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Jeffrey Joseph McGuire

Jeff McGuire is a research geophysicist in the Earthquake Hazards Program.

Science and Products

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Chart on fiber optic seismology

Fiber Optic Seismology for Earthquake Hazards Research, Monitoring and Early Warning

A revolution is underway in seismology that transforms fiber-optic cables into arrays of thousands of seismic sensors. Compared to the traditional monitoring networks using inertial seismometers, the fiber-optic approach can increase the spatial data density by orders of magnitude and enable data processing methodologies that require a high-fidelity wavefield. The Working Group aims to...
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
link

Fiber Optic Seismology for Earthquake Hazards Research, Monitoring and Early Warning

A revolution is underway in seismology that transforms fiber-optic cables into arrays of thousands of seismic sensors. Compared to the traditional monitoring networks using inertial seismometers, the fiber-optic approach can increase the spatial data density by orders of magnitude and enable data processing methodologies that require a high-fidelity wavefield. The Working Group aims to advance the
Learn More
link
map of Alaska area with 2020-2021 earthquakes, showing circles for earthquake locations

External Grants - Overview

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides support for research that will assist in achieving the goals of the Earthquake Hazards Program. The goal is to mitigate earthquake losses that can occur in many parts of the nation by providing earth science data and assessments essential for land-use planning, engineering design, and emergency preparedness decisions.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

External Grants - Overview

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides support for research that will assist in achieving the goals of the Earthquake Hazards Program. The goal is to mitigate earthquake losses that can occur in many parts of the nation by providing earth science data and assessments essential for land-use planning, engineering design, and emergency preparedness decisions.
Learn More
link
vertical timeline with text bullets

What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

Release Date: OCTOBER 17, 2019 How will ShakeAlert® likely perform now on a large earthquake impacting a major urban area? How much warning will you get? To answer this, let’s do a thought experiment...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

Release Date: OCTOBER 17, 2019 How will ShakeAlert® likely perform now on a large earthquake impacting a major urban area? How much warning will you get? To answer this, let’s do a thought experiment...
Learn More

2022-2023 Arcata, California, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment: 2022 M6.4 Ferndale Aftershock Sequence

These data are from a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment in Arcata, CA, that was conducted jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey, Cal Poly Humboldt University, and Luna Inc. A Luna QuantX DAS interrogator was installed in the Arcata Police Station and connected to a fiber owned by Vero Communications that runs from Arcata to Eureka (Figure 1). The interrogator was installed on...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Winter 2023 Arcata to Eureka, California, Deployment of Nodal Seismometers

These data are from a 3-month long deployment of nodal seismometers that ran from December 22th, 2022 until March 1st, 2023 as part of a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment above the Gorda plate. The deployment was done in response to the 2022/12/20 M6.4 Ferndale earthquake. The sensors were deployed at 46 locations along Old Arcata Rd between Arcata and Eureka California...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Nodal Seismic Deployment at KCT and Lost Coast Headlands

Between October 12, 2019 and December 13, 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey deployed 30 nodal seismometers in Humboldt county CA for the purpose of recording seismicity in the subducting Gorda plate. 20 instruments were deployed at the McBride ranch, around NCSN station KCT, and 10 were deployed at the Bureau of Land Management's Lost Coast Headlands property. The nodes were replaced in...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Spring 2022 Arcata to Eureka, California, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment: Nodal Seismometer data

These data are from a 3-month long deployment of nodal seismometers that ran from May 18th, 2022 until September 1st, 2022 as part of a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment above the Gorda plate (McGuire, et al., 2022). The sensors were deployed at 44 locations along Old Arcata Rd between Arcata and Eureka California (Figure 1); these locations track the approximate location of...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Spring 2022 Arcata to Eureka California, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment

These data are from a 2-month long Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Experiment in Arcata, CA, that was conducted jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey, Cal Poly Humboldt University, and OptaSense Inc. An OptaSense QuantX DAS interrogator was installed in the Arcata Police Station and connected to a fiber owned by Vero Communications that runs from Arcata to Eureka
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Input for assessing the impact of noisy data on earthquake magnitude estimates derived from peak ground displacement measured with real-time Global Navigation Satellite System data

This data release complements Murray et al. (2023) which presents a framework for incorporating earthquake magnitude estimates based on real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data into the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system for the west coast of the United States. Murray et al. (2023) assess the impact of time-dependent noise in GNSS real-time position estimates on...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Data Release for Latency Testing of Wireless Emergency Alerts intended for the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast of the United States, attempts to provides crucial warnings before strong shaking occurs. However, because the alerts are triggered only when an earthquake is already in progress, and the alert latencies and delivery times are platform dependent, the time between these warnings and the arrival of shaking is variable...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
Filter Total Items: 28

The GorDAS Distributed Acoustic Sensing experiment above the Cascadia locked zone and subducted Gorda Slab

The southernmost portion of the Cascadia Subduction zone in Northern California produces high rates of moderate and large earthquakes owing to subduction of the Gorda slab and deformation associated with the Mendocino Triple Junction. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is rapidly advancing as a method for detecting earthquakes and imaging crustal structure. We have begun a long-term DAS...
Authors
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Andrew Barbour, Connie Stewart, Victor Yartsev, Martin Karrenbach, Mark Hemphill-Haley, R.C. McPherson, Kari Stockdale, Clara Yoon, Theresa Marie Sawi
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

ShakeAlert® version 3: Expected performance in large earthquakes

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival of damaging shaking. EEW is most...
Authors
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Carl W. Ulberg, Angela I. Lux, Maren Bose, J.R. Andrews, Deborah Smith, B. Crowell, Jessica R. Murray, I. Henson, R. Hartog, C. Felizardo, Minh Huynh, M. Aranha, Grace Alexandra Parker, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Mark Hunter Murray, Glenn Biasi, Stephen Guiwits, J.K. Saunders, Andrew D. Good, V. Marcelo Santillan, C.W. Scrivener, Walter M. Szeliga, Timothy I. Melbourne, Victor Kress, Robert M. de Groot, Sara McBride, Douglas D. Given, Richard Allen, Thomas H. Heaton, Allen L. Husker, Valerie I. Thomas, Harold Tobin, Sumant Jha, Julian Bunn
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Evidence for low effective stress within the crust of the subducted Gorda plate from the 2022 December Mw 6.4 Ferndale earthquake sequence

Stress levels on and adjacent to megathrust faults at seismogenic depths remain a key but difficult to constrain parameter for assessing seismic hazard in subduction zones. Although strong ground motions have been observed to be generated from distinct, high-stress regions on the downdip end of the megathrust rupture areas in many great earthquakes, we lack direct constraints on the...
Authors
Hao Guo, James W. Atterholt, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Clifford Thurber
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system (Given et al., 2018). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized in California in October 2019. Over the next few years, public...
Authors
A.I. Lux, Deborah Smith, M. Böse, Jeffrey J. McGuire, J.K. Saunders, Minh Huynh, I. Stubailo, Jennifer R Andrews, G. Lotto, B. Crowell, S. Crane, R.M. Allen, Douglas D. Given, R. Hartog, T. Heaton, A. Husker, J. Marty, Leland O'Driscoll, H. Tobin, Sara K. McBride, D. Toomey
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Elastic stress coupling between supraglacial lakes

Supraglacial lakes have been observed to drain within hours of each other, leading to the hypothesis that stress transmission following one drainage may be sufficient to induce hydro-fracture-driven drainages of other nearby lakes. However, available observations characterizing drainage-induced stress perturbations have been insufficient to evaluate this hypothesis. Here, we use ice...
Authors
L. Stevens, S. Das, M. D. Behn, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Ching-Yao Lai, I. Joughin, S LaRochelle, M. Nettles
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Converted-wave reverse time migration imaging in subduction zone settings

We use a newly developed 2-D elastic reverse time migration (RTM) imaging algorithm based on the Helmholtz decomposition to test approaches for imaging the descending slab in subduction zone regions using local earthquake sources. Our elastic RTM method is designed to reconstruct incident and scattered wavefields at depth, isolate constituent P- and S-wave components via Helmholtz...
Authors
Leah Langer, Frederick Pollitz, Jeffrey J. McGuire
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Incorporation of real-time earthquake magnitudes estimated via peak ground displacement scaling in the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system

The United States earthquake early warning (EEW) system, ShakeAlert®, currently employs two algorithms based on seismic data alone to characterize the earthquake source, reporting the weighted average of their magnitude estimates. Nonsaturating magnitude estimates derived in real time from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data using peak ground displacement (PGD) scaling...
Authors
Jessica R. Murray, Brendan W. Crowell, Mark Hunter Murray, Carl W Ulberg, Jeffrey McGuire, Mario Aranha, Mike Hagerty
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Applications of nonergodic site response models to ShakeAlert case studies in the Los Angeles area

In this study, we explore whether the Parker and Baltay (2022) site response models for the Los Angeles (LA) basin region can improve ground‐motion forecasts in the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system (hereafter ShakeAlert). We implement the peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity site response models of Parker and Baltay (2022) in ShakeAlert via...
Authors
Rongrong Lin, Grace Alexandra Parker, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Waveform signatures of earthquakes located close to the subducted Gorda Plate interface

Complex seismic velocity structure near the earthquake source can affect rupture dynamics and strongly modify the seismic waveforms recorded near the fault. Fault‐zone waves are commonly observed in continental crustal settings but are less clear in subduction zones due to the spatial separation between seismic stations and the plate boundary fault. We observed anomalously long duration...
Authors
Jianhua Gong, Jeffrey McGuire
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Testing the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system using synthesized earthquake sequences

We test the behavior of the United States (US) West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system during temporally close earthquake pairs to understand current performance and limitations. We consider performance metrics based on source parameter and ground‐motion forecast accuracy, as well as on alerting timeliness. We generate ground‐motion times series for synthesized...
Authors
Maren Böse, Jennifer Andrews, Colin T O'Rourke, Deborah L. Kilb, Angela Lux, Julian Bunn, Jeffrey J. McGuire
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Very low frequency earthquakes in between the seismogenic and tremor zones in Cascadia?

Megathrust earthquakes and their associated tsunamis cause some of the worst natural disasters. In addition to earthquakes, a wide range of slip behaviors are present at subduction zones, including slow earthquakes that span multiple orders of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding these events may shed light on the stress or strength conditions of the megathrust fault. Out of all...
Authors
Wenyuan Fan, Andrew Barbour, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Yihe Huang, Guoqing Lin, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Ryo Okuwaki
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Earthquake early warning for estimating floor shaking levels of tall buildings

This article investigates methods to improve earthquake early warning (EEW) predictions of shaking levels for residents of tall buildings. In the current U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert EEW system, regions far from an epicenter will not receive alerts due to low predicted ground‐shaking intensities. However, residents of tall buildings in those areas may still experience significant...
Authors
S. Farid Ghahari, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Mehmet Çelebi, Grace Alexandra Parker, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Ertugrul Taciroglu
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Fiber Optic Seismology Experiment Interactive Map

The USGS Fiber Optic Seismology interactive map provides access to metadata from Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiments.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

How will ShakeAlert® likely perform now on a large earthquake impacting a major urban area? How much warning will you get? To answer this, let’s do a...

Read Article

Science and Products

link
Chart on fiber optic seismology

Fiber Optic Seismology for Earthquake Hazards Research, Monitoring and Early Warning

A revolution is underway in seismology that transforms fiber-optic cables into arrays of thousands of seismic sensors. Compared to the traditional monitoring networks using inertial seismometers, the fiber-optic approach can increase the spatial data density by orders of magnitude and enable data processing methodologies that require a high-fidelity wavefield. The Working Group aims to...
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
link

Fiber Optic Seismology for Earthquake Hazards Research, Monitoring and Early Warning

A revolution is underway in seismology that transforms fiber-optic cables into arrays of thousands of seismic sensors. Compared to the traditional monitoring networks using inertial seismometers, the fiber-optic approach can increase the spatial data density by orders of magnitude and enable data processing methodologies that require a high-fidelity wavefield. The Working Group aims to advance the
Learn More
link
map of Alaska area with 2020-2021 earthquakes, showing circles for earthquake locations

External Grants - Overview

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides support for research that will assist in achieving the goals of the Earthquake Hazards Program. The goal is to mitigate earthquake losses that can occur in many parts of the nation by providing earth science data and assessments essential for land-use planning, engineering design, and emergency preparedness decisions.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program
link

External Grants - Overview

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides support for research that will assist in achieving the goals of the Earthquake Hazards Program. The goal is to mitigate earthquake losses that can occur in many parts of the nation by providing earth science data and assessments essential for land-use planning, engineering design, and emergency preparedness decisions.
Learn More
link
vertical timeline with text bullets

What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

Release Date: OCTOBER 17, 2019 How will ShakeAlert® likely perform now on a large earthquake impacting a major urban area? How much warning will you get? To answer this, let’s do a thought experiment...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center
link

What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

Release Date: OCTOBER 17, 2019 How will ShakeAlert® likely perform now on a large earthquake impacting a major urban area? How much warning will you get? To answer this, let’s do a thought experiment...
Learn More

2022-2023 Arcata, California, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment: 2022 M6.4 Ferndale Aftershock Sequence

These data are from a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment in Arcata, CA, that was conducted jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey, Cal Poly Humboldt University, and Luna Inc. A Luna QuantX DAS interrogator was installed in the Arcata Police Station and connected to a fiber owned by Vero Communications that runs from Arcata to Eureka (Figure 1). The interrogator was installed on...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Winter 2023 Arcata to Eureka, California, Deployment of Nodal Seismometers

These data are from a 3-month long deployment of nodal seismometers that ran from December 22th, 2022 until March 1st, 2023 as part of a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment above the Gorda plate. The deployment was done in response to the 2022/12/20 M6.4 Ferndale earthquake. The sensors were deployed at 46 locations along Old Arcata Rd between Arcata and Eureka California...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Nodal Seismic Deployment at KCT and Lost Coast Headlands

Between October 12, 2019 and December 13, 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey deployed 30 nodal seismometers in Humboldt county CA for the purpose of recording seismicity in the subducting Gorda plate. 20 instruments were deployed at the McBride ranch, around NCSN station KCT, and 10 were deployed at the Bureau of Land Management's Lost Coast Headlands property. The nodes were replaced in...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Spring 2022 Arcata to Eureka, California, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment: Nodal Seismometer data

These data are from a 3-month long deployment of nodal seismometers that ran from May 18th, 2022 until September 1st, 2022 as part of a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment above the Gorda plate (McGuire, et al., 2022). The sensors were deployed at 44 locations along Old Arcata Rd between Arcata and Eureka California (Figure 1); these locations track the approximate location of...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Spring 2022 Arcata to Eureka California, Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiment

These data are from a 2-month long Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Experiment in Arcata, CA, that was conducted jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey, Cal Poly Humboldt University, and OptaSense Inc. An OptaSense QuantX DAS interrogator was installed in the Arcata Police Station and connected to a fiber owned by Vero Communications that runs from Arcata to Eureka
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Input for assessing the impact of noisy data on earthquake magnitude estimates derived from peak ground displacement measured with real-time Global Navigation Satellite System data

This data release complements Murray et al. (2023) which presents a framework for incorporating earthquake magnitude estimates based on real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data into the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system for the west coast of the United States. Murray et al. (2023) assess the impact of time-dependent noise in GNSS real-time position estimates on...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

Data Release for Latency Testing of Wireless Emergency Alerts intended for the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America

ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast of the United States, attempts to provides crucial warnings before strong shaking occurs. However, because the alerts are triggered only when an earthquake is already in progress, and the alert latencies and delivery times are platform dependent, the time between these warnings and the arrival of shaking is variable...
By
Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
Filter Total Items: 28

The GorDAS Distributed Acoustic Sensing experiment above the Cascadia locked zone and subducted Gorda Slab

The southernmost portion of the Cascadia Subduction zone in Northern California produces high rates of moderate and large earthquakes owing to subduction of the Gorda slab and deformation associated with the Mendocino Triple Junction. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is rapidly advancing as a method for detecting earthquakes and imaging crustal structure. We have begun a long-term DAS...
Authors
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Andrew Barbour, Connie Stewart, Victor Yartsev, Martin Karrenbach, Mark Hemphill-Haley, R.C. McPherson, Kari Stockdale, Clara Yoon, Theresa Marie Sawi
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

ShakeAlert® version 3: Expected performance in large earthquakes

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival of damaging shaking. EEW is most...
Authors
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Carl W. Ulberg, Angela I. Lux, Maren Bose, J.R. Andrews, Deborah Smith, B. Crowell, Jessica R. Murray, I. Henson, R. Hartog, C. Felizardo, Minh Huynh, M. Aranha, Grace Alexandra Parker, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Mark Hunter Murray, Glenn Biasi, Stephen Guiwits, J.K. Saunders, Andrew D. Good, V. Marcelo Santillan, C.W. Scrivener, Walter M. Szeliga, Timothy I. Melbourne, Victor Kress, Robert M. de Groot, Sara McBride, Douglas D. Given, Richard Allen, Thomas H. Heaton, Allen L. Husker, Valerie I. Thomas, Harold Tobin, Sumant Jha, Julian Bunn
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Evidence for low effective stress within the crust of the subducted Gorda plate from the 2022 December Mw 6.4 Ferndale earthquake sequence

Stress levels on and adjacent to megathrust faults at seismogenic depths remain a key but difficult to constrain parameter for assessing seismic hazard in subduction zones. Although strong ground motions have been observed to be generated from distinct, high-stress regions on the downdip end of the megathrust rupture areas in many great earthquakes, we lack direct constraints on the...
Authors
Hao Guo, James W. Atterholt, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Clifford Thurber
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system (Given et al., 2018). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized in California in October 2019. Over the next few years, public...
Authors
A.I. Lux, Deborah Smith, M. Böse, Jeffrey J. McGuire, J.K. Saunders, Minh Huynh, I. Stubailo, Jennifer R Andrews, G. Lotto, B. Crowell, S. Crane, R.M. Allen, Douglas D. Given, R. Hartog, T. Heaton, A. Husker, J. Marty, Leland O'Driscoll, H. Tobin, Sara K. McBride, D. Toomey
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Elastic stress coupling between supraglacial lakes

Supraglacial lakes have been observed to drain within hours of each other, leading to the hypothesis that stress transmission following one drainage may be sufficient to induce hydro-fracture-driven drainages of other nearby lakes. However, available observations characterizing drainage-induced stress perturbations have been insufficient to evaluate this hypothesis. Here, we use ice...
Authors
L. Stevens, S. Das, M. D. Behn, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Ching-Yao Lai, I. Joughin, S LaRochelle, M. Nettles
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Converted-wave reverse time migration imaging in subduction zone settings

We use a newly developed 2-D elastic reverse time migration (RTM) imaging algorithm based on the Helmholtz decomposition to test approaches for imaging the descending slab in subduction zone regions using local earthquake sources. Our elastic RTM method is designed to reconstruct incident and scattered wavefields at depth, isolate constituent P- and S-wave components via Helmholtz...
Authors
Leah Langer, Frederick Pollitz, Jeffrey J. McGuire
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Incorporation of real-time earthquake magnitudes estimated via peak ground displacement scaling in the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system

The United States earthquake early warning (EEW) system, ShakeAlert®, currently employs two algorithms based on seismic data alone to characterize the earthquake source, reporting the weighted average of their magnitude estimates. Nonsaturating magnitude estimates derived in real time from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data using peak ground displacement (PGD) scaling...
Authors
Jessica R. Murray, Brendan W. Crowell, Mark Hunter Murray, Carl W Ulberg, Jeffrey McGuire, Mario Aranha, Mike Hagerty
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Applications of nonergodic site response models to ShakeAlert case studies in the Los Angeles area

In this study, we explore whether the Parker and Baltay (2022) site response models for the Los Angeles (LA) basin region can improve ground‐motion forecasts in the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system (hereafter ShakeAlert). We implement the peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity site response models of Parker and Baltay (2022) in ShakeAlert via...
Authors
Rongrong Lin, Grace Alexandra Parker, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Waveform signatures of earthquakes located close to the subducted Gorda Plate interface

Complex seismic velocity structure near the earthquake source can affect rupture dynamics and strongly modify the seismic waveforms recorded near the fault. Fault‐zone waves are commonly observed in continental crustal settings but are less clear in subduction zones due to the spatial separation between seismic stations and the plate boundary fault. We observed anomalously long duration...
Authors
Jianhua Gong, Jeffrey McGuire
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Testing the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system using synthesized earthquake sequences

We test the behavior of the United States (US) West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system during temporally close earthquake pairs to understand current performance and limitations. We consider performance metrics based on source parameter and ground‐motion forecast accuracy, as well as on alerting timeliness. We generate ground‐motion times series for synthesized...
Authors
Maren Böse, Jennifer Andrews, Colin T O'Rourke, Deborah L. Kilb, Angela Lux, Julian Bunn, Jeffrey J. McGuire
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Very low frequency earthquakes in between the seismogenic and tremor zones in Cascadia?

Megathrust earthquakes and their associated tsunamis cause some of the worst natural disasters. In addition to earthquakes, a wide range of slip behaviors are present at subduction zones, including slow earthquakes that span multiple orders of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding these events may shed light on the stress or strength conditions of the megathrust fault. Out of all...
Authors
Wenyuan Fan, Andrew Barbour, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Yihe Huang, Guoqing Lin, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Ryo Okuwaki
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Earthquake early warning for estimating floor shaking levels of tall buildings

This article investigates methods to improve earthquake early warning (EEW) predictions of shaking levels for residents of tall buildings. In the current U.S. Geological Survey ShakeAlert EEW system, regions far from an epicenter will not receive alerts due to low predicted ground‐shaking intensities. However, residents of tall buildings in those areas may still experience significant...
Authors
S. Farid Ghahari, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Mehmet Çelebi, Grace Alexandra Parker, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Ertugrul Taciroglu
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center

Fiber Optic Seismology Experiment Interactive Map

The USGS Fiber Optic Seismology interactive map provides access to metadata from Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) experiments.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

What if the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Had Been Operating During the M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake?

How will ShakeAlert® likely perform now on a large earthquake impacting a major urban area? How much warning will you get? To answer this, let’s do a...

Read Article
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