Tropical Storm Colin - Forecast of Coastal Change

Science Center Objects

Forecast of coastal change for Tropical Storm Colin.

Probabilities of coastal erosion - Tropical Storm Colin

Screen shot of the Coastal Change Hazards Portal showing potential coastal change impacts during a direct landfall of Tropical Storm Colin based on NHC Advisory 4, 0500 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2016. (Public domain.)

Tropical Storm Colin formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 5, 2016, and made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida on June 7. Storm surge reached 0.5 m (1.5 ft) to 1 m (3 ft) above predicted tides. Offshore wave heights of approximately 3 m (10 ft) increased water level at the shoreline an additional 1 to 2 m (3 to 6 ft). The combined effects of surge and storm-induced wave runup created elevated total water levels at the shoreline over many tidal cycles, exposing the sandy beaches of the Florida gulf coast to conditions that caused erosion. 

The USGS Hurricanes and Extreme Storms Group investigates coastal change caused by major storms. Predictions of coastal change expected during the landfall of Tropical Storm Colin are made using a USGS-developed model that compares modeled total water levels and observed beach elevations. View and interact with probabilities of storm-induced coastal change, as well as dune elevation and forecast water levels, in the Coastal Change Hazards Portal. Forecasts showing the timing and magnitude of elevated water levels at the shoreline are available in real-time for the Florida Gulf Coast in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer

Total Water Level and Coastal-Change Forecast Viewer on June 4, 2016

The Total Water Level and Coastal-Change Forecast Viewer on June 4, 2016, two days before Tropical Storm Colin was expected to hit Florida. The forecast for June 6 at Treasure Island (blue balloon on map at left) shows total water level (top right) and water height relative to the beach dune (lower right.) (Public domain.)