Andrea Llenos

Biography

I am a research geophysicist at the Earthquake Science Center. In my research, I use statistical models and tests to characterize earthquake rate changes in catalogs and the processes that trigger them, both natural (e.g., slow slip or dike intrusions) and manmade (e.g., wastewater fluid injection). I am also interested in the impacts these variations have on short-term earthquake forecasts as well as longer term seismic hazard. Recent study areas include Oklahoma, Arkansas, the central and eastern US, Long Valley Caldera, and the Salton Trough in southern California.

Prior to the USGS, I worked as a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford University, modeling time-dependent dike propagation by jointly inverting seismicity and deformation data.

 

Education

PhD, 2010, Marine Geophysics, MIT/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography

ScB, 2004, Geology-Physics/Mathematics (with honors), Brown University, magna cum laude

ScB, 2004, Engineering (Mechanical), Brown University

 

Professional Experience

Research Geophysicist (term), US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA                                                2015-present

Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA                                            2011-2015

Postdoctoral Scholar, Stanford University, Stanford, CA                                                                    2010-2011

Graduate Research Assistant, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA                    2004-2010

Visiting Researcher, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan                                             2008, 2009

Undergraduate Research Assistant, Dept. of Geo. Sci., Brown University, Providence, RI                   2002-2004

NSF-REU Intern, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK                       2003

Undergraduate Research Assistant, Planetary Geosci., Brown University, Providence, RI                    2001

 

 

Fellowships and Awards

Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Geophysical Research Letters            2016

USGS Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellowship                                                         2011-2013

National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship                        2005-2008

Hollister Fellowship, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution                              2004-2005

Outstanding Student Award (in Mechanical Engineering)                                   2004

Undergraduate Research and Academics Award (in Geological Science)             2004

 

 

Professional Societies, Memberships and Service

USGS Powell Center Working Group on Induced Seismicity (2012-2014)

American Geophysical Union (2004-present)

Seismological Society of America (2007-present)

Sigma Xi (2004-present)

Reviewer for NSF proposals, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Geophysical Journal International, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Seismological Research Letters, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Tectonophysics, Physical Review Leters, Science, Science Advances, Nature Geoscience, Earth Planets Space, Acta geodynamica et geomateria, International Journal of Earth Sciences, Science China Earth Sciences, Geofluids, Advances in Geophysics, Journal of Seismology, AGU Books, GSA Books.

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Publications

Llenos, A. L., and N. J. van der Elst (2019), Improving earthquake forecasts during swarms with a duration model, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., doi: 10.1785/0120180332. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/569753/improving-earthquake-forecasts-during-swarms-with

Hardebeck, J. L., A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, M. T. Page, and N. van der Elst (2018), Updated California aftershock parameters, Seismol. Res. Lett.90, doi: 10.1785/0220180240. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/90/1/262/567500/updated-california-aftershock-parameters

Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, K. S. Rukstales, D. E. McNamara, R. A. Williams, A. M. Shumway, P. M. Powers, P. S. Earle, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, J. H. Norbeck, and E. S. Cochran (2018), 2018 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes, Seismol. Res. Lett.89, 1049-1061, doi: 10.1785/0220180005. http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/3/1049/529918/2018-one-year-seismic-hazard-forecast-for-the

Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael (2017), Forecasting the (Un)productivity of the 2014 M6.0 South Napa aftershock sequence, Seismol. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1785/0220170050. http://srl.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2017/07/14/0220170050

Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, A. M. Shumway, D. E. McNamara, R. A. Williams, A. L. Llenos, W. L. Ellsworth, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, A. F. McGarr, and K. S. Rukstales (2017), 2017 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes, Seismol. Res. Lett., 88, doi: 10.1785/0220170005. http://srl.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2017/02/24/0220170005

Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, A. L. Llenos, W. L. Ellsworth, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, A. F. McGarr, and K. S. Rukstales (2016), Seismic-hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 87, doi: 10.1785/0220160072. http://srl.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2016/08/25/0220160072.abstract

Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael (2016), Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seizmic Zone, southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 106, doi: 10.1785/0120150053. http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2016/08/18/0120150053

Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, A. L. Llenos, W. L. Ellsworth, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, A. F. McGarr, and K. S. Rukstales (2016), 2016 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes, U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016-1035, 52 p. [Link]

Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, J. L. Rubinstein, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, W. L. Ellsworth, A. F. McGarr, A. A. Holland, and J. G. Anderson (2015), Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model - Results of 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies, U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015-1070, 69 p. [Link]

Brocher, T. M., A. S. Baltay, J. L. Hardebeck, F. F. Pollitz, J. R. Murray, A. L. Llenos, D. P. Schwartz, J. L. Blair, D. J. Ponti, J. J. Lienkaemper, V. E. Langenheim, T. E. Dawson, K. W. Hudnut, D. R. Shelley, D. Dreger, J. Boatwright, B. T. Aagaard, D. J. Wald, R. M. Allen, W. D. Barnhart, K. L. Knudsen, B. A. Brooks, K. M. Scharer (2015), The M6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake, Seismol. Res. Lett.86, 309-326, doi: 10.1785/0220150004. [Link]

Ellsworth, W. L., A. L. Llenos, A. F. McGarr, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, C. S. Mueller, M. D. Petersen, and E. Calais (2015), Increasing seismicity in the U. S. Midcontinent: Implications for earthquake hazard, The Leading Edge34, 6(2015), 618-626, doi:10.1190/tle34060618.1. [Link]

Ji, K. H., T. A. Herring, and A. L. Llenos (2013), Near real-time monitoring of volcanic surface deformation at Long Valley Caldera, California, Geophys. Res. Lett.40, 1054-1058, doi: 10.1002/grl.50258.[Link]

Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael (2013), Modeling earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: Possible signatures of induced seismicity, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 2850-2861, doi: 10.1785/0120130017. [Link]

Segall, P., A. L. Llenos, S.-H. Yun, A. M. Bradley, and E. Syracuse (2013), Time-dependent dike propagation from joint inversion of seismicity and deformation data, J. Geophys. Res.118, doi:10.1002/2013JB010251. [Link]

Llenos, A. L., and J. J. McGuire (2011), Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data, J. Geophys. Res.116, B06305, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007537. [Link]

Llenos, A. L., J. J. McGuire, and Y. Ogata (2009), Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.281, 59-69, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.02.011. [Link]

Llenos, A. L., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Influence of fore-arc structure on the extent of great subduction zone earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res.112, B09301, doi:10.1029/2007JB004944. [Link]