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Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF2) is a fully time‐dependent earthquake rupture forecast developed with sponsorship of the California Earthquake Authority (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [WGCEP], 2007; Field et al., 2009). UCERF2 contains 480 logic‐tree branches reflecting choices among nine modeling uncertainties in the earthquake rate...
Authors
Keith A. Porter, Edward H. Field, Kevin Milner

Problem of the Love‐Gannon relation between the asymmetric disturbance field and Dst Problem of the Love‐Gannon relation between the asymmetric disturbance field and Dst

Love and Gannon (2009) discovered that statistically, over a fifty year period the difference in the dawn and dusk disturbance‐field H component at low latitudes (hourly averaged) is linearly proportional to Dst. If the difference is designated by δDD in units of nT/RE, then the Love‐Gannon (L‐G) relation is δDD = −0.2 Dst. At any time departures from the relation can be large...
Authors
G. L. Siscoe, Jeffrey J. Love, J.L. Gannon

Large-area landslide detection and monitoring with ALOS/PALSAR imagery data over Northern California and Southern Oregon, USA Large-area landslide detection and monitoring with ALOS/PALSAR imagery data over Northern California and Southern Oregon, USA

Multi-temporal ALOS/PALSAR images are used to automatically investigate landslide activity over an area of ~ 200 km by ~ 350 km in northern California and southern Oregon. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) deformation images, InSAR coherence maps, SAR backscattering intensity images, and a DEM gradient map are combined to detect active landslides by setting individual...
Authors
Chaoying Zhao, Zhong Lu, Qin Zhang, Juan de la Fuente

Superposed epoch analysis and storm statistics from 25 years of the global geomagnetic disturbance index, USGS-Dst Superposed epoch analysis and storm statistics from 25 years of the global geomagnetic disturbance index, USGS-Dst

Statistics on geomagnetic storms with minima below -50 nanoTesla are compiled using a 25-year span of the 1-minute resolution disturbance index, U.S. Geological Survey Dst. A sudden commencement, main phase minimum, and time between the two has a magnitude of 35 nanoTesla, -100 nanoTesla, and 12 hours, respectively, at the 50th percentile level. The cumulative distribution functions for...
Authors
J.L. Gannon

Seismic hazard of American Samoa and neighboring South Pacific Islands--methods, data, parameters, and results Seismic hazard of American Samoa and neighboring South Pacific Islands--methods, data, parameters, and results

American Samoa and the neighboring islands of the South Pacific lie near active tectonic-plate boundaries that host many large earthquakes which can result in strong earthquake shaking and tsunamis. To mitigate earthquake risks from future ground shaking, the Federal Emergency Management Agency requested that the U.S. Geological Survey prepare seismic hazard maps that can be applied in...
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Stephen C. Harmsen, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Charles S. Mueller, Daniel E. McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Melanie Walling

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno...
Authors
Rex L. Baum, Jonathan W. Godt, P. De Vita, E. Napolitano

Effects of soil-engineering properties on the failure mode of shallow landslides Effects of soil-engineering properties on the failure mode of shallow landslides

Some landslides mobilize into flows, while others slide and deposit material immediately down slope. An index based on initial dry density and fine-grained content of soil predicted failure mode of 96 landslide initiation sites in Oregon and Colorado with 79% accuracy. These material properties can be used to identify potential sources for debris flows and for slides. Field data suggest...
Authors
Jonathan Peter McKenna, Paul Michael Santi, Xavier Amblard, Jacquelyn Negri

Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements from the headwaters of a steep catchment Sediment entrainment by debris flows: In situ measurements from the headwaters of a steep catchment

Debris flows can dramatically increase their volume, and hence their destructive potential, by entraining sediment. Yet quantitative constraints on rates and mechanics of sediment entrainment by debris flows are limited. Using an in situ sensor network in the headwaters of a natural catchment we measured flow and bed properties during six erosive debris-flow events. Despite similar flow...
Authors
S.W. McCoy, Jason W. Kean, Jeffrey A. Coe, G.E. Tucker, Dennis M. Staley, T.A. Wasklewicz
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