Earthquake Hazards Program

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Filter Total Items: 2,123
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Year Published: 2020

Hydrologically induced deformation in Long Valley Caldera and adjacent Sierra Nevada

Vertical and horizontal components of GNSS displacements in the Long Valley Caldera and adjacent Sierra Nevada range show a clear correlation with hydrological trends at both multiyear and seasonal time scales. We observe a clear vertical and horizontal seasonal deformation pattern primarily attributable to the solid earth response to hydrological...

Silverii, Francesca; Montgomery-Brown, Emily; Borsa, Adrian; Barbour, Andrew

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Year Published: 2020

Science plan for improving three-dimensional seismic velocity models in the San Francisco Bay region, 2019–24

This five-year science plan outlines short-term and long-term goals for improving three-dimensional seismic velocity models in the greater San Francisco Bay region as well as how to foster a community effort in reaching those goals. The short-term goals focus on improving the current U.S. Geological Survey San Francisco Bay region geologic and...

Aagaard, Brad T.; Graymer, Russell W.; Thurber, Clifford H.; Rodgers, Arthur J.; Taira, Taka'aki; Catchings, Rufus D.; Goulet, Christine A.; Plesch, Andreas
Aagaard, B.T., Graymer, R.W., Thurber, C.H., Rodgers, A.J., Taira, T., Catchings, R.D., Goulet, C.A., and Plesch, A., 2020, Science plan for improving three-dimensional seismic velocity models in the San Francisco Bay region, 2019–24: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1019, 37 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201019.

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Year Published: 2020

Practical limitations of Earthquake Early Warning

Earthquake Early Earning (EEW) entails detection of initial earthquake shaking and rapid estimation and notification to users prior to imminent, stronger shaking. EEW is coming to the U.S. West Coast. But what are the technical and social challenges to delivering actionable information on earthquake shaking before it arrives? Although there will...

Wald, David J.

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Year Published: 2020

Earthquake early warning ShakeAlert 2.0: Public rollout

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System is designed to automatically identify and characterize the initiation and rupture evolution of large earthquakes, estimate the intensity of ground shaking that will result, and deliver alerts to people and systems that may experience shaking, prior to the occurrence of shaking at their location. It is...

Kohler, Monica; Smith, Deborah E.; Andrews, Jennifer; Chung, Angela I.; Hartog, Renate; Henson, Ivan; Given, Douglas D.; deGroot, Robert Michael; Guiwits, Stephen Robert

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Year Published: 2020

Ground-motion predictions for California-Comparisons of three prediction equations

We systematically evaluate datasets, functional forms, independent parameters of estimation, and resulting ground-motion predictions (as median and aleatory variability) of the Graizer and Kalkan (2015, 2016) (GK15) ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) with the next generation of attenuation project (NGA-West2) models of Abrahamson and others...

Kalkan, Erol; Graizer, Vladimir
Kalkan, E., and Graizer, V., 2020, Ground-motion predictions for California—Comparisons of three prediction equations: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1028, 28 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201028.

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Year Published: 2020

Probabilistic regional-scale liquefaction triggering modeling using 3D Gaussian processes

Liquefaction is a major cause of coseismic damages, occurring irregularly over hundreds or thousands of square kilometers in large earthquakes. Large variations in the extent and location of liquefaction have been observed in recent earthquakes, motivating the need for prediction methods that consider the spatial heterogeneity of geologic deposits...

Greenfield, Michael; Grant, Alex R. R.

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Year Published: 2020

Regionally Optimized Background Earthquake Rates from ETAS (ROBERE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

We use an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) based approach to develop a regionally optimized background earthquake rates from ETAS (ROBERE) method for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. ROBERE fits parameters to the full seismicity catalog for a region with maximum‐likelihood estimation, including uncertainty. It then averages the...

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

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Year Published: 2020

Activation of optimally and unfavourably oriented faults in a uniform local stress field during the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, sequence

The orientations of faults activated relative to the local principal stress directions can provide insights into the role of pore pressure changes in induced earthquake sequences. Here, we examine the 2011 M 5.7 Prague earthquake sequence that was induced by nearby wastewater disposal. We estimate the local principal compressive stress...

Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Skoumal, Robert; McPhillips, Devin; Ross, Z.; Keranen, Katie M.

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Year Published: 2020

Mechanics of near-field deformation during co- and post-seismic shallow fault slip

Poor knowledge of how faults slip and distribute deformation in the shallow crust hinders efforts to mitigate hazards where faults increasingly intersect with the expanding global population at Earth’s surface. Here we analyze two study sites along the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake rupture, each dominated by either co- or post-...

Nevitt, Johanna; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Catchings, Rufus D.; Goldman, Mark; Ericksen, Todd; Glennie, Craig L.

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Year Published: 2020

Dynamic rupture simulations of the M6.4 and M7.1 July 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquakes

The largest earthquakes of the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence were a M 6.4 left‐lateral rupture followed 34 hr later by a M 7.1 on a perpendicular right‐lateral fault. We use dynamic rupture modeling to address the questions of why the first earthquake did not propagate through the right‐lateral fault in one larger event, whether stress...

Lozos, Julian C.; Harris, Ruth A.

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Year Published: 2020

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) impacts climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the 20th Century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6; however, confidence in future IOD changes is limited by known biases in...

Abram, Nerilie J.; Wright, Nicky M.; Ellis, Bethany; Dixon, Bronwyn C.; Wurtzel, Jennifer B.; England, Matthew H.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Philibosian, Belle; Cahyarini, Sri Yudawati; Yu, Tsai-Luen; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Heslop, David

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Year Published: 2020

An analysis of the factors that control fault zone architecture and the importance of fault orientation relative to regional stress

The moment magnitude 7.2 El Mayor−Cucapah (EMC) earthquake of 2010 in northern Baja California, Mexico produced a cascading rupture that propagated through a geometrically diverse network of intersecting faults. These faults have been exhumed from depths of 6−10 km since the late Miocene based on low-temperature thermochronology, synkinematic...

Fletcher, John; Teran, Orlando; Rockwell, Tom; Oskin, Michael E.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Spelz, Ronald; Lacan, Pierre; Dorsey, Mathew; Ostermijer, Giles; Mitchell, Thomas M.; Akciz, Sinan; Hernandez-Flores, Ana Paula; Hinojosa-Corona, Alejandro; Peña-Villa, Ivan; Lynch, David K.