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Tidal Wetland Elevation Projections for Five San Francisco Bay Delta Regions Using WARMER-2, 2000-2100

February 23, 2022

Projections of marsh elevation change with WARMER-2 across five regions of the San Francisco Bay Delta (Cache Yolo, South Delta, North Delta, Central Delta, and Suisun). The model was run across a range of initial elevations for each region and for scenarios of sea-level rise (30, 61, 91, 122, 152, 183, 305 cm by 2100), sediment availability (historic, constant, declining, and increase), and with and without a temporally dynamic tidal range. Results from the Delta Simulation Model 2 hydrodynamic model were used to calculate rates of tide range increase with sea-level rise. WARMER-2 was calibrated using soil cores from Callaway et al 2012 (Rush Ranch and Browns Island cores), and a soil core from Miners Slough.

References:
Callaway, J.C., Borgnis, E.L., Turner, R.E. and Milan, C.S., 2012. Carbon sequestration and sediment accretion in San Francisco Bay tidal wetlands. Estuaries and Coasts, 35(5), pp.1163-1181.