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National Seismic Hazard Models & Products

Welcome to the National Seismic Hazard Model

Table of Contents

Introduction
Current Updates
National Seismic Hazard Models
Software, Web Tools, and Services
Other Products

 

Introduction

National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) forecast where, how much, and how often the ground could shake from potential future earthquakes. The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) produces NSHMs for the conterminous U.S., Alaska, Hawaii, and the inhabited U.S. territories. These forecasts provide important information that can inform public policy decisions to help keep people safe from earthquake hazards and risks.

The NSHMs are consensus-based models that undergo a thorough review process. This process includes public workshops and technical review by the NSHM Steering Committee. Read more about it!

Current Updates

The seismic hazard models are improved and updated on a periodic basis by incorporating new information. Tabulated below are the deadlines for community contributions for the NSHMs.

RegionPublication DateCommunity Contributions Deadline
50-State2029Dec. 31, 2026 + 1-month extension
GNMI & AmSam2027Jun. 30, 2024
PRVI2025Dec. 31, 2022

Only published (or accepted for publication), peer-reviewed data and models will be considered. The sooner they are brought to our attention, the more likely it is we can include them in the updated NSHMs, resources permitting. Please bring the publications to our attention by emailing nshmp-support@usgs.gov. Someone will reply to confirm receipt and request additional information, if needed.

National Seismic Hazard Models

RegionRelease
Conterminous U.S. (CONUS)2023, 2018, 2014, 2008, 2002, 1996
Alaska2023, 2007, 1999
Hawaii2023 (2021), 2001 (1998)
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands2025, 2003
Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern 
Mariana Islands, and American Samoa
2027, 2012
1-year Induced Seismicity Forecasts for 
the Central and Eastern U.S. (CEUS)
2018, 2017, 2016

Software, Web Tools, and Services

  • USGS Earthquake Hazard Toolbox - Web applications for querying and computing hazard from USGS national seismic hazard models.
  • nshmp-haz - Suite of software codes for performing probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses.
  • OpenSHA - Additional software codes for PSHA.

Other Products


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