Modeling First Records to Guide Invasive Species Biosurveillance in Hawai‘i
Early detection of invasive species can enable their successful eradication. With climate change and dynamic patterns of global trade, it is difficult to predict which new invasive species will next get introduced and where introduction and establishment will occur. We are analyzing where non-native species have first established in Hawai‘i to develop mapped predictions of the relative risk of new invasions across space to enable more efficient biosurveillance for new invasive species.
Hawai‘i’s Invasive Species Committees work to prevent, detect, and control invasive species on focal island(s). Their strong focus on early action has achieved multiple successful eradications of non-native plants. A successful approach used in early detection has been to search in areas where species have been found previously. We will formalize the approach by using historical first records of non-native plant records in Hawai‘i to create predictive maps to be used as a basis for designing surveys.
We will model first records to the state and first records to each island, focusing on recent decades (1980 – present), to quantify spatial patterns in the risk of introduction and establishment. We will leverage and enhance the newly-available Hawai‘i Alien Plant Informatics Database of first records for plants in Hawai‘i. We are co-developing this research with collaborators from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and with state and local partners to ensure a usable product.
Mapped predictions will also be made publicly available and shared with federal and state land managers, highlighting any hotspots of predicted invasion risk within parks and reserves, such as trail sections where risk of accidental introductions is especially high. Additionally, predictions could prevent new invaders from reaching natural areas by enabling effective early detection and rapid response when populations establish in areas closer to human infrastructure.
Early detection of invasive species can enable their successful eradication. With climate change and dynamic patterns of global trade, it is difficult to predict which new invasive species will next get introduced and where introduction and establishment will occur. We are analyzing where non-native species have first established in Hawai‘i to develop mapped predictions of the relative risk of new invasions across space to enable more efficient biosurveillance for new invasive species.
Hawai‘i’s Invasive Species Committees work to prevent, detect, and control invasive species on focal island(s). Their strong focus on early action has achieved multiple successful eradications of non-native plants. A successful approach used in early detection has been to search in areas where species have been found previously. We will formalize the approach by using historical first records of non-native plant records in Hawai‘i to create predictive maps to be used as a basis for designing surveys.
We will model first records to the state and first records to each island, focusing on recent decades (1980 – present), to quantify spatial patterns in the risk of introduction and establishment. We will leverage and enhance the newly-available Hawai‘i Alien Plant Informatics Database of first records for plants in Hawai‘i. We are co-developing this research with collaborators from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa and with state and local partners to ensure a usable product.
Mapped predictions will also be made publicly available and shared with federal and state land managers, highlighting any hotspots of predicted invasion risk within parks and reserves, such as trail sections where risk of accidental introductions is especially high. Additionally, predictions could prevent new invaders from reaching natural areas by enabling effective early detection and rapid response when populations establish in areas closer to human infrastructure.