Publications

The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration (0.02–10 s)...

The U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER alert system provides rapid (10-20 min) but general loss estimates of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for significant global earthquakes. FEMA’s Hazus software, in contrast, provides time consuming (2-5 hours) but more detailed loss information quantified in terms of structural, social, and economic consequences estimated at a much higher...

A once-per-century geoelectric hazard map is created for the United States high-voltage power grid. A statistical extrapolation from 31 years of magnetic field measurements is made by identifying 84 geomagnetic storms with the Kp and Dst indices. Data from 24 geomagnetic observatories, 1079 magnetotelluric survey sites, and 17,258 transmission lines are utilized to perform a geoelectric...

We deployed a network of 68 three-component geophones on the slow moving Two Towers earthflow in northern California. We compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) from the ambient seismic field. The HVSRs have two prominent peaks, one near 1.23 Hz and another between 4 and 8 Hz at most stations. The 1.23 Hz resonance is a property of the background noise field and may be due...

Two catastrophic landslides occurred in quick succession on 13 and 16 May 2019, from the north face of Joffre Peak, Cerise Creek, southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia. With headscarps at 2560 m and 2690 m elevation, both began as rock avalanches, rapidly transforming into debris flows along middle Cerise Creek, and finally into debris floods affecting the fan. Beyond the fan margin...

On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria triggered widespread debris flows in Puerto Rico. We used field observations and pre- and post-Maria lidar to study the volumetric growth of long-travelled (>400 m) debris flows in four basins. We found overall growth rates that ranged from 0.7 to 30.4 m3 per meter of channel length. We partitioned the rates into two growth mechanisms, aggregation...

The 800-mile Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) passes through extremely remote regions, where there is a high potential for seismic activity. Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, the TAPS operator, has been on the forefront of seismic engineering and situational awareness, and continues to enhance its capabilities. TAPS has used earthquake monitoring since the pipeline was constructed in...

(Re)insurance companies rely on earthquake risk models to estimate the frequency and severity of their potential financial losses. To protect themselves, they sometimes use parametric risk transfer solutions, which are derivative-form agreements that provide compensation as a function of routine measurable earthquake characteristics. These mechanisms typically remain in force for one to...

We report on advancements in both hazard and consequence modeling that form the core of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) strategy to improve rapid earthquake shaking and loss estimates. Whereas our primary goal is to improve our operational capabilities of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, the science, software, and datasets behind these systems continue to advance uses...

New detailed mapping of the geologic resources of the Nation has the potential to significantly close the gap in the essential data needed to fuel a modern era of economic development and technological innovation, while at the same time dramatically enhancing our understanding of the fundamental way geology impacts everyday life, from the domestic critical mineral resources that are...

This paper summarizes a comprehensive set of proposals to the Provisions Update Committee of the Building Seismic Safety Council that would incorporate multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and related proposals to the ASCE 7-22 Seismic Subcommittee of the...

The destructive and deadly nature of debris flows has motivated research into empirical rainfall thresholds to provide situational awareness, inform early warning systems, and reduce loss of life and property. Disturbances such as wildfire and land-cover change can influence the hydrological processes of infiltration and runoff generation; in steep terrain this typically lowers empirical