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Allison M Shumway

Allison Shumway is a research geophysicist with the Earthquake Hazards Program.

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 21

Forecasting the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model using gridded seismicity

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses such as the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) typically rely on declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term time‐independent (background) seismicity rate to forecast future seismicity. In support of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) 2023 update to the NSHM, we update the methods used to develop this background o
Authors
Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Allison Shumway, Justin Rubinstein, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Morgan P. Moschetti, Jason M. Altekruse, Kevin R. Milner
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Earthquake rupture forecast model construction for the 2023 U.S. 50‐State National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Central and eastern U.S. fault‐based source model

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2023 50‐State National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), we make modest revisions and additions to the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) fault‐based seismic source model that result in locally substantial hazard changes. The CEUS fault‐based source model was last updated as part of the 2014 NSHM and considered new information from the Seismic Source Characterizatio
Authors
Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Gabriel Toro, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Julie A Herrick, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Demi Leafar Girot
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increase
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Ned Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nico Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael L. Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Frederick Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. Witter
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemi

Authors
Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Frederick Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Allison Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng-Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin Rubinstein, Julie A Herrick
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Earthquake Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey coastal plain amplification virtual workshop

In early October of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held a virtual workshop to discuss Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains site-response models. Earthquake researchers came together to assess (1) research related to proposed Coastal Plains amplification models and (2) USGS plans for implementing these models. Presentations spanned a broad range of topics from Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains
Authors
Oliver S. Boyd, Thomas L. Pratt, Martin C. Chapman, Allison Shumway, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, Mark D. Petersen
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that differ in h
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Daniel E. McNamara, P. Okubo, Yuehua Zeng, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Brian Shiro
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Volcano Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the western US

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous U.S. NSHM includes significant changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs), most of which are necessary to enable the new multi-p
Authors
Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nico Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Eric M. Thompson
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs). Most of the changes are motivated by the new multi-p
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nico Luco, Arthur Frankel, Morgan P. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson, Daniel McNamara
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed

The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smoothe
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles S Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel McNamara, Nico Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Ned Field, Yuehua Zeng
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data

As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazar
Authors
Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Brandon Clayton
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectoni
Authors
Daniel E. McNamara, Emily Wolin, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Morgan P. Moschetti, John Rekoske, Eric M. Thompson, Charles Mueller, Mark D. Petersen
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence

Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (⁠Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of peak ground acceleration an
Authors
Daniel E. McNamara, Emily Wolin, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Morgan P. Moschetti, John Rekoske, Eric M. Thompson, Charles Mueller, Mark D. Petersen
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) National Seismic Hazard Model Program (NSHMP) hazard assessment of 2003.

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
Learn More
link
NSHMP Models, Codes and Catalogs - National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

2023 50-State NSHM Update Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting final results of the 2023 50-State NSHM Update at this public workshop.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

2023 50-State NSHM Update Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting final results of the 2023 50-State NSHM Update at this public workshop.
Learn More
link
Map shows land and ocean with lines drawn to show plate boundaries and shading to show hazards.

Recurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop

Tuesday, February 23, 2021 Virtual Meeting
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

Recurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop

Tuesday, February 23, 2021 Virtual Meeting
Learn More
link
landslide image

2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting

Friday, January 22, 2021 Virtual Meeting
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting

Friday, January 22, 2021 Virtual Meeting
Learn More
link
USGS

Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2

Wednesday, November 18, 2019 Virtual Meeting
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2

Wednesday, November 18, 2019 Virtual Meeting
Learn More
Filter Total Items: 21

Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview

This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to the
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii

The 2021 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii succeeds the twenty-year-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the ground shaking forecasts. Output from the model includes probabilistic seismic hazard curves calculated for a 0.02° x 0.02° grid of latitude/longitude locations across Hawaii. The new model provides an expanded suite of ha
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)

The updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model includes new ground motion models, aleatory uncertainty, and soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S. and incorporates basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western U.S. (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard curves for an expanded set of spectral
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed

This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site effects m
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2010 Haiti Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2010 Haiti Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps are available for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years and 10 percent in 50 years, assuming firm rock soil condi
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes

Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern U.S. from Induced and Natural Earthquakes. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral accelerati
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.

Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground accelera
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard cruve data, gridded ground motion data, mapped gridded ground motion values, and the seismicity catalog are available for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Hawaii for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded ground motion data and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual proba
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Afghanistan for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 y
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annua
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (an
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map
Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map
Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map
Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Figure 2.

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Figure 2.

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Figure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Figure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could...

Read Article
New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

A new U.S. Geological Survey study indicates that the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Island of Hawaiʻi and neighboring islands with active volcanic...

Read Article

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 21

Forecasting the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model using gridded seismicity

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses such as the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) typically rely on declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term time‐independent (background) seismicity rate to forecast future seismicity. In support of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) 2023 update to the NSHM, we update the methods used to develop this background o
Authors
Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Allison Shumway, Justin Rubinstein, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Morgan P. Moschetti, Jason M. Altekruse, Kevin R. Milner
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Earthquake rupture forecast model construction for the 2023 U.S. 50‐State National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Central and eastern U.S. fault‐based source model

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2023 50‐State National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), we make modest revisions and additions to the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) fault‐based seismic source model that result in locally substantial hazard changes. The CEUS fault‐based source model was last updated as part of the 2014 NSHM and considered new information from the Seismic Source Characterizatio
Authors
Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Gabriel Toro, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Julie A Herrick, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Demi Leafar Girot
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increase
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Ned Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nico Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael L. Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Frederick Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. Witter
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemi

Authors
Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Frederick Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Allison Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng-Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin Rubinstein, Julie A Herrick
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Earthquake Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey coastal plain amplification virtual workshop

In early October of 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held a virtual workshop to discuss Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plains site-response models. Earthquake researchers came together to assess (1) research related to proposed Coastal Plains amplification models and (2) USGS plans for implementing these models. Presentations spanned a broad range of topics from Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains
Authors
Oliver S. Boyd, Thomas L. Pratt, Martin C. Chapman, Allison Shumway, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, Mark D. Petersen
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that differ in h
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Charles Mueller, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Daniel E. McNamara, P. Okubo, Yuehua Zeng, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Brian Shiro
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Volcano Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the western US

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous U.S. NSHM includes significant changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs), most of which are necessary to enable the new multi-p
Authors
Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nico Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Eric M. Thompson
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs). Most of the changes are motivated by the new multi-p
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nico Luco, Arthur Frankel, Morgan P. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson, Daniel McNamara
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motion maps changed

The 2018 US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) incorporates new data and updated science to improve the underlying earthquake and ground motion forecasts for the conterminous United States. The NSHM considers many new data and component input models: (1) new earthquakes between 2013 and 2017 and updated earthquake magnitudes for some earlier earthquakes; (2) two updated smoothe
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles S Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel McNamara, Nico Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Ned Field, Yuehua Zeng
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data

As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazar
Authors
Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Brandon Clayton
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s) for tectoni
Authors
Daniel E. McNamara, Emily Wolin, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Morgan P. Moschetti, John Rekoske, Eric M. Thompson, Charles Mueller, Mark D. Petersen
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence

Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (⁠Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of peak ground acceleration an
Authors
Daniel E. McNamara, Emily Wolin, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Morgan P. Moschetti, John Rekoske, Eric M. Thompson, Charles Mueller, Mark D. Petersen
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link
Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) National Seismic Hazard Model Program (NSHMP) hazard assessment of 2003.

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

2025 PRVI NSHM Update & Beyond Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting preliminary results of the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands NSHM Update at this public workshop. On Day 1 we will focus on the 2025 PRVI update and on Day 2 we will present current data collection activities. These presentations will be technical but we encourage participation from users and stakeholders.
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NSHMP Models, Codes and Catalogs - National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

2023 50-State NSHM Update Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting final results of the 2023 50-State NSHM Update at this public workshop.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

2023 50-State NSHM Update Workshop

The National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will be presenting final results of the 2023 50-State NSHM Update at this public workshop.
Learn More
link
Map shows land and ocean with lines drawn to show plate boundaries and shading to show hazards.

Recurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop

Tuesday, February 23, 2021 Virtual Meeting
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

Recurrence Models for Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone Workshop

Tuesday, February 23, 2021 Virtual Meeting
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link
landslide image

2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting

Friday, January 22, 2021 Virtual Meeting
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

2023 50-State Update of the NSHMs Kickoff Meeting

Friday, January 22, 2021 Virtual Meeting
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link
USGS

Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2

Wednesday, November 18, 2019 Virtual Meeting
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

Update of the Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model Workshop #2

Wednesday, November 18, 2019 Virtual Meeting
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Filter Total Items: 21

Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview

This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to the
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii

The 2021 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii succeeds the twenty-year-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the ground shaking forecasts. Output from the model includes probabilistic seismic hazard curves calculated for a 0.02° x 0.02° grid of latitude/longitude locations across Hawaii. The new model provides an expanded suite of ha
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for Additional Period and Site Class Data for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous United States (ver. 1.1, February 2020)

The updated 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model includes new ground motion models, aleatory uncertainty, and soil amplification factors for the central and eastern U.S. and incorporates basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western U.S. (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard curves for an expanded set of spectral
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed

This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site effects m
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2010 Haiti Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2010 Haiti Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps are available for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years and 10 percent in 50 years, assuming firm rock soil condi
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes

Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern U.S. from Induced and Natural Earthquakes. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral accelerati
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S.

Seismicity catalogs, gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Model for the Conterminous U.S. Seismicity catalogs are available for the western U.S. (in Mw) and central and eastern U.S. (in mb). Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of the conterminous U.S. for peak ground accelera
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard cruve data, gridded ground motion data, mapped gridded ground motion values, and the seismicity catalog are available for the 1998 Hawaii Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Hawaii for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded ground motion data and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 1999 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual proba
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Afghanistan Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Afghanistan for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 y
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2007 Alaska Seismic Hazard Model. Time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annua
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Data Release for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded seismic hazard curve data, gridded ground motion data, and mapped gridded ground motion values are available for the 2012 Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Seismic Hazard Model. Probabilistic seismic hazard data and maps of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.2 and 1.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (an
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center
Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map
Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map
Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map
Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Figure 3. Seismicity of Hawaii from 2021 Hawaii National Seismic Hazard Map

Seismicity of Hawaii: earthquakes M>5 from the 1840-1899, 1900-1959, 1960-2019 catalogs shown separately. While earthquake activity remains high today, it seems to have decreased over the past 60 years, which could be related to less volcanic activity at Mauna Loa. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Figure 2.

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Earthquakes on the island of Hawaii

Figure 2.

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Figure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Chance of earthquakes in Hawaii

Figure 1. Chance of minor or greater damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000. 

By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Communications and Publishing
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US

USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could...

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New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

New USGS Model Shows Earthquake Hazard Probability for Hawaiian Islands

A new U.S. Geological Survey study indicates that the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Island of Hawaiʻi and neighboring islands with active volcanic...

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