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Nowcast Beach Status

September 1, 2017
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Great Lakes NowCast Status

NowCast – A daily nowcast of recreational water quality conditions

Nowcast predicts water quality conditions at select beach swimming areas in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Predictions are only posted during the beach swimming season in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. 

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Presque Isle beach

Predictive Modeling of Bacteria Concentrations at Presque Isle State Park, Erie, Pennsylvania

Approximately 7 miles of Lake Erie shoreline lies within Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa. Monitored public bathing beaches at Presque Isle make up less than 1 mile. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at monitored beaches in Presque Isle State Park occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters resulting in potentially unsafe swimming...
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Pennsylvania Water Science Center
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Predictive Modeling of Bacteria Concentrations at Presque Isle State Park, Erie, Pennsylvania

Approximately 7 miles of Lake Erie shoreline lies within Presque Isle State Park in Erie, Pa. Monitored public bathing beaches at Presque Isle make up less than 1 mile. Concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) at monitored beaches in Presque Isle State Park occasionally exceed the single-sample bathing-water standard of 235 colonies per 100 milliliters resulting in potentially unsafe swimming...
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map of western New York with triangle where 11 recreational beaches used by Nowcast are located

New York Nowcast, Recreational Beaches of New York

Problem – Currently, swim advisories or closings are issued by beach managers based on standards for concentrations of bacterial indicators such as Escherichia coli (E. coli). Standard culture methods for these bacteria take at least 18-24 hours before results are available. At most Great Lakes beaches, the beach is posted with an advisory or closing or is determined to be acceptable for swimm
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New York Water Science Center
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New York Nowcast, Recreational Beaches of New York

Problem – Currently, swim advisories or closings are issued by beach managers based on standards for concentrations of bacterial indicators such as Escherichia coli (E. coli). Standard culture methods for these bacteria take at least 18-24 hours before results are available. At most Great Lakes beaches, the beach is posted with an advisory or closing or is determined to be acceptable for swimm
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Nowcasting methods for determining microbiological water quality at recreational beaches and drinking-water source waters

Nowcasts are tools used to provide timely and accurate water-quality assessments of threats to drinking-water and recreational resources from fecal contamination or cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms. They use mathematical models and techniques to provide near-real-time estimates of fecal-indicator bacteria (FIB) and cyanotoxin concentrations. Techniques include logic-based thresholds, decision t
Authors
Donna S. Francy, Amie M.G. Brady, Jessica Cicale, Harrison D Dalby, Erin Stelzer
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Water Resources Mission Area, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Water Science Center, Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory

Real-time assessments of water quality—A nowcast for Escherichia coli and cyanobacterial toxins

Threats to our recreational and drinking waters include disease-causing (pathogenic) organisms from fecal contamination and toxins produced by some species of cyanobacteria (cyanotoxins) that can cause acute and (or) chronic illnesses. Because traditional laboratory methods for detecting these threats take too long for prompt public health protection, tools for real-time assessments are needed to
Authors
Donna S. Francy, Amie M.G. Brady, Tammy M. Zimmerman
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Water Resources Mission Area, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Water Science Center, Pennsylvania Water Science Center, Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as s

Authors
Donna S. Francy, Amie M. G. Brady, Rebecca B. Carvin, Steven R. Corsi, Lori M. Fuller, John H. Harrison, Brett A. Hayhurst, Jeremiah Lant, Meredith B. Nevers, Paul J. Terrio, Tammy M. Zimmerman
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Water Resources Mission Area, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Water Science Center, Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory

Testing and refining the Ohio Nowcast at two Lake Erie beaches— 2008

The Ohio Nowcast has been providing real-time beach advisories to the public on the basis of predictive models since 2006. In support of the nowcast, data were collected during the recreational season of 2008 to validate and refine predictive models at two Lake Erie beaches. Predictive models yield data on the probability that the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli will be exceeded.
Authors
Donna S. Francy, Erin E. Bertke, Robert A. Darner
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Water Resources Mission Area, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Water Science Center

Nowcasting Beach Advisories at Ohio Lake Erie Beaches

Data were collected during the recreational season of 2007 to test and refine predictive models at three Lake Erie beaches. In addition to E. coli concentrations, field personnel collected or compiled data for environmental and water-quality variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations including turbidity, wave height, water temperature, lake level, rainfall, and antecedent dry days and wet
Authors
Donna S. Francy, Robert A. Darner

Section 5. Procedures for Developing Models To Predict Exceedances of Recreational Water-Quality Standards at Coastal Beaches

Authors
Donna S. Francy, Robert A. Darner
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Water Resources Mission Area, Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Water Science Center

Escherichia coli at Ohio Bathing Beaches—Distribution, Sources, Wastewater Indicators, and Predictive Modeling

Results of studies during the recreational seasons of 2000 and 2001 strengthen the science that supports monitoring of our Nation's beaches. Water and sediment samples were collected and analyzed for concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli).  Ancillary water-quality and environmental data were collected or compiled to determine their relation to E. coli concentrations. Data were collected at t
Authors
Donna S. Francy, Amie M. Gifford, Robert A. Darner

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