Timothy O Hodson, Ph.D.

In machine learning or scientific computing, model performance is measured with an objective function. But why choose one objective over another? According to the information-theoretic paradigm, the “best” objective function is whichever minimizes information loss. To evaluate different objectives, transform them into likelihoods. The ratios of these likelihoods represent how strongly we should pr

Streamflow is one of the most important variables in hydrology, but it is difficult to measure continuously. As a result, nearly all streamflow time series are estimated from rating curves that define a mathematical relationship between streamflow and some easy-to-measure proxy like water surface elevation (stage). Despite the existence of automated methods, most rating curves are still fit manual

Nitrate-nitrogen and total phosphorus loads from the major rivers draining Illinois were updated through the 2021 water year (Figure 3.1). Beginning with the 2023 biennial update to the Illinois NLRS, nutrient loads were estimated using data from the U.S. Geological Survey continuous monitoring stations rather than the original Illinois EPA monitoring stations. To maintain consistency with previou

Much of modern science takes place in a computational environment, and, increasingly, that environment is programmed using R, Python, or Julia. Furthermore, most scientific data now live on the cloud, so the first step in many workflows is to query a cloud database and load the response into a computational environment for further analysis. Thus, tools that facilitate programmatic data retrieval r

Total phosphorus (TP) loads in many rivers in the north-central United States have increased, including the Illinois River at Valley City, Illinois, USA, which increased 39% from the periods 1989–1996 to 2015–2019 despite efforts to reduce loads from point and nonpoint sources. Here, we quantify long-term variations in phosphorus (P) loads in the Illinois River and its tributaries and identify fac

The root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are widely used metrics for evaluating models. Yet, there remains enduring confusion over their use, such that a standard practice is to present both, leaving it to the reader to decide which is more relevant. In a recent reprise to the 200-year debate over their use, Willmott and Matsuura (2005) and Chai and Draxler (2014) give argu

The Des Plaines River in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois is the principal conduit for the discharge of wastewater effluent and stormwater runoff from the greater Chicago metropolitan area. In November 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago, installed a continuous monitoring station to measure water quality and s

As science becomes increasingly cross-disciplinary and scientific models become increasingly cross-coupled, standardized practices of model evaluation are more important than ever. For normally distributed data, mean squared error (MSE) is ideal as an objective measure of model performance, but it gives little insight into what aspects of model performance are “good” or “bad.” This apparent weakne

The State of Illinois is one of the leading contributors of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment to the Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico. During water years 2016–20, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, operated continuous monitoring stations on eight major rivers in Illinois to better quantify nutrient and sediment loadings

Nutrient and soil loss, defined herein as the loss of nutrients or soil to streams and other downstream receiving waters, affect watersheds around the globe. Although governments make large investments mitigating nutrient and soil loss through watershed management efforts, the efficacy of these efforts is often difficult to assess, in part because streamflow variability obscures the effects.This s

In 2010 the Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, designed to support research in support of implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created in response to Puget Sound having been designated as one of 28 estuaries of national significance under section 320 of the U.S. Clean