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Economic impacts of a California tsunami

May 1, 2016

The economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, and U.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier) effects of lost production in industries upstream and downstream in the supply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargo disruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach (POLA/POLB), property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundated areas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from port disruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion from evacuations. Various economic-resilience tactics can potentially reduce the direct and total impacts by 80–85%.

Publication Year 2016
Title Economic impacts of a California tsunami
DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000212
Authors Adam Rose, Ian Sue Wing, Dan Wei, Anne Wein
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Natural Hazards Review
Index ID 70191143
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Western Geographic Science Center