Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America
We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best available science.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2018 |
|---|---|
| Title | Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America |
| DOI | 10.1785/0120170002 |
| Authors | Mark D. Petersen, Stephen Harmsen, Kishor Jaiswal, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Nicolas Luco, Kathleen Haller, Charles Mueller, Allison Shumway |
| Publication Type | Article |
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Series Title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| Index ID | 70197893 |
| Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
| USGS Organization | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
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Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
Allison M Shumway
Research Geophysicist
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Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data include h - Connect
Allison M Shumway
Research GeophysicistEmail