A Roadmap for Developing Resilient Coastal Shellfish Populations: Using Spatial and Process-Based Modelling for Restoration Under Current and Predicted Future Water Quality Conditions Active

Estuaries support valuable recreation, fisheries, and aquaculture and are dependent on healthy and vibrant ecosystems. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, estuaries sustain local economies through their high productivity. They also receive over 50% of the United States watershed discharge, and water quality within these estuaries is impacted by local management actions.  Within these estuaries, eastern oysters serve as both a critical fishery and ecosystem engineers, providing vital habitat and filtering water which improves water quality. Ensuring resilient oyster populations is critical to the functioning of these estuaries, which support many species such as blue crabs, brown shrimps, and white shrimps.  However, climate change is predicted to impact the northern Gulf of Mexico through increased temperatures, altered precipitation, and storm pattern changes directly and indirectly through upstream changes in precipitation. Recent focus on restoration of wild populations, and development of the aquaculture industry has fueled extensive planning to ensure sustainable oyster populations for future generations. Yet, given the rapidly changing environment, decision-makers lack a robust tool to guide site selection for their plans.



This project will provide data and tools to assist managers to identify suitable locations for ensuring resilient and sustainable wild populations of oysters and support future production and aquaculture success. This will include producing spatial maps displaying oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality outcomes across estuaries from Texas to Louisiana, under current and future conditions. Applications to other shellfish species of interest could benefit from the same tools.



The results will provide a clear spatial roadmap indicating locations most likely to successfully restore and maintain resilient oyster populations or support a productive oyster fishery. This roadmap may then be used by resource managers working to efficiently restore and maintain oyster populations and healthy estuaries to support a viable oyster fishery into the future.