Publications

We present an objectively defined rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) threshold for the initiation of flash floods and debris flows for basins recently burned in the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA. Our results are based on 453 rainfall records which include 8 instances of hazardous flooding and debris flow from 10 July 2012 to 14 August 2013. We objectively...

Individual great earthquakes are posited to release the elastic strain energy that has accumulated over centuries by the gradual movement of tectonic plates1, 2. However, knowledge of plate deformation during a complete seismic cycle—two successive great earthquakes and the intervening interseismic period—remains incomplete3. A complete seismic cycle began in south-central Chile in 1835...

Overland flow detectors (OFDs) were deployed in 2012 on a hillslope burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon fire near Boulder, Colorado, USA. These detectors were simple, electrical resistor-type instruments that output a voltage (0–2·5 V) and were designed to measure and record the time of runoff initiation, a signal proportional to water depth, and the runoff hydrograph during natural...

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise...

The sharp increase in seismicity over a broad region of central Oklahoma has raised concerns regarding the source of the activity and its potential hazard to local communities and energy-industry infrastructure. Efforts to monitor and characterize the earthquake sequences in central Oklahoma are reviewed. Since early 2010, numerous organizations have deployed temporary portable seismic...

Hydrologic processes during extreme rainfall events are poorly characterized because of the rarity of measurements. Improved understanding of hydrologic controls on natural hazards is needed because of the potential for substantial risk during extreme precipitation events. We present field measurements of the degree of soil saturation and estimates of available soil-water storage during...

Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite photograph (a digital image) showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern...

During the late morning of March 22, 2014, a devastating landslide occurred near the town of Oso, Washington. The landslide with an estimated volume of 10.9 million cubic yards (8.3 x 106 m3) of both intact glacially deposited and previously disturbed landslide sediments, reached speeds averaging 40 miles per hour (64 kilometers per hour) and crossed the entire 2/3-mile (~1100 m) width...

Strong‐motion accelerometers provide onscale seismic recordings during moderate‐to‐large ground motions (e.g., up to tens of m/s2 peak). Such instruments have played a fundamental role in improving our understanding of earthquake source physics (Bocketal., 2011), earthquake engineering (Youdet al., 2004), and regional seismology (Zollo et al., 2010). Although strong‐motion accelerometers...

We studied 18 sampling stations along a transect to investigate the similarity between live (rose Bengal stained) foraminiferal populations and dead assemblages, their small-scale spatial variations and the distribution of infaunal foraminifera in a salt marsh (Toms Creek marsh) at the upper end of the South Slough arm of the Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, USA. We aimed to test to what extent

This work applies 64,765 simulated seismic ground motions to four models each of 6- or 20-story, steel special moment-resisting frame buildings. We consider two vector intensity measures and categorize the building response as “collapsed,” “unrepairable,” or “repairable.” We then propose regression models to predict the building responses from the intensity measures. The best models for...

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of...