Nicolas Luco
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS...
The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs)....
Rezaeian, Sanaz; Powers, Peter M.; Shumway, Allison; Petersen, Mark D.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Thompson, Eric M.; McNamara, Daniel A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis
This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard....
Baker, Jack W.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Goulet, Christine A.; Luco, Nicolas; Teng, Ganyu Tall building performance-based seismic design using SCEC broadband platform site-specific ground motion simulations
The scarcity of strong ground motion records presents a challenge for making reliable performance assessments of tall buildings whose seismic design is controlled by large-magnitude and close-distance earthquakes. This challenge can be addressed using broadband ground-motion simulation methods to generate records with site-specific characteristics...
Zhong, Kuanshi; Lin, Ting; Deierlein, Greg; Graves, Robert; Silva, Fabio; Luco, Nicolas Proposed AASHTO guidelines for performance-based seismic bridge design
No abstract available.
Murphy, Thomas P.; Marsh, Lee; Bennion, Stuart; Buckle, Ian G.; Luco, Nicolas; Anderson, Donald; Kowalsky, Mervyn; Restrepo, Jose Selecting three components of ground motions from Conditional Spectra for multiple stripe analyses
For complex structures where the seismic response depends appreciably on the vertical (V) component of ground motion (GM) (e.g., base-isolated buildings, long-span bridges, dams, nuclear power plants), incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is commonly utilized to estimate seismic risk, where the V components of GM are selected and scaled based on the...
Kwong, Neal (Simon) S; Jaiswal, Kishor; Luco, Nicolas; Baker, J.W. Procedures for developing multi-period response spectra at non-conterminous United States sites
This study complements proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE 7-22 Seismic...
Tong, Mai; Hanson, Robert D.; Kircher, Charles A; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Luco, Nicolas Risk-targeted alternatives to deterministic ground motion caps in U.S. seismic provisions
Since their inception over 20 years ago, the maximum considered earthquake ground motion maps in U.S. building codes have capped probabilistic values with deterministic ground motions from characteristic earthquakes on known active faults. This practice has increasingly been called into question both because of spatially non-uniform risk levels...
Stewart, Jonathan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Hooper, John D; Crouse, C. B. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scale: State of the art and future challenges
Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic-source and ground-...
Gerstenberger, M. C.; Marzocchi, W.; Allen, T. J.; Pagani, M.; Adams, Janice; Danciu, L.; Field, Edward H.; Fujiwara, H.; Luco, Nicolas; Ma, K-F; Meletti, C.; Petersen, Mark D. Proposed multi-period response spectra and ground motion requirements of the 2020 Recommended Provisions and ASCE 7-22
This paper summarizes a comprehensive set of proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE...
Kircher, Charles A; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Luco, Nicolas The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median...
Petersen, Mark D.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Frankel, Arthur; Rezaeian, Sanaz; McNamara, Daniel E.; Luco, Nicolas; Boyd, Oliver S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Thompson, Eric M.; Hoover, Susan M.; Clayton, Brandon; Field, Edward H.; Zeng, Yuehua Increases in life-safety risks to building occupants from induced earthquakes in the central United States
Earthquake occurrence rates in some parts of the central United States have been elevated for a number of years; this increase has been widely attributed to deep wastewater injection associated with oil and gas activities. This induced seismicity has caused damage to buildings and infrastructure and substantial public concern. In March 2016, the U...
Liu, Taojun; Luco, Nicolas; Liel, Abbie B. Updates to USGS national seismic hazard model (NSHM) and design ground motion maps for 2020 NEHRP recommended provisions
This presentation summarizes the proposed updates to earthquake design ground motions for the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions, expected to be incorporated into the ASCE 7-22 Standard. The implications of these updates on the values of design ground motions for example locations in both conterminous and nonconterminous U.S...
Rezaeian, Sanaz; Luco, Nicolas
Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator
This web application can be used to calculate risk-targeted ground motion values in accordance with “Method 2” of 2010 ASCE 7 Standard Section 21.2.1.2.