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Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States

March 1, 2022

This report and accompanying datasets from the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force provide 1) sea level rise scenarios to 2150 by decade that include estimates of vertical land motion and 2) a set of extreme water level probabilities for various heights along the U.S. coastline. These data are available at 1-degree grids along the U.S. coastline and downscaled specifically at NOAA tide-gauge locations. Estimates of flood exposure are assessed using contemporary U.S. coastal flood-severity thresholds for current conditions (e.g., sea levels and infrastructure footprint) and for the next 30 years (out to year 2050), assuming no additional risk reduction measures are enacted.

This effort builds upon the 2017 Task Force report (Sweet et al., 2017). In particular, the set of global mean sea level rise scenarios from that report are updated and downscaled with output directly from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6; IPCC, 2021a), through the efforts of the NASA Sea Level Change Team; updates include adjustments to the temporal trajectories and exceedance probabilities of these scenarios based upon end-of-century global temperatures. As with the 2017 report, these global mean sea level rise scenarios are regionalized for the U.S. coastline. In addition, methodology supporting the U.S. Department of Defense Regional Sea Level (DRSL) database (Hall et al., 2016) is adapted for the extreme water level dataset newly developed for this report.

This report will be a key technical input for the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). These data and information are being incorporated into current and planned agency tools and services, such as NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer and Inundation Dashboard, NASA’s Sea Level Change Portal, and others. Although the intent of this report is not to provide authoritative guidance or design specifications for a specific project, it is intended to help inform Federal agencies, state and local governments, and stakeholders in coastal communities about current and future sea level rise to help contextualize its effects for decision-making purposes.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2022
Title Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
DOI
Authors William Sweet, Ben Hamlington, Robert E. Kopp, Christopher Weaver, Patrick L. Barnard, David Bekaert, William Brooks, Michael Craghan, Gregory Dusek, Thomas Frederikse, Gregory Garner, Ayesha S. Genz, John P. Krasting, Eric Larour, Doug Marcy, John J. Marra, Jayantha Obeysekera, Mark Osler, Matthew Pendleton, Daniel Roman, Lauren Schmied, Will Veatch, Kathleen D. White, Casey Zuzak
Publication Type Report
Publication Subtype Other Government Series
Series Title
Series Number
Index ID 70229139
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

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