Statistical streamflow comparison of current and historical 30-year periods for selected streams in New Jersey

As the population of New Jersey increases, supplying adequate drinking water to meet demand remains a high priority. To better understand potential streamflow trends over time, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a study comparing low flows at continuous- and partial-record streamgages in New Jersey between a historical period (1950–79) and a current period (1990–2019). Fourteen statistics (one median for each of the twelve monthly minimum 1-day flows, minimum 7-day average streamflow with a 10-year recurrence interval, and median of the daily mean flows for the month of September) were calculated to evaluate how streamflow conditions may differ between the two time periods. Percent change was also calculated to better understand the magnitude of difference between the periods at individual streamgages. A Paired Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test was implemented to test for a change in distribution between the two time periods for each statistic of interest. Results indicated that the median of the minimum 1-day flows for the months of January, February, June, September, and December and the median of the daily mean flows for the month of September had a statistically significant difference in distribution between the time periods for continuous-record streamgages. None of the statistics had a statistically significant difference in distribution for the partial-record streamgages. The largest percent changes between time periods occurred in the northern part of the state, above the Fall Line. Precipitation, land cover, and water use changes were assessed to contribute to the understanding of these differences between time periods. The median of the minimum 1-day flows for the months of January and December generally increased across the state, whereas the median of the minimum 1-day flows for the months of May and September generally decreased throughout the state.