Publications

The Nephi segment of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) comprises two fault strands, the northern and southern strands, which have evidence of recurrent late Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes. We excavated paleoseismic trenches across these strands to refine and expand their Holocene earthquake chronologies; improve estimates of earthquake recurrence, displacement, and fault slip rate; and...

Alternative fault-rupture-scaling relationships are developed for Mw 7.1– 9.5 subduction interface earthquakes using a new database of consistently derived finitefault rupture models from teleseismic inversion. Scaling relationships are derived for rupture area, rupture length, rupture width, maximum slip, and average slip. These relationships apply width saturation for large-magnitude...

Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for...

We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic...

Comparisons of pre-earthquake and post-earthquake microfossils in tidal sequences are accurate means to measure coastal subsidence during past subduction earthquakes, but the amount of subsidence is uncertain, because the response times of fossil taxa to coseismic relative sea-level (RSL) rise are unknown. We measured the response of diatoms and foraminifera to restoration of a salt...

The 6 November 2011 M w 5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma is the second largest earthquake ever recorded in the state. A M w 4.8 foreshock and the M w 5.7 mainshock triggered a prolific aftershock sequence. Utilizing a subspace detection method, we increase by fivefold the number of precisely located events between 4 November and 5 December 2011. We find that while most aftershock...

Glacial chronologies provide insight into the evolution of paleo-landscapes, paleoclimate, topography, and the erosion processes that shape mountain ranges. In the Pamir of Central Asia, glacial morphologies and deposits indicate extensive past glaciations, whose timing and extent remain poorly constrained. Geomorphic data and 15 new 10Be exposure ages from moraine boulders and roches...

The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of...

We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type...

This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research...

An examination is made of opportunities and challenges for enhancing global, real-time geomagnetic monitoring that would be beneficial for a variety of operational projects. This enhancement in geomagnetic monitoring can be attained by expanding the geographic distribution of magnetometer stations, improving the quality of magnetometer data, increasing acquisition sampling rates...

We estimate stress drops for earthquakes in and near the continental United States using the method of spectral ratios. The ratio of acceleration spectra between collocated earthquakes recorded at a given station removes the effects of path and recording site and yields source parameters including corner frequency for, and the ratio of seismic moment between, the two earthquakes. We...