Nicolas Luco
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS...
A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis
This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard....
Baker, Jack W.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Goulet, Christine A.; Luco, Nicolas; Teng, Ganyu Selecting three components of ground motions from Conditional Spectra for multiple stripe analyses
For complex structures where the seismic response depends appreciably on the vertical (V) component of ground motion (GM) (e.g., base-isolated buildings, long-span bridges, dams, nuclear power plants), incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is commonly utilized to estimate seismic risk, where the V components of GM are selected and scaled based on the...
Kwong, Neal (Simon) S; Jaiswal, Kishor; Luco, Nicolas; Baker, J.W. Procedures for developing multi-period response spectra at non-conterminous United States sites
This study complements proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE 7-22 Seismic...
Tong, Mai; Hanson, Robert D.; Kircher, Charles A; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Luco, Nicolas Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scale: State of the art and future challenges
Seismic hazard modelling is a multi-disciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic-source and ground-...
Gerstenberger, M. C.; Marzocchi, W.; Allen, T. J.; Pagani, M.; Adams, Janice; Danciu, L.; Field, Edward H.; Fujiwara, H.; Luco, Nicolas; Ma, K-F; Meletti, C.; Petersen, Mark D. Proposed multi-period response spectra and ground motion requirements of the 2020 Recommended Provisions and ASCE 7-22
This paper summarizes a comprehensive set of proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE...
Kircher, Charles A; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Luco, Nicolas The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median...
Petersen, Mark D.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Frankel, Arthur; Rezaeian, Sanaz; McNamara, Daniel E.; Luco, Nicolas; Boyd, Oliver S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Thompson, Eric M.; Hoover, Susan M.; Clayton, Brandon; Field, Edward H.; Zeng, Yuehua Increases in life-safety risks to building occupants from induced earthquakes in the central United States
Earthquake occurrence rates in some parts of the central United States have been elevated for a number of years; this increase has been widely attributed to deep wastewater injection associated with oil and gas activities. This induced seismicity has caused damage to buildings and infrastructure and substantial public concern. In March 2016, the U...
Liu, Taojun; Luco, Nicolas; Liel, Abbie B. Updates to USGS national seismic hazard model (NSHM) and design ground motion maps for 2020 NEHRP recommended provisions
This presentation summarizes the proposed updates to earthquake design ground motions for the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions, expected to be incorporated into the ASCE 7-22 Standard. The implications of these updates on the values of design ground motions for example locations in both conterminous and nonconterminous U.S...
Rezaeian, Sanaz; Luco, Nicolas Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply
Mineral resources, and their mining and enrichment operations, are not equally distributed across Earth. The concentration of mineral supply in certain regions, owing to the geology or geography of the mineral resource, raises the level of risk related to supply disruption. Where mineral production coincides with areas prone to natural hazards,...
Schnebele, Emily; Jaiswal, Kishor; Luco, Nicolas; Nassar, Nedal T. Seismic loss and damage in light-frame wood buildings from sequences of induced earthquakes
Activities related to oil and gas production, especially deep disposal of wastewater, have led to sequences of induced earthquakes in the central U.S. This study aims to quantify damage to and seismic losses for light-frame wood buildings when subjected to sequences of induced, small to moderate magnitude, events. To conduct this investigation,...
Chase, Robert E; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Baird, Bridger W Seismic design and hazard maps: Before and after
The 1994 Northridge earthquake generated world-record ground motions. At the time, the horizontal peak ground acceleration of 1.8 g measured by a seismometer in Tarzana was the largest ever. The same is true of the peak ground velocity of 148 cm/s measured in Granada Hills. Both measurements were within approximately 15 km of the source...
Luco, Nicolas Implications of seismic design values for economic losses
In the U.S., seismic design values are determined mostly through a risk-targeting process, which combines information about the expected collapse fragility of code-designed structures with seismic hazard at a site. However, this target only applies where the risk-targeted ground motions govern the design. In other areas, primarily close to active...
Cook, Dustin; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Almeter, Edward; Haselton, Curt B.