Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time, therefore advance understanding of a) the dynamics of and responses to future wildfire, and b)management planning for and adaptation to those projected changes. Through existing research-management collaborations, the Alaska CASC has iteratively refined its approach to actionable (both by fire managers and agency planners) wildfire research on three primary foci. Additionally, we will work with the National and Regional CASCs (NRCASC) to collaboratively tailor the specific topics and approaches for the research topic to ensure that it is both regionally relevant and contributes to and informs a national level synthesis of the “future of fire”.
The first focus will be the role fire may have in shaping and transforming Alaska’s landscapes, depending on changes in climate and fire management decisions. The second focus will be on the future of fire hazards in Alaska, as current fire hazard models have yet to be applied in Alaska’s most historically fire-prone areas. The third focus will look at fire behavior in transformed landscapes under future extreme weather caused by a changing climate. The scientific and practical uncertainties surrounding the use of fire in these contexts are unexplored in Alaska and provide an opportunity to address both cutting-edge research and co-production with fire management.