Andrea Llenos
Biography
I am a research geophysicist at the Earthquake Science Center. In my research, I use statistical models and tests to characterize earthquake rate changes in catalogs and the processes that trigger them, both natural (e.g., slow slip or dike intrusions) and manmade (e.g., wastewater fluid injection). I am also interested in the impacts these variations have on short-term earthquake forecasts as well as longer term seismic hazard. Recent study areas include Oklahoma, Arkansas, the central and eastern US, Long Valley Caldera, Hawaii, the Bay Area in northern California and the Salton Trough in southern California.
Prior to the USGS, I worked as a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford University, modeling time-dependent dike propagation by jointly inverting seismicity and deformation data.
Education
PhD, 2010, Marine Geophysics, MIT/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography
ScB, 2004, Geology-Physics/Mathematics (with honors), Brown University, magna cum laude
ScB, 2004, Engineering (Mechanical), Brown University
Professional Experience
Research Geophysicist (term), US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 2015-present
Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellow, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 2011-2015
Postdoctoral Scholar, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 2010-2011
Graduate Research Assistant, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 2004-2010
Visiting Researcher, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan 2008, 2009
Undergraduate Research Assistant, Dept. of Geo. Sci., Brown University, Providence, RI 2002-2004
NSF-REU Intern, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK 2003
Undergraduate Research Assistant, Planetary Geosci., Brown University, Providence, RI 2001
Fellowships and Awards
Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Geophysical Research Letters 2016
USGS Mendenhall Postdoctoral Fellowship 2011-2013
National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship 2005-2008
Hollister Fellowship, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 2004-2005
Outstanding Student Award (in Mechanical Engineering) 2004
Undergraduate Research and Academics Award (in Geological Science) 2004
Professional Societies, Memberships and Service
USGS Powell Center Working Group on Induced Seismicity (2012-2014)
American Geophysical Union (2004-present)
Seismological Society of America (2007-present)
Sigma Xi (2004-present)
Reviewer for NSF proposals, Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Geophysical Journal International, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Seismological Research Letters, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Tectonophysics, Physical Review Leters, Science, Science Advances, Nature Geoscience, Earth Planets Space, Acta geodynamica et geomateria, International Journal of Earth Sciences, Science China Earth Sciences, Geofluids, Advances in Geophysics, Journal of Seismology, AGU Books, GSA Books.
Publications
McBride, S. K., A. L. Llenos, M. T. Page, and N. van der Elst (2019), #EarthquakeAdvisory: Exploring discourse between government officials, news media, and social media during the 2016 Bombay Beach swarm, Seismol. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1785/0220190082. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/doi/10.1785/0220190082/574768/EarthquakeAdvisory-Exploring-Discourse-between
Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael (2019), Ensembles of ETAS models provide optimal operational earthquake forecasting during swarms: Insights from the 2015 San Ramon, California swarm, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., doi: 10.1785/0120190020. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/doi/10.1785/0120190020/573839/Ensembles-of-ETAS-Models-Provide-Optimal
Llenos, A. L., and N. J. van der Elst (2019), Improving earthquake forecasts during swarms with a duration model, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 109, 1148-1155, doi: 10.1785/0120180332. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article/569753/improving-earthquake-forecasts-during-swarms-with
Hardebeck, J. L., A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, M. T. Page, and N. van der Elst (2018), Updated California aftershock parameters, Seismol. Res. Lett., 90, doi: 10.1785/0220180240. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/90/1/262/567500/updated-california-aftershock-parameters
Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, K. S. Rukstales, D. E. McNamara, R. A. Williams, A. M. Shumway, P. M. Powers, P. S. Earle, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, J. H. Norbeck, and E. S. Cochran (2018), 2018 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes, Seismol. Res. Lett., 89, 1049-1061, doi: 10.1785/0220180005. http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/3/1049/529918/2018-one-year-seismic-hazard-forecast-for-the
Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael (2017), Forecasting the (Un)productivity of the 2014 M6.0 South Napa aftershock sequence, Seismol. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1785/0220170050. http://srl.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2017/07/14/0220170050
Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, A. M. Shumway, D. E. McNamara, R. A. Williams, A. L. Llenos, W. L. Ellsworth, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, A. F. McGarr, and K. S. Rukstales (2017), 2017 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes, Seismol. Res. Lett., 88, doi: 10.1785/0220170005. http://srl.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2017/02/24/0220170005
Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, A. L. Llenos, W. L. Ellsworth, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, A. F. McGarr, and K. S. Rukstales (2016), Seismic-hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 87, doi: 10.1785/0220160072. http://srl.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2016/08/25/0220160072.abstract
Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael (2016), Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seizmic Zone, southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 106, doi: 10.1785/0120150053. http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2016/08/18/0120150053
Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, A. L. Llenos, W. L. Ellsworth, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, A. F. McGarr, and K. S. Rukstales (2016), 2016 One-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes, U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016-1035, 52 p. [Link]
Petersen, M. D., C. S. Mueller, M. P. Moschetti, S. M. Hoover, J. L. Rubinstein, A. L. Llenos, A. J. Michael, W. L. Ellsworth, A. F. McGarr, A. A. Holland, and J. G. Anderson (2015), Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model - Results of 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies, U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015-1070, 69 p. [Link]
Brocher, T. M., A. S. Baltay, J. L. Hardebeck, F. F. Pollitz, J. R. Murray, A. L. Llenos, D. P. Schwartz, J. L. Blair, D. J. Ponti, J. J. Lienkaemper, V. E. Langenheim, T. E. Dawson, K. W. Hudnut, D. R. Shelley, D. Dreger, J. Boatwright, B. T. Aagaard, D. J. Wald, R. M. Allen, W. D. Barnhart, K. L. Knudsen, B. A. Brooks, K. M. Scharer (2015), The M6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake, Seismol. Res. Lett., 86, 309-326, doi: 10.1785/0220150004. [Link]
Ellsworth, W. L., A. L. Llenos, A. F. McGarr, A. J. Michael, J. L. Rubinstein, C. S. Mueller, M. D. Petersen, and E. Calais (2015), Increasing seismicity in the U. S. Midcontinent: Implications for earthquake hazard, The Leading Edge, 34, 6(2015), 618-626, doi:10.1190/tle34060618.1. [Link]
Ji, K. H., T. A. Herring, and A. L. Llenos (2013), Near real-time monitoring of volcanic surface deformation at Long Valley Caldera, California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1054-1058, doi: 10.1002/grl.50258.[Link]
Llenos, A. L., and A. J. Michael (2013), Modeling earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: Possible signatures of induced seismicity, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 2850-2861, doi: 10.1785/0120130017. [Link]
Segall, P., A. L. Llenos, S.-H. Yun, A. M. Bradley, and E. Syracuse (2013), Time-dependent dike propagation from joint inversion of seismicity and deformation data, J. Geophys. Res., 118, doi:10.1002/2013JB010251. [Link]
Llenos, A. L., and J. J. McGuire (2011), Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data, J. Geophys. Res., 116, B06305, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007537. [Link]
Llenos, A. L., J. J. McGuire, and Y. Ogata (2009), Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 281, 59-69, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.02.011. [Link]
Llenos, A. L., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Influence of fore-arc structure on the extent of great subduction zone earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B09301, doi:10.1029/2007JB004944. [Link]