Postcatastrophe population dynamics and density dependence of an endemic island duck
Laysan ducks (Anas laysanensis) are restricted to approximately 9 km2 in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, USA. To evaluate the importance of density dependence for Laysan ducks, we conducted a Bayesian analysis to estimate the parameters of a Gompertz model and the magnitude of process variation and observation error based on the fluctuations in Laysan duck abundance on Laysan Island from 1994 to 2007. This model described a stationary distribution for the population at carrying capacity that fluctuates around a long-term mean of 456 ducks and is between 316 to 636 ducks 95% of the time. This range of expected variability can be used to identify changes in population size that warn of catastrophic events. Density-dependent population dynamics may explain the recovery of Laysan duck from catastrophic declines and allow managers to identify population monitoring thresholds.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2009 |
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Title | Postcatastrophe population dynamics and density dependence of an endemic island duck |
DOI | 10.2193/2007-420 |
Authors | N.E. Seavy, M.H. Reynolds, W. A. Link, Jeff S. Hatfield |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Journal of Wildlife Management |
Index ID | 5224958 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | Patuxent Wildlife Research Center |