Peter M Powers, PhD
I am a research and development geophysicist specializing in probabilisitic seismic hazard analysis.
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to...
Filter Total Items: 13
Data Release for the The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model Data Release for the The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model
The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the state of Alaska was updated in 2023 as part of the 50-state NSHM update. The new model incorporates more than 15 years of additional science since the release of the previous model in 2007 and has been reviewed by a six-member review panel and a supplementary eight-member team of ground motion model developers. This time-independent
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as...
Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023 (western U.S.) (ver. 3.0, December 2023) Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023 (western U.S.) (ver. 3.0, December 2023)
This Data Release contains version 3.0 of two related earthquake geology databases for use in the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model. The databases are: 1) A fault sections database (“NSHM23_FSD_v3”), which depicts the geometry of faults capable of hosting independent earthquakes, and 2) an earthquake geology site information database (“NSHM23_EQGeoDB_v3”), which contains fault slip...
nshmp-haz-v2 nshmp-haz-v2
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) codes for performing probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. These codes are intended for use with seismic hazard models developed by the NSHMP for the U.S. and its territories. This project includes a variety of command line applications and web service classes and relies on the nshmp-lib...
nshm-hawaii-v2 nshm-hawaii-v2
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz.
nshm-conus-v5 nshm-conus-v5
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz. This model was last updated in 2018.
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014 Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014
The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities...
Filter Total Items: 38
Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically releases updates to National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the United States and its territories leveraging current scientific knowledge and methodologies to guide public policy, building codes, and risk assessments regarding potential ground shaking due to earthquakes that may result in infrastructure damage. In subduction zones, there is...
Authors
Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Eric M. Thompson, Mike Hearne, Gavin P. Hayes, David R. Shelly, Allison Shumway, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Peter M. Powers
A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, Jason M. Altekruse
The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model
US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast...
Authors
Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Peter J. Haeussler, Adrian Bender, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, James Andrew Smith, Richard W. Briggs, Robert Witter, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Demi Leafar Girot, Julie A. Herrick, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen
Framework for implementing damping scaling factors in U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models Framework for implementing damping scaling factors in U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models
Traditionally, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has focused on calculating ground motion hazard curves for elastic, 5%-damped pseudo spectral accelerations, Sa(T,5%), which are used as the basis for engineering design parameters and targets for ground motion selection and modification. However, structures and geotechnical systems can exhibit a wide range of damping ratios...
Authors
Andrew James Makdisi, Dallin Smith, Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Kyle Withers
The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models
The US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used to calculate earthquake ground-shaking intensities for design and rehabilitation of structures in the United States. The most recent 2014 and 2018 versions of the NSHM for the conterminous United States included major updates to ground-motion models (GMMs) for active and stable crustal tectonic settings; however...
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Arthur D. Frankel, Erin A. Wirth, James Andrew Smith, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kyle Withers, Julie A. Herrick
Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model
Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential...
Authors
Kyle Withers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Nico Luco, Erin A. Wirth, Sanaz Rezaeian, Eric M. Thompson
Unified Hazard Tool Unified Hazard Tool
Use this web application to obtain earthquake hazards data from the U.S. Hazard Model.
nshm-alaska-v2 nshm-alaska-v2
Software release of 2023 Alaska NSHM input files for use with nshmp-haz.
nshm-hawaii-v2 nshm-hawaii-v2
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz.
nshm-conus-v5 nshm-conus-v5
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz. This model was last updated in 2018.
nshmp-haz-v2 nshmp-haz-v2
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) codes for performing probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. These codes are intended for use with seismic hazard models developed by the NSHMP for the U.S. and its territories. This project includes a variety of command line applications and web service classes and relies on the nshmp-lib...
nshmp-lib nshmp-lib
nshmp-lib is a USGS developed Java library that supports probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. This project includes all the code required to load, process and query USGS National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs). nshmp-lib is used by command line applications and web services found in the nshmp-haz project. See that project for running PSHA calculations.
nshm-fault-sections nshm-fault-sections
A repository of all geologic fault section data included in USGS National Seismic Hazard Models
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to...
Filter Total Items: 13
Data Release for the The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model Data Release for the The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model
The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the state of Alaska was updated in 2023 as part of the 50-state NSHM update. The new model incorporates more than 15 years of additional science since the release of the previous model in 2007 and has been reviewed by a six-member review panel and a supplementary eight-member team of ground motion model developers. This time-independent
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as...
Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023 (western U.S.) (ver. 3.0, December 2023) Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023 (western U.S.) (ver. 3.0, December 2023)
This Data Release contains version 3.0 of two related earthquake geology databases for use in the 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model. The databases are: 1) A fault sections database (“NSHM23_FSD_v3”), which depicts the geometry of faults capable of hosting independent earthquakes, and 2) an earthquake geology site information database (“NSHM23_EQGeoDB_v3”), which contains fault slip...
nshmp-haz-v2 nshmp-haz-v2
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) codes for performing probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. These codes are intended for use with seismic hazard models developed by the NSHMP for the U.S. and its territories. This project includes a variety of command line applications and web service classes and relies on the nshmp-lib...
nshm-hawaii-v2 nshm-hawaii-v2
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz.
nshm-conus-v5 nshm-conus-v5
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz. This model was last updated in 2018.
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014 Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014
The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities...
Filter Total Items: 38
Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically releases updates to National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the United States and its territories leveraging current scientific knowledge and methodologies to guide public policy, building codes, and risk assessments regarding potential ground shaking due to earthquakes that may result in infrastructure damage. In subduction zones, there is...
Authors
Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Eric M. Thompson, Mike Hearne, Gavin P. Hayes, David R. Shelly, Allison Shumway, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Peter M. Powers
A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, Jason M. Altekruse
The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model
US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast...
Authors
Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Peter J. Haeussler, Adrian Bender, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, James Andrew Smith, Richard W. Briggs, Robert Witter, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Demi Leafar Girot, Julie A. Herrick, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen
Framework for implementing damping scaling factors in U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models Framework for implementing damping scaling factors in U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models
Traditionally, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has focused on calculating ground motion hazard curves for elastic, 5%-damped pseudo spectral accelerations, Sa(T,5%), which are used as the basis for engineering design parameters and targets for ground motion selection and modification. However, structures and geotechnical systems can exhibit a wide range of damping ratios...
Authors
Andrew James Makdisi, Dallin Smith, Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Kyle Withers
The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models
The US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used to calculate earthquake ground-shaking intensities for design and rehabilitation of structures in the United States. The most recent 2014 and 2018 versions of the NSHM for the conterminous United States included major updates to ground-motion models (GMMs) for active and stable crustal tectonic settings; however...
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Arthur D. Frankel, Erin A. Wirth, James Andrew Smith, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kyle Withers, Julie A. Herrick
Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model
Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential...
Authors
Kyle Withers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Nico Luco, Erin A. Wirth, Sanaz Rezaeian, Eric M. Thompson
Unified Hazard Tool Unified Hazard Tool
Use this web application to obtain earthquake hazards data from the U.S. Hazard Model.
nshm-alaska-v2 nshm-alaska-v2
Software release of 2023 Alaska NSHM input files for use with nshmp-haz.
nshm-hawaii-v2 nshm-hawaii-v2
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz.
nshm-conus-v5 nshm-conus-v5
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. This model is intended for use with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard software nshmp-haz. This model was last updated in 2018.
nshmp-haz-v2 nshmp-haz-v2
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) codes for performing probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. These codes are intended for use with seismic hazard models developed by the NSHMP for the U.S. and its territories. This project includes a variety of command line applications and web service classes and relies on the nshmp-lib...
nshmp-lib nshmp-lib
nshmp-lib is a USGS developed Java library that supports probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. This project includes all the code required to load, process and query USGS National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs). nshmp-lib is used by command line applications and web services found in the nshmp-haz project. See that project for running PSHA calculations.
nshm-fault-sections nshm-fault-sections
A repository of all geologic fault section data included in USGS National Seismic Hazard Models
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.