2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands Long-term National Seismic Hazard Model
Active
By Earthquake Hazards Program
March 17, 2025
We anticipate the final 2025 PRVI NSHM to be available by December 21st 2025.
Summary
The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a draft update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first update of the PRVI NSHM was completed in 2003, and therefore this update includes over 20 years of updated science and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates include (1) a seismicity catalog based on revised Puerto Rico Seismic Network data, (2) new declustering, smoothing, and seismicity rate models, (3) new magnitude scaling relationships, (4) an updated geologic fault and deformation model, (5) new modeling of subduction zone geometry and deformation, (6) improved fault source rupture models and a more complete representation of epistemic uncertainties, (7) updated ground motion models for both crustal and subduction sources, with adjustments made based on PRVI-specific data, and (8) development of epistemic and aleatory variability models specific to PRVI. These updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. NSHMs are community- and consensus-based models, with the goal to incorporate the latest data, models, and methods currently available. Public workshops throughout the update process, as well as an extensive review process, allow for community feedback and acceptance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM. The final model is expected to be released by the end of calendar year 2025.
Documentation for the 2025 PRVI NSHM is currently being finalized. A summary of the documentation is below. URLs will be updated as the documentation becomes publicly available.
Overview Documentation and Data
Title | Authors | URL |
| The U.S. Geological Survey's 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands | Shumway AM, Milner KR, and others | tbd |
| Data Release for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model | Shumway AM, Milner KR, and others | https://doi.org/10.5066/P14ATJLJ |
Supporting Documentation:
(Input data, models, and methods)
Title | Authors | URL |
Earthquake Rupture Forecast | ||
| Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico—U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component | Thompson Jobe JA, Briggs RW and others | https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230222 |
| Earthquake geology inputs for the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2025 (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands), version 1.0 | Thompson Jobe JA, Briggs RW and others | https://doi.org/10.5066/P9ONHNOD |
| Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model | Haynie KL, Thompson EM, and others | https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250078 |
| Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model | Llenos AL, Michael AJ, and others | https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250043 |
| Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25 Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands update | Hatem AH, Milner KR, and others | tbd |
| An inversion approach to calculating interface rupture rates: An example from the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands region | Briggs RW, Milner KR, and others | tbd |
| Capturing the uncertainty of seismicity observations in earthquake rate estimates and implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model | Michael AJ and Llenos AL | tbd |
| The USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast | Milner KR, Hatem AE, and others | tbd |
Ground-Motion Characterization | ||
| Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands | Aagaard BT, Moschetti MP, and others | tbd |
| The 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Ground motion model selection and comparison | Withers KB, Moschetti MP, and others | tbd |
| Ground-motion aleatory variability models for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands | Moschetti MP, Aagaard BT, and others | tbd |
| Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands | Moschetti MP, Aagaard BT, and others | tbd |
Review Process Documentation
Title | Authors | URL |
| National Seismic Hazard Model Steering Committee Review of the 2025 PRVI NSHM | Stewart JP and others | tbd |
| ERF Review Panel Review of the 2025 PRVI NSHM | Jordan TH and others | tbd |
| Panel Review of Ground Motion Characterization Model for the 2025 Update of the NSHM for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands | Stewart JP and others | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/28m4b7jr |
Data Release for Luminescence: Neotectonic Mapping of Puerto Rico Data Release for Luminescence: Neotectonic Mapping of Puerto Rico
This report details the luminescence ages and characteristics of four (4) samples that were collected by Jessica Jobe and Rich Briggs of the USGS. These samples are from Holocene and Pleistocene sediments offset by a fault that is exposed in a road cut. The roadcut is in Puerto Rico at 18.003828 and -67.140249 with an elevation of 13.5 m. The sample depths from the modern surface varied...
Puerto Rico new radiometric age analyses Puerto Rico new radiometric age analyses
This dataset contains U-Pb isotopic data and associated ages of zircons from selected igneous rocks collected from the region surrounding and including the uplands of the United States Territory of Puerto Rico. The samples were collected as part of geological mapping and research conducted during 2018 and funded by the Mineral Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Zircon...
Datasets documenting neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico Datasets documenting neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico
This data release documents neotectonic mapping of fault-related features on high-resolution lidar-derived topography, data documenting an exposure of the South Lajas fault, and summary information for active and potentially active Quaternary faults on the island of Puerto Rico. The data documenting the exposure of the South Lajas fault include detailed unit descriptions, radiocarbon...
Earthquake geology inputs for the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2025 (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands), version 1.0 Earthquake geology inputs for the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2025 (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands), version 1.0
This Data Release contains preliminary versions of three related geologic input databases for the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) region (62°–70° W and 16°–21° N) of the United States: 1) A fault sections database (“NSHM2025_FaultSections_PRVI_v1’”), which depicts the geometry of faults capable of hosting independent earthquakes, 2) a fault-zone polygon database ("NSHM2025...
Slab2 - A Comprehensive Subduction Zone Geometry Model Slab2 - A Comprehensive Subduction Zone Geometry Model
Subduction zones are home to the most seismically active faults on the planet. The shallow megathrust interface of subduction zones host our largest earthquakes, and are the only faults capable of M9+ ruptures. Despite these facts, our knowledge of subduction zone geometry - which likely plays a key role in determining the spatial extent and ultimately the size of subduction zone...
Filter Total Items: 21
Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded (or background) seismicity models are a critical component of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, accounting for off‐fault and smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. They are typically developed by declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term seismicity rate that can be used to forecast future earthquakes. Here, we present new gridded...
Authors
Andrea Llenos, Andrew Michael, Kirstie Haynie, Allison Shumway, Julie Herrick
Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically releases updates to National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the United States and its territories leveraging current scientific knowledge and methodologies to guide public policy, building codes, and risk assessments regarding potential ground shaking due to earthquakes that may result in infrastructure damage. In subduction zones, there is...
Authors
Kirstie Haynie, Eric Thompson, Mike Hearne, Gavin P. Hayes, David Shelly, Allison Shumway, Andrea Llenos, Andrew Michael, Peter Powers
Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component
The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault‐zone polygons...
Authors
Jessica Jobe, Richard Briggs, Uri ten Brink, Thomas Pratt, K. Hughes, Alexandra Hatem, Christopher DuRoss, Nadine Reitman, Julie Herrick, Sylvia Nicovich, Camille Collett, Katherine M. Scharer, Stephen DeLong
Neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico Neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is part of the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands microplate, along the Caribbean–North American plate boundary between the Puerto Rico trench subduction zone and the Muertos Trough incipient subduction zone. Despite recent seismicity and geodetically constrained deformation of ~3 mm/yr of left-lateral shear across the island, Quaternary fault locations remain largely uncertain...
Authors
Jessica Jobe, Richard Briggs, K. Hughes, J. Joyce, Ryan Gold, Shannon Mahan, Harrison J. Gray, Laura Strickland
Modeled flooding by tsunamis and a storm versus observed extent of coral erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands— Further evidence for a great Caribbean earthquake six centuries ago Modeled flooding by tsunamis and a storm versus observed extent of coral erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands— Further evidence for a great Caribbean earthquake six centuries ago
Models of near-field tsunamis and an extreme hurricane provide further evidence for a great precolonial earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench. The models are benchmarked to brain-coral boulders and cobbles on Anegada, 125 km south of the trench. The models are screened by their success in flooding the mapped sites of these erratics, which were emplaced some six centuries ago. Among 25...
Authors
Yong Wei, Uri ten Brink, Brian Atwater
A detailed view of the 2020-2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence with deep learning A detailed view of the 2020-2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence with deep learning
The 2020–2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence, still ongoing in 2023, is remarkable for its multiple‐fault rupture complexity and elevated aftershock productivity. We applied an automatic workflow to continuous data from 43 seismic stations in Puerto Rico to build an enhanced earthquake catalog with ∼180,000 events for the 3+ yr sequence from 28 December 2019 to 1 January 2023...
Authors
Clara Yoon, Elizabeth Cochran, Elizabeth Vanacore, Victor Huerfano, Gisela Baez-Sanchez, John Wilding, Jonathan D. Smith
Seismic response of a typical shear-wall dominated high-rise condominium building during the January 7, 2020 Mw6.4 Indios, Puerto Rico earthquake Seismic response of a typical shear-wall dominated high-rise condominium building during the January 7, 2020 Mw6.4 Indios, Puerto Rico earthquake
Seismic response records were retrieved from the monitored 21-story (53.26-m-tall) typical Puerto Rican reinforced-concrete shear-wall dominated El Castillo Building in Mayaguez, 50 km from the mainshock epicenter of the January 7, 2020, Mw6.4 offshore Indios, Puerto Rico earthquake. The shear-wall-to-floor areas of the building are 0.97 and 3.49 in the longitudinal and transverse...
Authors
Mehmet Celebi, Eduardo Miranda, Jose Martinez-Cruzado
Holocene surface ruptures on the Salinas Fault and southeastern Great Southern Puerto Rico Fault Zone, South Coastal Plain of Puerto Rico Holocene surface ruptures on the Salinas Fault and southeastern Great Southern Puerto Rico Fault Zone, South Coastal Plain of Puerto Rico
We analyzed light detection and ranging (lidar) data and aerial photography to locate active faults near the south coast of Puerto Rico and excavated paleoseismic trenches across the Salinas fault and the Great Southern Puerto Rico fault zone (GSPRFZ). We document evidence for two Holocene surface‐rupturing earthquakes along both faults. Two earthquakes on the Salinas fault occurred...
Authors
Lucille Piety, Joanna Redwine, Sarah Derouin, Carol Prentice, Keith Kelson, Ralph Klinger, Shannon Mahan
Shallower structure and geomorphology of the southern Puerto Rico offshore margin Shallower structure and geomorphology of the southern Puerto Rico offshore margin
Oblique convergence between the North American and Caribbean plates along the eastern Greater Antilles island arc has yielded the compressive Muertos margin in the backarc region. The Muertos margin is characterized by an asymmetric thrust belt with overall opposite vergence to the subduction system in the forearc region. Offshore south of Puerto Rico, this thrust belt disappears and is...
Authors
Bruna Granja, A. Munoz-Martin, A. Carbó-Gorosabel, Estrada Llanes
Seismic hazard from the Hispaniola subduction zone: correction to "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region" Seismic hazard from the Hispaniola subduction zone: correction to "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region"
No abstract available
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, William Bakun, Claudia Flores
Reply to a comment by Carol S. Prentice, Paul Mann, and Luis R. Peña on: "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region" by U. ten Brink et al. (2011) Reply to a comment by Carol S. Prentice, Paul Mann, and Luis R. Peña on: "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region" by U. ten Brink et al. (2011)
No abstract available.
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, William Bakun, Claudia Flores
Comment on “Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region” by U. ten Brink et al. Comment on “Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region” by U. ten Brink et al.
The analysis of historical earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean by ten Brink et al. [2011, hereafter TB11] addresses the occurrence of large and destructive historical earthquakes associated with the North American-Caribbean plate boundary. One conclusion presented in TB11 is that the recurrence interval for large earthquakes on the left-lateral, strike-slip Septentrional Fault (SF)...
Authors
Carol Prentice, Paul Mann, Luis Pena
USGS Earthquake Hazard Toolbox: nshmp-apps USGS Earthquake Hazard Toolbox: nshmp-apps
NSHM Hazard Tool, a suite of web tools for the NSHMP.
nshmp-haz-v2 nshmp-haz-v2
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) codes for performing probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. These codes are intended for use with seismic hazard models developed by the NSHMP for the U.S. and its territories. This project includes a variety of command line applications and web service classes and relies on the nshmp-lib...
nshmp-lib nshmp-lib
nshmp-lib is a USGS developed Java library that supports probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. This project includes all the code required to load, process and query USGS National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs). nshmp-lib is used by command line applications and web services found in the nshmp-haz project. See that project for running PSHA calculations.
NSHMP Models, Codes and Catalogs - National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project NSHMP Models, Codes and Catalogs - National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project
Models, Codes and Catalogs used to produce the National Seismic Hazard Maps.
Filter Total Items: 20
We anticipate the final 2025 PRVI NSHM to be available by December 21st 2025.
Summary
The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a draft update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first update of the PRVI NSHM was completed in 2003, and therefore this update includes over 20 years of updated science and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates include (1) a seismicity catalog based on revised Puerto Rico Seismic Network data, (2) new declustering, smoothing, and seismicity rate models, (3) new magnitude scaling relationships, (4) an updated geologic fault and deformation model, (5) new modeling of subduction zone geometry and deformation, (6) improved fault source rupture models and a more complete representation of epistemic uncertainties, (7) updated ground motion models for both crustal and subduction sources, with adjustments made based on PRVI-specific data, and (8) development of epistemic and aleatory variability models specific to PRVI. These updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. NSHMs are community- and consensus-based models, with the goal to incorporate the latest data, models, and methods currently available. Public workshops throughout the update process, as well as an extensive review process, allow for community feedback and acceptance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM. The final model is expected to be released by the end of calendar year 2025.
Documentation for the 2025 PRVI NSHM is currently being finalized. A summary of the documentation is below. URLs will be updated as the documentation becomes publicly available.
Overview Documentation and Data
Title | Authors | URL |
| The U.S. Geological Survey's 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands | Shumway AM, Milner KR, and others | tbd |
| Data Release for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model | Shumway AM, Milner KR, and others | https://doi.org/10.5066/P14ATJLJ |
Supporting Documentation:
(Input data, models, and methods)
Title | Authors | URL |
Earthquake Rupture Forecast | ||
| Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico—U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component | Thompson Jobe JA, Briggs RW and others | https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230222 |
| Earthquake geology inputs for the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2025 (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands), version 1.0 | Thompson Jobe JA, Briggs RW and others | https://doi.org/10.5066/P9ONHNOD |
| Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model | Haynie KL, Thompson EM, and others | https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250078 |
| Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model | Llenos AL, Michael AJ, and others | https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250043 |
| Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25 Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands update | Hatem AH, Milner KR, and others | tbd |
| An inversion approach to calculating interface rupture rates: An example from the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands region | Briggs RW, Milner KR, and others | tbd |
| Capturing the uncertainty of seismicity observations in earthquake rate estimates and implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model | Michael AJ and Llenos AL | tbd |
| The USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast | Milner KR, Hatem AE, and others | tbd |
Ground-Motion Characterization | ||
| Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands | Aagaard BT, Moschetti MP, and others | tbd |
| The 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Ground motion model selection and comparison | Withers KB, Moschetti MP, and others | tbd |
| Ground-motion aleatory variability models for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands | Moschetti MP, Aagaard BT, and others | tbd |
| Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands | Moschetti MP, Aagaard BT, and others | tbd |
Review Process Documentation
Title | Authors | URL |
| National Seismic Hazard Model Steering Committee Review of the 2025 PRVI NSHM | Stewart JP and others | tbd |
| ERF Review Panel Review of the 2025 PRVI NSHM | Jordan TH and others | tbd |
| Panel Review of Ground Motion Characterization Model for the 2025 Update of the NSHM for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands | Stewart JP and others | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/28m4b7jr |
Data Release for Luminescence: Neotectonic Mapping of Puerto Rico Data Release for Luminescence: Neotectonic Mapping of Puerto Rico
This report details the luminescence ages and characteristics of four (4) samples that were collected by Jessica Jobe and Rich Briggs of the USGS. These samples are from Holocene and Pleistocene sediments offset by a fault that is exposed in a road cut. The roadcut is in Puerto Rico at 18.003828 and -67.140249 with an elevation of 13.5 m. The sample depths from the modern surface varied...
Puerto Rico new radiometric age analyses Puerto Rico new radiometric age analyses
This dataset contains U-Pb isotopic data and associated ages of zircons from selected igneous rocks collected from the region surrounding and including the uplands of the United States Territory of Puerto Rico. The samples were collected as part of geological mapping and research conducted during 2018 and funded by the Mineral Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Zircon...
Datasets documenting neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico Datasets documenting neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico
This data release documents neotectonic mapping of fault-related features on high-resolution lidar-derived topography, data documenting an exposure of the South Lajas fault, and summary information for active and potentially active Quaternary faults on the island of Puerto Rico. The data documenting the exposure of the South Lajas fault include detailed unit descriptions, radiocarbon...
Earthquake geology inputs for the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2025 (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands), version 1.0 Earthquake geology inputs for the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2025 (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands), version 1.0
This Data Release contains preliminary versions of three related geologic input databases for the Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) region (62°–70° W and 16°–21° N) of the United States: 1) A fault sections database (“NSHM2025_FaultSections_PRVI_v1’”), which depicts the geometry of faults capable of hosting independent earthquakes, 2) a fault-zone polygon database ("NSHM2025...
Slab2 - A Comprehensive Subduction Zone Geometry Model Slab2 - A Comprehensive Subduction Zone Geometry Model
Subduction zones are home to the most seismically active faults on the planet. The shallow megathrust interface of subduction zones host our largest earthquakes, and are the only faults capable of M9+ ruptures. Despite these facts, our knowledge of subduction zone geometry - which likely plays a key role in determining the spatial extent and ultimately the size of subduction zone...
Filter Total Items: 21
Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model
Gridded (or background) seismicity models are a critical component of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, accounting for off‐fault and smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. They are typically developed by declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term seismicity rate that can be used to forecast future earthquakes. Here, we present new gridded...
Authors
Andrea Llenos, Andrew Michael, Kirstie Haynie, Allison Shumway, Julie Herrick
Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model Subduction zone earthquake catalog separation tool: Implementation in the USGS 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically releases updates to National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the United States and its territories leveraging current scientific knowledge and methodologies to guide public policy, building codes, and risk assessments regarding potential ground shaking due to earthquakes that may result in infrastructure damage. In subduction zones, there is...
Authors
Kirstie Haynie, Eric Thompson, Mike Hearne, Gavin P. Hayes, David Shelly, Allison Shumway, Andrea Llenos, Andrew Michael, Peter Powers
Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component
The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault‐zone polygons...
Authors
Jessica Jobe, Richard Briggs, Uri ten Brink, Thomas Pratt, K. Hughes, Alexandra Hatem, Christopher DuRoss, Nadine Reitman, Julie Herrick, Sylvia Nicovich, Camille Collett, Katherine M. Scharer, Stephen DeLong
Neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico Neotectonic mapping of Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is part of the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands microplate, along the Caribbean–North American plate boundary between the Puerto Rico trench subduction zone and the Muertos Trough incipient subduction zone. Despite recent seismicity and geodetically constrained deformation of ~3 mm/yr of left-lateral shear across the island, Quaternary fault locations remain largely uncertain...
Authors
Jessica Jobe, Richard Briggs, K. Hughes, J. Joyce, Ryan Gold, Shannon Mahan, Harrison J. Gray, Laura Strickland
Modeled flooding by tsunamis and a storm versus observed extent of coral erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands— Further evidence for a great Caribbean earthquake six centuries ago Modeled flooding by tsunamis and a storm versus observed extent of coral erratics on Anegada, British Virgin Islands— Further evidence for a great Caribbean earthquake six centuries ago
Models of near-field tsunamis and an extreme hurricane provide further evidence for a great precolonial earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench. The models are benchmarked to brain-coral boulders and cobbles on Anegada, 125 km south of the trench. The models are screened by their success in flooding the mapped sites of these erratics, which were emplaced some six centuries ago. Among 25...
Authors
Yong Wei, Uri ten Brink, Brian Atwater
A detailed view of the 2020-2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence with deep learning A detailed view of the 2020-2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence with deep learning
The 2020–2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence, still ongoing in 2023, is remarkable for its multiple‐fault rupture complexity and elevated aftershock productivity. We applied an automatic workflow to continuous data from 43 seismic stations in Puerto Rico to build an enhanced earthquake catalog with ∼180,000 events for the 3+ yr sequence from 28 December 2019 to 1 January 2023...
Authors
Clara Yoon, Elizabeth Cochran, Elizabeth Vanacore, Victor Huerfano, Gisela Baez-Sanchez, John Wilding, Jonathan D. Smith
Seismic response of a typical shear-wall dominated high-rise condominium building during the January 7, 2020 Mw6.4 Indios, Puerto Rico earthquake Seismic response of a typical shear-wall dominated high-rise condominium building during the January 7, 2020 Mw6.4 Indios, Puerto Rico earthquake
Seismic response records were retrieved from the monitored 21-story (53.26-m-tall) typical Puerto Rican reinforced-concrete shear-wall dominated El Castillo Building in Mayaguez, 50 km from the mainshock epicenter of the January 7, 2020, Mw6.4 offshore Indios, Puerto Rico earthquake. The shear-wall-to-floor areas of the building are 0.97 and 3.49 in the longitudinal and transverse...
Authors
Mehmet Celebi, Eduardo Miranda, Jose Martinez-Cruzado
Holocene surface ruptures on the Salinas Fault and southeastern Great Southern Puerto Rico Fault Zone, South Coastal Plain of Puerto Rico Holocene surface ruptures on the Salinas Fault and southeastern Great Southern Puerto Rico Fault Zone, South Coastal Plain of Puerto Rico
We analyzed light detection and ranging (lidar) data and aerial photography to locate active faults near the south coast of Puerto Rico and excavated paleoseismic trenches across the Salinas fault and the Great Southern Puerto Rico fault zone (GSPRFZ). We document evidence for two Holocene surface‐rupturing earthquakes along both faults. Two earthquakes on the Salinas fault occurred...
Authors
Lucille Piety, Joanna Redwine, Sarah Derouin, Carol Prentice, Keith Kelson, Ralph Klinger, Shannon Mahan
Shallower structure and geomorphology of the southern Puerto Rico offshore margin Shallower structure and geomorphology of the southern Puerto Rico offshore margin
Oblique convergence between the North American and Caribbean plates along the eastern Greater Antilles island arc has yielded the compressive Muertos margin in the backarc region. The Muertos margin is characterized by an asymmetric thrust belt with overall opposite vergence to the subduction system in the forearc region. Offshore south of Puerto Rico, this thrust belt disappears and is...
Authors
Bruna Granja, A. Munoz-Martin, A. Carbó-Gorosabel, Estrada Llanes
Seismic hazard from the Hispaniola subduction zone: correction to "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region" Seismic hazard from the Hispaniola subduction zone: correction to "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region"
No abstract available
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, William Bakun, Claudia Flores
Reply to a comment by Carol S. Prentice, Paul Mann, and Luis R. Peña on: "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region" by U. ten Brink et al. (2011) Reply to a comment by Carol S. Prentice, Paul Mann, and Luis R. Peña on: "Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region" by U. ten Brink et al. (2011)
No abstract available.
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, William Bakun, Claudia Flores
Comment on “Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region” by U. ten Brink et al. Comment on “Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region” by U. ten Brink et al.
The analysis of historical earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean by ten Brink et al. [2011, hereafter TB11] addresses the occurrence of large and destructive historical earthquakes associated with the North American-Caribbean plate boundary. One conclusion presented in TB11 is that the recurrence interval for large earthquakes on the left-lateral, strike-slip Septentrional Fault (SF)...
Authors
Carol Prentice, Paul Mann, Luis Pena
USGS Earthquake Hazard Toolbox: nshmp-apps USGS Earthquake Hazard Toolbox: nshmp-apps
NSHM Hazard Tool, a suite of web tools for the NSHMP.
nshmp-haz-v2 nshmp-haz-v2
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) codes for performing probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. These codes are intended for use with seismic hazard models developed by the NSHMP for the U.S. and its territories. This project includes a variety of command line applications and web service classes and relies on the nshmp-lib...
nshmp-lib nshmp-lib
nshmp-lib is a USGS developed Java library that supports probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and related analyses. This project includes all the code required to load, process and query USGS National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs). nshmp-lib is used by command line applications and web services found in the nshmp-haz project. See that project for running PSHA calculations.
NSHMP Models, Codes and Catalogs - National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project NSHMP Models, Codes and Catalogs - National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project
Models, Codes and Catalogs used to produce the National Seismic Hazard Maps.
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