Potential economic consequences along migratory flyways from reductions in breeding habitat of migratory waterbirds

The migration of species, often across continents, makes it difficult to quantify the cumulative effects of local- and regional-scale conservation actions. Further, variation in stakeholder interests, differing jurisdictional governance processes, priorities, and monitoring abilities across the migratory range shapes place-specific differences in management actions. These differences may lead management of migratory species to benefit both species and stakeholders in some places more than others. In the case of North American waterfowl, possible reduction of wetland protection in breeding areas may lead to substantive shifts in benefits among stakeholders across their range by adversely affecting recreational viewing and hunting opportunities for these species. To understand possible consequences of wetland loss in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, the breeding region for 12 focal species of waterfowl, on the recreation economics for these species, we modeled a causal pathway linking wetland loss in the breeding grounds to changes in duck abundance and then assessed the consequences of that change in abundance on recreational hunting and viewing within migratory flyways. Under a scenario where wetland protections cease, we find annual economic activity associated with recreation may decrease as much as \$489 million at the highest levels of predicted wetland loss, the majority of it coming from impacts to viewing behavior in the Mississippi Flyway. The number of hunters may decline by as much as 18,000, leading to \$32 million less in annual economic activity. At highest levels of wetland loss, viewing value is expected to decline by more than one-quarter. Lost economic value associated with reductions in recreation in the Mississippi and Central Flyway states is not likely to be overcome by increases in agricultural economic output in drained wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region. Our analyses indicate local effects of national water policies likely have far-reaching consequences because of the multi-dimensional connections arising from place-specific differences in management action, global and national agricultural economic drivers of crop expansion, and the biotic phenomena of transcontinental avian migration. Reductions in habitat in one location could ramify to economic consequences throughout the continent through connections fostered by migrating waterfowl.