A simulation-based approach for estimating premining water quality: Red Mountain Creek, Colorado

Regulatory agencies are often charged with the task of setting site-specific numeric water quality standards for impaired streams. This task is particularly difficult for streams draining highly mineralized watersheds with past mining activity. Baseline water quality data obtained prior to mining are often non-existent and application of generic water quality standards developed for unmineralized watersheds is suspect given the geology of most watersheds affected by mining. Various approaches have been used to estimate premining conditions, but none of the existing approaches rigorously consider the physical and geochemical processes that ultimately determine instream water quality. An approach based on simulation modeling is therefore proposed herein. The approach utilizes synoptic data that provide spatially-detailed profiles of concentration, streamflow, and constituent load along the study reach. This field data set is used to calibrate a reactive stream transport model that considers the suite of physical and geochemical processes that affect constituent concentrations during instream transport. A key input to the model is the quality and quantity of waters entering the study reach. This input is based on chemical analyses available from synoptic sampling and observed increases in streamflow along the study reach. Given the calibrated model, additional simulations are conducted to estimate premining conditions. In these simulations, the chemistry of mining-affected sources is replaced with the chemistry of waters that are thought to be unaffected by mining (proximal, premining analogues). The resultant simulations provide estimates of premining water quality that reflect both the reduced loads that were present prior to mining and the processes that affect these loads as they are transported downstream. This simulation-based approach is demonstrated using data from Red Mountain Creek, Colorado, a small stream draining a heavily-mined watershed. Model application to the premining problem for Red Mountain Creek is based on limited field reconnaissance and chemical analyses; additional field work and analyses may be needed to develop definitive, quantitative estimates of premining water quality.