Potential responses of the Lower Missouri River Shovelnose Sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) population to a commercial fishing ban

We developed an age‐structured population matrix model to perform population viability analysis for Lower Missouri River (LMR) shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus). We investigated potential effects of the commercial fishing moratorium put in place to help protect the similar‐appearing pallid sturgeon (S. albus). The model applies different components of total variance in life history parameters at different levels: sampling variance (parameter uncertainty) between model iterations; temporal variance (temporal environmental fluctuations) between time steps within iterations; and individual variance (individual differences) within each time‐step. The model predicted annual rates of population increase of 1.96% under historic fishing and 2.67% with removal of historic fishing. We identified combinations of fishing and harvest size restrictions that would permit a sustainable harvest of shovelnose sturgeon. Overall, the ban on commercial fishing of shovelnose sturgeon in the LMR due to similarity of appearance to pallid sturgeon should help the LMR shovelnose sturgeon population begin to rebound while decreasing any negative effects it may have had on pallid sturgeon populations.