Jonathan M Friedman, PhD (Former Employee)

Public Summary We worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises. In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions...

Channel migration is the primary mechanism of floodplain turnover in meandering rivers and is essential to the persistence of riparian ecosystems. Channel migration is driven by river flows, but short-term records cannot disentangle the effects of land use, flow diversion, past floods, and climate change. We used three data sets to quantify nearly two centuries of channel migration on...

Establishment of cottonwood trees is driven by flood-induced channel migration, which provides the new surfaces necessary for successful germination and survival. Along the Little Missouri River the largest floods typically result from snowmelt in March or April. Seed release occurs in early summer, and seedlings usually germinate in moist, open locations on point bars at relatively low...

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in...

River flow reconstructions are typically developed using tree rings from montane conifers that cannot reflect flow regulation or hydrologic inputs from the lower portions of a watershed. Incorporating lowland riparian trees may improve the accuracy of flow reconstructions when these trees are physically linked to the alluvial water table. We used riparian plains cottonwoods (Populus...

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local...