Climate and Aquatic Ecosystems
Effects of changing climate on aquatic ecosystems requires understanding a complex series of interactions between terrestrial climates, their corresponding impacts on hydrological processes, and ultimately a suite of biological responses. These uncertainties stand in contrast to the urgent need for reliable information to be used in developing long-term strategies for climate adaptation to effectively manage threatened and endangered species and ecosystem services. We have approached the question of climate impacts in three ways: 1) by evaluating ecosystem responses to historical climatic variability, 2) contrasting climate versus other threats to aquatic species on contemporary time frames, and 3) developing approaches to projecting future conditions and guidelines for application.
Our work has often focused on understanding changes in stream flows and water temperatures, as these two factors are expected to be most responsive to climate and have impacts on a broad range of species. We have employed analyses of historical time series of water temperatures and long-term records of population abundance, as well as growth histories of long-lived individuals (e.g., freshwater mussels), to better understand both physical and biotic responses to observed climate variability. Our efforts to evaluate climate impacts across the range of broadly distributed and climatically sensitive species (e.g., threatened bull trout and inland cutthroat trout subspecies) are identifying threats from climate, as well as contemporary human-related influences. We are also studying how species respond to temporally and spatially variable climate-related conditions (e.g., behavioral thermoregulation, species phenologies, spatial landscape processes), which will provide key insights into their resilience as future changes are manifested. Studies about species responses to climate are evaluating sources and propagation of uncertainty so that key information gaps can be identified and addressed.
We are in the first decades of many to come that will be centered on understanding climate change. Our goal is to produce a durable foundation of scientific information that will be useful for years to come.
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user-community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams
Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change
Spatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout
Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems
A simple prioritization tool to diagnose impairment of stream temperature for coldwater fishes in the Great Basin
Impacts of climatic variation on trout: A global synthesis and path forward
Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change
Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.
Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest
Bull trout in the Boundary System: managing connectivity and the feasibility of a reintroduction in the lower Pend Oreille River, northeastern Washington
Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?
Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Effects of changing climate on aquatic ecosystems requires understanding a complex series of interactions between terrestrial climates, their corresponding impacts on hydrological processes, and ultimately a suite of biological responses. These uncertainties stand in contrast to the urgent need for reliable information to be used in developing long-term strategies for climate adaptation to effectively manage threatened and endangered species and ecosystem services. We have approached the question of climate impacts in three ways: 1) by evaluating ecosystem responses to historical climatic variability, 2) contrasting climate versus other threats to aquatic species on contemporary time frames, and 3) developing approaches to projecting future conditions and guidelines for application.
Our work has often focused on understanding changes in stream flows and water temperatures, as these two factors are expected to be most responsive to climate and have impacts on a broad range of species. We have employed analyses of historical time series of water temperatures and long-term records of population abundance, as well as growth histories of long-lived individuals (e.g., freshwater mussels), to better understand both physical and biotic responses to observed climate variability. Our efforts to evaluate climate impacts across the range of broadly distributed and climatically sensitive species (e.g., threatened bull trout and inland cutthroat trout subspecies) are identifying threats from climate, as well as contemporary human-related influences. We are also studying how species respond to temporally and spatially variable climate-related conditions (e.g., behavioral thermoregulation, species phenologies, spatial landscape processes), which will provide key insights into their resilience as future changes are manifested. Studies about species responses to climate are evaluating sources and propagation of uncertainty so that key information gaps can be identified and addressed.
We are in the first decades of many to come that will be centered on understanding climate change. Our goal is to produce a durable foundation of scientific information that will be useful for years to come.
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user-community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams
Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change
Spatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout
Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems
A simple prioritization tool to diagnose impairment of stream temperature for coldwater fishes in the Great Basin
Impacts of climatic variation on trout: A global synthesis and path forward
Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change
Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.
Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest
Bull trout in the Boundary System: managing connectivity and the feasibility of a reintroduction in the lower Pend Oreille River, northeastern Washington
Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?
Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change
Below are news stories associated with this project.