Allison Shumway is a geophysicist with the Earthquake Hazards Program.
Science and Products
Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2
Wednesday, November 18, 2019Virtual Meeting
2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting
Friday, January 22, 2021Virtual Meeting
Recurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop
Tuesday, February 23, 2021Virtual Meeting
Filter Total Items: 18
Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii
The 2021 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii succeeds the twenty-year-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the ground shaking forecasts. Output from the model includes probabilistic seismic hazard curves calculated for a 0.02° x 0.02° grid of latitude/longitude locations across Hawaii. The new model provides an expanded suite of ha
Data Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
The updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model includes new ground motion models, aleatory uncertainty, and soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S. and incorporates basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western U.S. (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard curves for an expanded set of spectral
Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site effects m
Data Release for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern U.S. from Induced and Natural Earthquakes. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral accelerati
Data Release for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground accelera
Data Release for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard cruve data, gridded ground motion data, mapped gridded ground motion values, and the seismicity catalog are available for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Hawaii for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404
Data Release for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded ground motion data and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual proba
Data Release for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Afghanistan for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 y
Data Release for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annua
Data Release for the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
(1) Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb).
(2) Gridded (0.05 degree by 0.05 degree) ground motion values and hazard maps are
Data Release for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (an
Data Release for the 1996 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 1996 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground accelera
Filter Total Items: 14
2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as t
Seismic hazard in the eastern United States
The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources u
2018 one‐year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts. Rates of earthquakes across the United States M≥3.0 gre
Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America
We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and grou
Additional period and site class maps for the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (2014 NSHM; Petersen and others, 2014, 2015) included probabilistic ground motion maps for 2 percent and 10 percent probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, derived from seismic hazard curves for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral accelerations (S
The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA
We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about earthquake ground
Evaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.
Ground motion model (GMM) selection and weighting introduces a significant source of uncertainty in United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazard models. The increase in moderate moment magnitude induced earthquakes (Mw 4 to 5.8) in Oklahoma and Kansas since 2009, due to increased wastewater injection related to oil and gas production (Keranen et al., 2013; 2014; Weingarten et al., 2015;
Preliminary 2018 national seismic hazard model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard model for the conterminous U.S. will be updated in 2018 and 2020 to coincide with the Building Seismic Safety Council’s Project 17 timeline for development of new building code design criteria. The two closely timed updates are planned to allow more time for the Provisions Update Committee to analyze the consequences of the hazard model chang
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associated
Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectoni
Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence
Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of peak ground acceleration an
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data
As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazar
Science and Products
- Science
Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2
Wednesday, November 18, 2019Virtual Meeting2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting
Friday, January 22, 2021Virtual MeetingRecurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop
Tuesday, February 23, 2021Virtual Meeting - Data
Filter Total Items: 18
Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii
The 2021 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii succeeds the twenty-year-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the ground shaking forecasts. Output from the model includes probabilistic seismic hazard curves calculated for a 0.02° x 0.02° grid of latitude/longitude locations across Hawaii. The new model provides an expanded suite of haData Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)
The updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model includes new ground motion models, aleatory uncertainty, and soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S. and incorporates basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western U.S. (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard curves for an expanded set of spectralData Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site effects mData Release for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern U.S. from Induced and Natural Earthquakes. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleratiData Release for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground acceleraData Release for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard cruve data, gridded ground motion data, mapped gridded ground motion values, and the seismicity catalog are available for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Hawaii for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404Data Release for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded ground motion data and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probaData Release for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Afghanistan for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 yData Release for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annuaData Release for the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. (1) Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). (2) Gridded (0.05 degree by 0.05 degree) ground motion values and hazard maps areData Release for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (anData Release for the 1996 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.
Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 1996 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground accelera - Publications
Filter Total Items: 14
2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as tSeismic hazard in the eastern United States
The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources u2018 one‐year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts. Rates of earthquakes across the United States M≥3.0 greSeismic hazard, risk, and design for South America
We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and grouAdditional period and site class maps for the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (2014 NSHM; Petersen and others, 2014, 2015) included probabilistic ground motion maps for 2 percent and 10 percent probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, derived from seismic hazard curves for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral accelerations (SThe science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA
We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide important, additional information about earthquake groundEvaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.
Ground motion model (GMM) selection and weighting introduces a significant source of uncertainty in United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazard models. The increase in moderate moment magnitude induced earthquakes (Mw 4 to 5.8) in Oklahoma and Kansas since 2009, due to increased wastewater injection related to oil and gas production (Keranen et al., 2013; 2014; Weingarten et al., 2015;Preliminary 2018 national seismic hazard model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard model for the conterminous U.S. will be updated in 2018 and 2020 to coincide with the Building Seismic Safety Council’s Project 17 timeline for development of new building code design criteria. The two closely timed updates are planned to allow more time for the Provisions Update Committee to analyze the consequences of the hazard model changThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associatedEvaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectoniEvaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence
Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of peak ground acceleration anThe 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data
As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazar