Stephen T Jackson, Ph.D. (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 46
Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: Frontline observations and management responses
Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet cur
Authors
Christopher H. Guiterman, Rachel M. Gregg, Laura A.E. Marshall, Jill Beckmann, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Donald A. Falk, Jon Keeley, Anthony C. Caprio, Jonathan D. Coop, Paula J. Fornwalt, Collin Haffey, R. Keala Hagmann, Stephen Jackson, Ann M. Lynch, Ellis Margolis, Christopher Marks, Marc D. Meyer, Hugh Safford, Alexandra Dunya Syphard, Alan H. Taylor, Craig Wilcox, Dennis Carril, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, David W. Huffman, Jose Iniguez, Nicole A. Molinari, Christina M Restaino, Jens T. Stevens
A new approach to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model-based biodiversity projections for conservation policy formulation
Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of mo
Authors
Bonnie Myers, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Simon Ferrier, Ensheng Weng, Kimberly Ann Casey, Michael Harfoot, Stephen Jackson, Allison K. Leidner, Timothy M. Lenton, Gordon Luikart, Hiroyuki Matsuda, Nathalie Pettorelli, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Alexander C. Ruane, Gabriel B. Senay, Shawn P. Serbin, Derek P. Tittensor, T. Douglas Beard,
Managing for RADical ecosystem change: Applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework
Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates r
Authors
Abigail Lynch, Laura Thompson, Erik A. Beever, Augustin C. Engman, Cat Hawkins Hoffman, Stephen T. Jackson, Trevor J. Krabbenhoft, David J Lawrence, Douglas Limpinsel, Robert T. Magill, Tracy Melvin, John M. Morton, Robert Newman, Jay Peterson, Mark T. Porath, Frank J. Rahel, Gregor Schuurman, Suresh Sethi, Jennifer L. Wilkening
Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last mi
Authors
Christine R. Rollinson, Andria Dawson, Ann M. Raiho, John W. Williams, Michael C. Dietze, Thomas Hickler, Stephen T. Jackson, Jason S. McLachlan, David J.P. Moore, Benjamin Poulter, Tristan Quaife, Jorg Steinkamp, Mathias Trachsel
Spatial fingerprint of younger dryas cooling and warming in eastern North America
The Younger Dryas (YD, 12.9–11.7 ka) is the most recent, near-global interval of abrupt climate change with rates similar to modern global warming. Understanding the causes and biodiversity effects of YD climate changes requires determining the spatial fingerprints of past temperature changes. Here we build pollen-based and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether-based temperature reconstruc
Authors
David Fastovich, James M. Russell, Stephen T. Jackson, Teresa R. Krause, Shaun A. Marcott, John W. Williams
More than one way to kill a spruce forest: The role of fire and climate in the late-glacial termination of spruce woodlands across the southern Great Lakes
In the southern Great Lakes Region, North America, between 19,000 and 8,000 years ago, temperatures rose by 2.5–6.5°C and spruce Picea forests/woodlands were replaced by mixed-deciduous or pine Pinus forests. The demise of Picea forests/woodlands during the last deglaciation offers a model system for studying how changing climate and disturbance regimes interact to trigger declines of dominant spe
Authors
Allison Jensen, David Fastovich, Jacquelyn L. Gill, Stephen Jackson, James M. Russell, Joseph Bevington, Katherine Hayes
Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over exten
Authors
Damien A. Fordham, Stephen Jackson, Stuart C. Brown, Brian Huntley, Barry W. Brook, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, M. Thomas P. Gilbert, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Anders Svensson, Spyros Theodoridis, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Jessie C. Buettel, Elisabetta Canteri, Matthew McDowell, Ludovic Orlando, Julia Pilowsky, Carsten Rahbek, David Nogues-Bravo
Comparison of settlement-era vegetation reconstructions for STEPPS and REVEALS pollen–vegetation models in the northeastern United States
Reconstructions of prehistoric vegetation composition help establish natural baselines, variability, and trajectories of forest dynamics before and during the emergence of intensive anthropogenic land use. Pollen–vegetation models (PVMs) enable such reconstructions from fossil pollen assemblages using process-based representations of taxon-specific pollen production and dispersal. However, several
Authors
Mathias Trachsel, Andria Dawson, Christopher J. Paciorek, John W. Williams, Jason S. McLachlan, Charles V. Cogbill, David R. Foster, Simon J. Goring, Stephen Jackson, W. Wyatt Oswald, Bryan N. Shuman
Deglacial temperature controls on no-analog community establishment in the Great Lakes Region
Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics and no-analog communities in eastern North America is hampered by a scarcity of independent temperature indicators. We present a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature record from Bonnet Lake, Ohio (18 to 8 ka) and report uncertainty estimates based on Bayesian linear regression and bootstrapping. We also reanalyze a
Authors
David Fastovich, James M. Russell, Stephen Jackson, John W. Williams
The IPBES global assessment: Pathways to action
The first Global Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services found widespread, accelerating declines in Earth’s biodiversity and associated benefits to people from nature. Addressing these trends will require science-based policy responses to reduce impacts, especially at national to local scales. Effective scaling of science-policy efforts dr
Authors
Mary H. Ruckelshaus, Stephen T. Jackson, Harold A. Mooney, Katharine L. Jacobs, Karim- Aly S. Kassam, Mary T. K. Arroyo, András Báldi, Ann M. Bartuska, James W. Boyd, Lucas N. Joppa, Anikó Kovács-Hostyánszki, Jill Petraglia Parsons, Robert J. Scholes, Jason F. Shogren, Zhiyun Ouyang
Comparing and improving methods for reconstructing peatland water-table depth from testate amoebae
Proxies that use changes in the composition of ecological communities to reconstruct temporal changes in an environmental covariate are commonly used in paleoclimatology and paleolimnology. Existing methods, such as weighted averaging and modern analog technique,
relate compositional data to the covariate in very simple ways, and different methods are seldom compared systematically. We present a n
Authors
Connor Nolan, John Tipton, Robert K. Booth, Mevin Hooten, Stephen Jackson
Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition
Forest ecosystems in eastern North America were in flux over the last
several thousand years, well before Euro-American land clearance and the
20th-century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the
magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been
difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and
sedimentary processes that govern the relationship
Authors
Andria Dawson, Christopher J. Paciorek, Simon Goring, Stephen Jackson, Jason S. McLachlan, John W. Williams
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Contributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
USGS scientists are contributing to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy, a strategy intended to provide guidance so that efforts to conserve the iconic greater sage-grouse can be expanded to the entire sagebrush biome to benefit the people and wildlife that depend on it.
Actionable Science to Understand the Effects of Recent Temperature Increases to Inform Natural Resources Management in the Southwestern United States
In recent decades, average temperatures across the U.S. Southwest have increased substantially and precipitation patterns have increased in variability. The warmer temperatures directly impact water availability within Southwest ecosystems, including earlier snowmelts; reduced snowpacks, soil moisture, and streamflow; and lower humidity. Collectively, this has led to an increase in aridity across
Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling
As our world changes and communities are faced with uncertain future climate conditions, decision making and resource planning efforts can often no longer rely on historic scientific data alone. Scientific projections of what might be expected in the future are increasingly needed across the country and around the world. Scientists and researchers can develop these projections by using computer mo
Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S.
The climate of the North Central U.S. is driven by a combination of factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, the region’s complex topography which extends from the High Rockies to the Great Plains, and variations in hydrology. Together, these factors determine the sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and the services that they provide communities. In order to understand the vuln
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 46
Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: Frontline observations and management responses
Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet cur
Authors
Christopher H. Guiterman, Rachel M. Gregg, Laura A.E. Marshall, Jill Beckmann, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Donald A. Falk, Jon Keeley, Anthony C. Caprio, Jonathan D. Coop, Paula J. Fornwalt, Collin Haffey, R. Keala Hagmann, Stephen Jackson, Ann M. Lynch, Ellis Margolis, Christopher Marks, Marc D. Meyer, Hugh Safford, Alexandra Dunya Syphard, Alan H. Taylor, Craig Wilcox, Dennis Carril, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, David W. Huffman, Jose Iniguez, Nicole A. Molinari, Christina M Restaino, Jens T. Stevens
A new approach to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model-based biodiversity projections for conservation policy formulation
Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of mo
Authors
Bonnie Myers, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Simon Ferrier, Ensheng Weng, Kimberly Ann Casey, Michael Harfoot, Stephen Jackson, Allison K. Leidner, Timothy M. Lenton, Gordon Luikart, Hiroyuki Matsuda, Nathalie Pettorelli, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Alexander C. Ruane, Gabriel B. Senay, Shawn P. Serbin, Derek P. Tittensor, T. Douglas Beard,
Managing for RADical ecosystem change: Applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework
Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates r
Authors
Abigail Lynch, Laura Thompson, Erik A. Beever, Augustin C. Engman, Cat Hawkins Hoffman, Stephen T. Jackson, Trevor J. Krabbenhoft, David J Lawrence, Douglas Limpinsel, Robert T. Magill, Tracy Melvin, John M. Morton, Robert Newman, Jay Peterson, Mark T. Porath, Frank J. Rahel, Gregor Schuurman, Suresh Sethi, Jennifer L. Wilkening
Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last mi
Authors
Christine R. Rollinson, Andria Dawson, Ann M. Raiho, John W. Williams, Michael C. Dietze, Thomas Hickler, Stephen T. Jackson, Jason S. McLachlan, David J.P. Moore, Benjamin Poulter, Tristan Quaife, Jorg Steinkamp, Mathias Trachsel
Spatial fingerprint of younger dryas cooling and warming in eastern North America
The Younger Dryas (YD, 12.9–11.7 ka) is the most recent, near-global interval of abrupt climate change with rates similar to modern global warming. Understanding the causes and biodiversity effects of YD climate changes requires determining the spatial fingerprints of past temperature changes. Here we build pollen-based and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether-based temperature reconstruc
Authors
David Fastovich, James M. Russell, Stephen T. Jackson, Teresa R. Krause, Shaun A. Marcott, John W. Williams
More than one way to kill a spruce forest: The role of fire and climate in the late-glacial termination of spruce woodlands across the southern Great Lakes
In the southern Great Lakes Region, North America, between 19,000 and 8,000 years ago, temperatures rose by 2.5–6.5°C and spruce Picea forests/woodlands were replaced by mixed-deciduous or pine Pinus forests. The demise of Picea forests/woodlands during the last deglaciation offers a model system for studying how changing climate and disturbance regimes interact to trigger declines of dominant spe
Authors
Allison Jensen, David Fastovich, Jacquelyn L. Gill, Stephen Jackson, James M. Russell, Joseph Bevington, Katherine Hayes
Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over exten
Authors
Damien A. Fordham, Stephen Jackson, Stuart C. Brown, Brian Huntley, Barry W. Brook, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, M. Thomas P. Gilbert, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Anders Svensson, Spyros Theodoridis, Janet M. Wilmshurst, Jessie C. Buettel, Elisabetta Canteri, Matthew McDowell, Ludovic Orlando, Julia Pilowsky, Carsten Rahbek, David Nogues-Bravo
Comparison of settlement-era vegetation reconstructions for STEPPS and REVEALS pollen–vegetation models in the northeastern United States
Reconstructions of prehistoric vegetation composition help establish natural baselines, variability, and trajectories of forest dynamics before and during the emergence of intensive anthropogenic land use. Pollen–vegetation models (PVMs) enable such reconstructions from fossil pollen assemblages using process-based representations of taxon-specific pollen production and dispersal. However, several
Authors
Mathias Trachsel, Andria Dawson, Christopher J. Paciorek, John W. Williams, Jason S. McLachlan, Charles V. Cogbill, David R. Foster, Simon J. Goring, Stephen Jackson, W. Wyatt Oswald, Bryan N. Shuman
Deglacial temperature controls on no-analog community establishment in the Great Lakes Region
Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics and no-analog communities in eastern North America is hampered by a scarcity of independent temperature indicators. We present a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature record from Bonnet Lake, Ohio (18 to 8 ka) and report uncertainty estimates based on Bayesian linear regression and bootstrapping. We also reanalyze a
Authors
David Fastovich, James M. Russell, Stephen Jackson, John W. Williams
The IPBES global assessment: Pathways to action
The first Global Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services found widespread, accelerating declines in Earth’s biodiversity and associated benefits to people from nature. Addressing these trends will require science-based policy responses to reduce impacts, especially at national to local scales. Effective scaling of science-policy efforts dr
Authors
Mary H. Ruckelshaus, Stephen T. Jackson, Harold A. Mooney, Katharine L. Jacobs, Karim- Aly S. Kassam, Mary T. K. Arroyo, András Báldi, Ann M. Bartuska, James W. Boyd, Lucas N. Joppa, Anikó Kovács-Hostyánszki, Jill Petraglia Parsons, Robert J. Scholes, Jason F. Shogren, Zhiyun Ouyang
Comparing and improving methods for reconstructing peatland water-table depth from testate amoebae
Proxies that use changes in the composition of ecological communities to reconstruct temporal changes in an environmental covariate are commonly used in paleoclimatology and paleolimnology. Existing methods, such as weighted averaging and modern analog technique,
relate compositional data to the covariate in very simple ways, and different methods are seldom compared systematically. We present a n
Authors
Connor Nolan, John Tipton, Robert K. Booth, Mevin Hooten, Stephen Jackson
Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition
Forest ecosystems in eastern North America were in flux over the last
several thousand years, well before Euro-American land clearance and the
20th-century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the
magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been
difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and
sedimentary processes that govern the relationship
Authors
Andria Dawson, Christopher J. Paciorek, Simon Goring, Stephen Jackson, Jason S. McLachlan, John W. Williams
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Contributions to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy
USGS scientists are contributing to the development of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Sagebrush Conservation Strategy, a strategy intended to provide guidance so that efforts to conserve the iconic greater sage-grouse can be expanded to the entire sagebrush biome to benefit the people and wildlife that depend on it.
Actionable Science to Understand the Effects of Recent Temperature Increases to Inform Natural Resources Management in the Southwestern United States
In recent decades, average temperatures across the U.S. Southwest have increased substantially and precipitation patterns have increased in variability. The warmer temperatures directly impact water availability within Southwest ecosystems, including earlier snowmelts; reduced snowpacks, soil moisture, and streamflow; and lower humidity. Collectively, this has led to an increase in aridity across
Workshops and Collaborations to Improve Biodiversity and Climate Modeling
As our world changes and communities are faced with uncertain future climate conditions, decision making and resource planning efforts can often no longer rely on historic scientific data alone. Scientific projections of what might be expected in the future are increasingly needed across the country and around the world. Scientists and researchers can develop these projections by using computer mo
Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S.
The climate of the North Central U.S. is driven by a combination of factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, the region’s complex topography which extends from the High Rockies to the Great Plains, and variations in hydrology. Together, these factors determine the sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and the services that they provide communities. In order to understand the vuln