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Tidal Wetland Elevation Projections for Five San Francisco Bay Delta Regions Using WARMER-2, 2000-2100

February 23, 2022

Projections of marsh elevation change with WARMER-2 across five regions of the San Francisco Bay Delta (Cache Yolo, South Delta, North Delta, Central Delta, and Suisun). The model was run across a range of initial elevations for each region and for scenarios of sea-level rise (30, 61, 91, 122, 152, 183, 305 cm by 2100), sediment availability (historic, constant, declining, and increase), and with and without a temporally dynamic tidal range. Results from the Delta Simulation Model 2 hydrodynamic model were used to calculate rates of tide range increase with sea-level rise. WARMER-2 was calibrated using soil cores from Callaway et al 2012 (Rush Ranch and Browns Island cores), and a soil core from Miners Slough.

Callaway, J.C., Borgnis, E.L., Turner, R.E. and Milan, C.S., 2012. Carbon sequestration and sediment accretion in San Francisco Bay tidal wetlands. Estuaries and Coasts, 35(5), pp.1163-1181.