Allison M Shumway
Science and Products
Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped...
McNamara, Daniel E.; Wolin, Emily; Powers, Peter M.; Shumway, Allison; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rekoske, John; Thompson, Eric M.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D. Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence
Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (Mw">Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using...
McNamara, Daniel E.; Wolin, Emily; Powers, Peter M.; Shumway, Allison; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rekoske, John; Thompson, Eric M.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D. The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median...
Petersen, Mark D.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Frankel, Arthur; Rezaeian, Sanaz; McNamara, Daniel E.; Luco, Nicolas; Boyd, Oliver S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Thompson, Eric M.; Hoover, Susan M.; Clayton, Brandon; Field, Edward H.; Zeng, Yuehua Evaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.
Ground motion model (GMM) selection and weighting introduces a significant source of uncertainty in United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazard models. The increase in moderate moment magnitude induced earthquakes (Mw 4 to 5.8) in Oklahoma and Kansas since 2009, due to increased wastewater injection related to oil and gas production (...
McNamara, Daniel E.; Petersen, Mark D.; Thompson, Eric M.; Powers, Peter M.; Shumway, Allison; Hoover, Susan M.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Wolin, Emily Preliminary 2018 national seismic hazard model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard model for the conterminous U.S. will be updated in 2018 and 2020 to coincide with the Building Seismic Safety Council’s Project 17 timeline for development of new building code design criteria. The two closely timed updates are planned to allow more time for the Provisions Update Committee to...
Petersen, Mark D.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Moschetti, Morgan P.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Luco, Nicolas; Hoover, Susan M.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.
Additional period and site class maps for the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (2014 NSHM; Petersen and others, 2014, 2015) included probabilistic ground motion maps for 2 percent and 10 percent probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, derived from seismic hazard curves for peak ground...
Shumway, Allison; Petersen, Mark D.; Powers, Peter M.; Rezaeian, Sanaz The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA
We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide...
Moschetti, Morgan P.; Chang, Sandra P.; Crouse, C.B; Frankel, Arthur; Graves, Robert; Puangnak, H; Luco, Nicolas; Goulet, Christine A.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Petersen, Mark D.; Callaghan, Scott; Jordan, T.H.; Milner, Kevin R. 2018 one‐year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts....
Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Earle, Paul S.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Norbeck, Jack; Cochran, Elizabeth S. Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America
We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake...
Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison 2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model...
Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S. 2017 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
We produce the 2017 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one-year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model...
Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S. Seismic hazard in the eastern United States
The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for...
Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver S.; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison