Permafrost is a layer of perennially frozen soil that primarily exists in and around the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the world. While a shallow near-surface soil layer (called active layer) thaws during the summer and re-freezes in the winter, the underlying permafrost remains perennially frozen, often underlying buildings, roads, and other infrastructure.
As warmer temperatures become more common, thawing of permafrost could have major consequences for Alaska. Where thawing has already occurred, dramatic changes in ecosystems and existing infrastructure are evident. For example, thawing permafrost along the ocean shore and riverbanks in Northern Alaska is causing substantial coastal erosion and is impacting Native Alaska villages and threatening lives and properties.
Despite our current general understanding of how permafrost is changing and may change in the future, it is still very poorly understood how these changes will affect ecosystems and infrastructure on local and regional scales. To help provide this information, scientists are using the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) to develop possible future scenarios of permafrost changes in the Alaskan Arctic and to estimate areas and rates of permafrost thaw and degradation. Use of the IEM allows us to map past and present permafrost conditions and future permafrost dynamics within the North Slope of Alaska and in the vicinity of the community of Selawik, Alaska.
