PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) Strategy, Communications and Synthesis for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5)

Science Center Objects

USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project global data sets of Pliocene conditions, which form the most comprehensive global reconstruction for any warm period prior to the recent past, are used to drive numerical climate model simulations designed to explore the impact of climate forcings and feedbacks during the Pliocene. The Pliocene world provides an unequal...

USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project global data sets of Pliocene conditions, which form the most comprehensive global reconstruction for any warm period prior to the recent past, are used to drive numerical climate model simulations designed to explore the impact of climate forcings and feedbacks during the Pliocene. The Pliocene world provides an unequaled paleo-­‐laboratory to test the sensitivity of the physical models that estimate the impacts of future warming and challenges our understanding of the sensitivity of key components of the climate system and how they are simulated (e.g., polar vs. tropical sensitivity, the role of ocean circulation in a warming climate, the hydrological impact of altered storm tracks, the regional climate impacts of modified atmospheric and oceanic energy transport systems). A number of leading international climate modeling groups are using these USGS data exclusively to run comparative experiments as part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) with the aim of including these results in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Several modeling groups have completed or are in the process of completing PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2, and a series of workshops is needed to 1) present and discuss the modeling groups’ initial results, 2) discuss the challenge of data-­‐model comparison, 3) identify the model scenarios and data-­‐model output that require analysis and documentation, and 4) synthesize results for inclusion in IPCC AR5.

 

Principal Investigator(s):

Harry J Dowsett (Earth Surface Processes Science Center)

Marci M Robinson (Earth Surface Processes Science Center)

Mark Chandler (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

Participant(s):

B. L. Otto-Bliesner (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

Alan M. Haywood (University of Leeds)

Dan Lunt (University of Bristol)

Nan Rosenbloom (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

Kevin M Foley (Eastern Geology and Paleoclimate Science Center)



Publications:

Chandler, M. A., Sohl, L. E., Jonas, J. A., Dowsett, H. J., and Kelley, M. (2013). Simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using two versions of the NASA/GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model. Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 517-531. doi: 10.5194/gmd-6-517-2013



Dolan, A. M., Haywood, A. M., and Dowsett, H. J. (2012). Climate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth. Eos, 93(2), 18. doi: 10.1029/2012EO020002



Dowsett, H.J., Foley, K.M, Stoll, D.K., Chandler, M.A., Sohl, L.E., Bentsen, M., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Bragg, F.J., Chan, W.-L., Contoux, C., Dolan, A.M., Haywood, A.M., Jonas, J.A., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D.J., Nisancioglu, K.H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Ramstein, G., Riesselman, C.R., Robinson, M.M., Rosenbloom, N.A., Salzmann, U., Stepanek, C., Strother, S.L., Ueda, H., Yan, Q., and Zhang, Z. (2013). Sea surface temperature of the mid-Piacenzian ocean: A data-model comparison. Scientific Reports, 3. doi: 10.1038/srep02013.



Dowsett, H.J., Robinson, M.M., Haywood, A.M., Hill, D.J., Dolan, A.M., Stoll, D.K., Chan, W.L., Abe-Ouchi, A., Chandler, M.A., Rosenbloom, N.A., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Bragg, F.J., Lunt, D.J., Foley, K.M., Riesselman, C.R. (2012). Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models. Nature Climate Change, 2, 365-371. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1455



Dowsett, H., Robinson, M., Stoll, D., Foley, K., Riesselman, C., Johnson, A., and Williams, M., (2013). The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) Reconstruction: Time for a Paradigm Shift. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, A. 49p. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0524



Haywood, A.M., Hill, D.J., Dolan, A., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Bragg, F., Chan, W.L., Chandler, M., Contoux, C., Dowsett, H.J., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D., Abe-Ouchi, A., Pickering, S., Ramstein, G., Rosenbloom, N., Salzmann, U., Sohl, L., Stepanek, C., Ueda, H., Yan, Q., and Zhang, Z. (2013). Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Clim. Past, 9(1), 191-209. doi: 10.5194/cp-9-191-2013



Salzmann, U., Dolan , A., Haywood, A.M., Chan, W.L., Voss, J., Hill, D.J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Bragg, F., Chandler, M., Contoux, C., Dowsett, H.J., Jost, A., Kamae, Y., Lohmann, G., Lunt, D., Pickering, S., Pound, M., Ramstein, G., Rosenbloom, N., Sohl, L., Stepanek, C., Ueda, H., and Zhang, Z. (2013) Challenges in quantifying Pliocene terrestrial warming revealed by data-model discord. Nature Climate Change, 3(11), 969-974. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2008