Publications

Bayesian methods have been proposed to estimate optimal escapement goals, using both knowledge about physical determinants of salmon productivity and stock-recruitment data. The Bayesian approach has several advantages over many traditional methods for estimating stock productivity: it allows integration of information from diverse sources and provides a framework for decision

We compare alternative models of sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, productivity (returns per spawner) using more than 30 years of catch and escapement data for Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. The models examined include several alternative forms of models that incorporate climatic influences as well as models not based on climate. For most stocks, a...

During 1994, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, or false alarms at nine volcanic centers-- Mount Sanford, Iliamna, the Katmai group, Kupreanof, Mount Veniaminof, Shishaldin, Makushin, Mount Cleveland and Kanaga (table 1). Of these volcanoes, AVO has a real time, continuously recording seismic network only at Iliamna, which is located in the...

North American populations of most goose species have remained stable or have increased in recent decades (USFWS and Canadian Wildlife Service 1986). Some populations, however, have declined or historically have had small numbers of individuals, and thus are of special concern. Individual populations of geese should be maintained to ensure that they provide aesthetic, recreational, and...

About 250 years ago sea otters (Enhydra lutris) were distributed continuously from central Baja California, north and west along the Pacific Rim to Machatka Peninsula in Russia, and south along the Kuril Island to northern Japan (Kenyon 1969; Fig. 1a). Several hundred thousand sea otters may have occurred in the north Pacific region when commercial hunting began in the 18th century...

The 1991-93 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event first appeared in the northern Gulf of Alaska in autumn 1991 with warm sea-surface temperatures. In winter 1992, there were pulses of increased sea level and anomalous circulation. El Nino conditions persisted at least through summer 1993. The effects of this ENSO event on major groundfish species and Pacific herring in the northern...

Nesting success was studied at Canvasback Lake and Mallard Lake on the Yukon Flats in interior Alaska in 1989–1991. Simple estimates of nesting success were computed using two techniques that assume a constant daily survival rate (DSR). Maximum-likelihood estimates of nesting success for all ducks, assuming constant DSR, ranged among years and sites from near zero to 12%. However, DSRs...

Survival models assume that fates of individuals are independent, yet the robustness of this assumption has been poorly quantified. We examine how empirically derived estimates of the variance of survival rates are affected by dependency in survival probability among individuals. We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate known amounts of dependency among pairs of individuals and...

Most change-in-ratio (CIR) methods for estimating fish and wildlife population sizes have been based only on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary among population subclasses. When information on sampling effort is available, it is also possible to derive CIR estimators based on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time. This paper presents a...

Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change, and of the level of natural variation in these parameters, are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model, based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH), during 1983-89 and 1989-92...

40Ar/39Ar geochronology reveals that turbidite-hosted gold deposits in the southern Alaska accretionary prism are the same age as nearby near-trench plutons. These early Tertiary plutons and gold lodes formed above a slab window during subduction of an oceanic spreading center. Ridge subduction is a previously unrecognized tectonic process for the generation of lode gold.

Stomach contents were collected from sport-caught halibut in Glacier Bay National Park. Stomach samples containing a combination of fish and invertebrate species were observed less frequently than expected. Small, subtidal, noncommercial crab and cod-like fish (Gadidae) appear to be the most important prey items. In thc dict of Pacific halibut. Preliminary findings suggested that dict...