The blind men and the elephant: Concerns about the use of juvenile proportion data

Juvenile proportion data in shorebirds are being used with increasing frequency to estimate recruitment and even breeding success. Although this area of investigation holds great promise, flaws in current study designs preclude great confidence in the broad-scale inferences being drawn. We present data from our own investigations on juvenile proportions in Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica in Alaska to illustrate the significance of some of these problems. We then explore issues of study design, specifically bias, precision, untested assumptions and the use of correlations for interpreting juvenile proportion data. The issue of bias is particularly important, because inferences about shorebird productivity are being expanded to geographic areas well beyond what the data legitimately allow. Until studies of juvenile proportions are more rigorously designed and implemented, we suggest that many of the inferences about shorebird productivity based on such data are premature and may lead to management decisions that are detrimental to the conservation of shorebirds.