Specialty: Quantitative methods, including simulation modeling, to make conservation and management efforts more science-based. Expertise in population and community ecology modeling and analyses. Interdisciplinary training and experience in forest mensuration, plant ecophysiology, remote sensing, GIS and natural resource economics, among others.
Research Interests: Applied conservation research focused on decision support. Research focused on how the response of populations and communities to natural and human-made disturbance determine ecological resilience and shape opportunities for conservation and management. Determining impacts of climate change on Pacific Island ecosystems and their interactions with current serious threats of invasives, land cover change, and fire.
Personal Interests: biking, hiking, playing music, drones.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. 2010 Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
B.S. 2001 Resource Management (Forest Ecology concentration) University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
A.A. 1999 Environmental Studies, Moorpark College, Moorpark, CA
Science and Products
Modeling First Records to Guide Invasive Species Biosurveillance in Hawai‘i
Climatic and Ecological Scenarios to Guide Development of a Spatial Resist-Accept-Direct Portfolio at Nāpuʻu, Hawaiʻi
Forecasting the Spread of Invasive Plants
Mapping Vegetation on Lāna‘i
Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 300 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui
Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai‘i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems
Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios
Hawaiian Islands climate compatibility of Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle (CRB, Oryctes rhinoceros) based on global and local species occurrences 2022
Hawaiian Islands downscaled climate projections for baseline (1983-2012), mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios
Hawaiian Islands bioclimatic variables for baseline and future climate scenarios
Nakula, Maui environmental controls on plant growth and seedling recruitment in a cloud-affected restoration site, 2016-2019
Lanai Island Spatial Prioritization of Native Plant Habitat and Hunting Areas, 2021
Lanai habitat and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species 2011
Hawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019
Hawaii Island, modelled density of malaria-resistant and -susceptible Iiwi following release of malaria-resistant birds under three climate change projections, 2030-2100
Hawaii Land Cover and Habitat Status
Empirical estimation of habitat suitability for rare plant restoration in an era of ongoing climatic shifts
Citizen science can complement professional invasive plant surveys and improve estimates of suitable habitat
High resolution lidar data shed light on inter-island translocation of endangered bird species in the Hawaiian Islands
Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape
A near four-decade time series shows the Hawaiian Islands have been browning since the 1980s
A century of drought in Hawai‘i: Geospatial analysis and synthesis across hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic scales
Bioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i
Future directions to manage wildlife health in a changing climate
Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant
Hawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system
Perceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization for climate sensitive species in the Hawaiian Islands
Landscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests
Avian Malaria Warning System
Data for this warning system is a compilation of NOAA NCDC Global Historical Climatology Network data, Dark Sky API 2-week forecast data, and calculated historical annual climatic averages based on the NOAA NCDC data. All data has been statistically adjusted for each individual site location based on collected site data.
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 20
Modeling First Records to Guide Invasive Species Biosurveillance in Hawai‘i
Early detection of invasive species can enable their successful eradication. With climate change and dynamic patterns of global trade, it is difficult to predict which new invasive species will next get introduced and where introduction and establishment will occur. We are analyzing where non-native species have first established in Hawai‘i to develop mapped predictions of the relative risk of new...Climatic and Ecological Scenarios to Guide Development of a Spatial Resist-Accept-Direct Portfolio at Nāpuʻu, Hawaiʻi
Climate change and invasive species are transforming ecosystems. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework organizes management objectives into those that seek to Resist change and maintain historical ecological communities, those that Accept some or all aspects of ecological transformation, and those that Direct an ecological community to a preferred state. We are evaluating risks posed by climate...Forecasting the Spread of Invasive Plants
We are using invasive plant data - collected locally and globally by government agencies and citizen scientists - to build advanced computer models to map the potential distribution of invasive plant species. Despite large ecological damage and economic costs associated with invasive species; limited funds are available yearly for invasive species control. These products will increase efficiency...Mapping Vegetation on Lāna‘i
We are combining high-resolution spatial imagery with ground-collected data to create detailed classification maps of native and non-native plants on Lāna‘i. We are also using the high-resolution maps, historical satellite and aerial imagery to analyze changes in ‘ua‘u - Hawaiian petrel - nesting habitat. For the first time at island scales in Hawai’i, this species-level mapping uses high...Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 300 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui
Hawaiʻi is often referred to as the endangered species capital of the world, with hundreds of species at risk. While Hawaiian forest birds have garnered attention in the global conservation community as they face imminent extinction due to climate change, climate also poses serious challenges to hundreds of other Hawaiian species. Although traditional recovery plans provide meaningful guidance toPredicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Hawaiʻi’s native forest birds are known worldwide for their diversity and beauty. Unfortunately, many species are heading towards extinction because of bird malaria spread by mosquitoes introduced over a century ago. Remaining populations of these highly threatened forest birds tend to be at high elevations near the tree line on mountains, where cooler temperatures limit mosquitoes and malaria dev...Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly flammable in...Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawai‘i. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in Hawai‘i for the last 40 years...Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns both impact ecological systems, but managing these impacts is difficult without detailed information on the magnitude and timing of these climate-related changes.Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Hawai‘i's precipitation is greatest in upland areas that are typically forested. This precipitation provides water for both people and ecosystems. Precipitation can either run off and contribute to streamflow, or infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants, base flow to streams, or recharge to aquifers. The exact routing that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the...Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Within a context of human-mediated land cover change, invasive competitors, predators and disease, conservation biologists and practitioners are now concerned that climate change will further impact the beleaguered flora and fauna of the Pacific Islands. Across the region and elsewhere, to determine these potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research efforts have focused...Expanding a Dynamic Model of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change for Hawai‘i and Other Pacific Island Ecosystems
Initial studies suggest terrestrial Hawaiian plant species may be vulnerable to climate change. However, these models lack information on species-specific traits that affect ecological and evolutionary responses of species to climate change. Research is needed to refine current vulnerability models and apply these to Pacific Islands outside Hawai‘i. - Data
Hawaiian Islands excess rainfall conditions under current (2002-2012) and future (2090-2099) climate scenarios
One of the determinants of runoff is the occurrence of excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterizedHawaiian Islands climate compatibility of Coconut Rhinoceros Beetle (CRB, Oryctes rhinoceros) based on global and local species occurrences 2022
The arrival of the coconut rhinoceros beetle (CRB, Oryctes rhinoceros) in Hawaii poses serious threats to endemic palm species, crop species and iconic palm trees across the archipelago. As this invasive is found on the island of Oahu primarily at lower elevations, there are concerns about the species spreading towards high value native habitats at higher elevations and/or to other islands acrossHawaiian Islands downscaled climate projections for baseline (1983-2012), mid- (2040-2059), and late-century (2060-2079) scenarios
Global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world, however, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we apply steps to improve the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) to provide credible climate scenarios for climate change impact studies in Hawaii. OuHawaiian Islands bioclimatic variables for baseline and future climate scenarios
We integrated recent climate model projections developed for the State of Hawai’i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used obNakula, Maui environmental controls on plant growth and seedling recruitment in a cloud-affected restoration site, 2016-2019
Fog has been demonstrated to support plant growth, survival and ecosystem maintenance spanning rainfall and elevation gradients across the world. Persistent fog and strong winds on high mountain slopes in Hawai'i create a unique ecological environment. We collected stem diameter measurements of three native plant species at Nakula Natural Area Reserve, Maui, during 2016-2019 and numerous environmeLanai Island Spatial Prioritization of Native Plant Habitat and Hunting Areas, 2021
This data release includes data and metadata on all native plant species, native habitat, and hunting areas included in the spatial prioritization analyses. Broadly, recovery of threatened and endangered species requires specific management actions by natural resource managers at a fine scale. We used a systematic conservation planning framework to outline conservation goals across multiple land-uLanai habitat and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species 2011
This series of five raster datasets includes three input rasters developed to model habitat suitability for two ungulate species on the island of Lanai; the two habitat suitability model raster datasets are also part of this data release. Input datasets were derived from WorldView-2 data to create vegetation (hereafter, NDVI) and bare ground indices, and from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to creHawaiian Islands datasets quantifying the effects of invasive animals and plants on native forests across the archipelago 2019
Dataset includes publicly available geologic and rainfall data, and environmental and ecological data derived or collected for this project. Specifically, water infiltration measurements, interpreted field-saturated hydraulic conductivity values, ungulate activity, vegetation cover, general soil and weather conditions data are included. Soil samples were collected, lab analyzed, and are included iHawaii Island, modelled density of malaria-resistant and -susceptible Iiwi following release of malaria-resistant birds under three climate change projections, 2030-2100
This data set provides the simulated results of releasing malaria-resistant Iiwi into existing populations of wild birds on the Island of Hawaii. Resistant birds are released into mid- and high-elevation forests at different densities at 10-year intervals from 2030 to 2070. Populations of both malaria-resistant and susceptible Iiwi are then predicted at 10-year intervals from release until 2100. PHawaii Land Cover and Habitat Status
These two raster data layers depict the land cover and degree of human disturbance to plant communities on the seven main Hawaiian Islands, and were developed as part of a comprehensive USGS assessment of carbon sequestration potential by natural ecosystems in the State of Hawaii. - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 32
Empirical estimation of habitat suitability for rare plant restoration in an era of ongoing climatic shifts
Accurate estimates of current and future habitat suitability are needed for species that may require assistance in tracking a shifting climate. Standard species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence data are the most common approach for evaluating climatic suitability, but these may suffer from inaccuracies stemming from disequilibrium dynamics and/or an inability to identify suitable cliAuthorsPaul Krushelnycky, Lucas Fortini, Jeffrey Mallinson, Jesse FeltsCitizen science can complement professional invasive plant surveys and improve estimates of suitable habitat
AimCitizen science is a cost-effective potential source of invasive species occurrence data. However, data quality issues due to unstructured sampling approaches may discourage the use of these observations by science and conservation professionals. This study explored the utility of low-structure iNaturalist citizen science data in invasive plant monitoring. We first examined the prevalence of inAuthorsMonica Dimson, Lucas Fortini, Morgan W Tingley, Thomas W GillespieHigh resolution lidar data shed light on inter-island translocation of endangered bird species in the Hawaiian Islands
Translocation, often a management solution reserved for at-risk species, is a highly time-sensitive intervention in the face of a rapidly changing climate. The definition of abiotic and biotic habitat requirements is essential to the selection of appropriate release sites in novel environments. However, field-based approaches to gathering this information are often too time intensive, especially iAuthorsErica M. Gallerani, Jeffrey Burgett, Nicolas R. Vaughn, Lucas Fortini, Geoffrey A. Fricker, Hanna L Mounce, Thomas W. Gillespie, Lisa H. Crampton, David Knapp, Justin M. Hite, Roy GilbEstimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape
In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probAuthorsLucas Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Kimberlie Perkins, Lulin Xue, Yaping WangA near four-decade time series shows the Hawaiian Islands have been browning since the 1980s
The Hawaiian Islands have been identified as a global biodiversity hotspot. We examine the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Climate Data Records products (0.05 × 0.05°) to identify significant differences in NDVI between neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation years (1984, 2019) and significant long-term changes over the entire time series (1982–2019) for the Hawaiian Islands and sAuthorsAustin Madson, Monica Dimson, Lucas Fortini, Kapua Kawelo, Tamara Tickin, Matt Keir, Chunyu Dong, Zhimin Ma, David W Beilman, Kelly Kay, Jonathan Pando Ocón, Erica Gallerani, Stephanie Pau, Thomas W GillespieA century of drought in Hawai‘i: Geospatial analysis and synthesis across hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic scales
Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawaiʻi that we integrate with geospatial analysis of dAuthorsAbby G. Frazier, Christian P. Giardina, Thomas W Giambelluca, Laura Brewington, Yi-Leng Chen, Pao-Shin Chu, Lucas Fortini, David Helweg, Victoria W. Keener, Ryan J Longman, Matthew P Lucas, Alan Mair, Delwyn S. Oki, Julian J Reyes, Stephanie G. Yelenik, Clay TrauernichtBioclimatic variables dataset for baseline and future climate scenarios for climate change studies in Hawai'i
Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the fineAuthorsLucas Fortini, Lauren R. Kaiser, Lulin Xue, Yaping WangFuture directions to manage wildlife health in a changing climate
In September 2019 The Economist wrote an obituary to Okjökull, a glacier in western Iceland that was declared “dead” in 2014, a victim of climate change. Although a few wildlife species have already incurred such a fate (e.g., the Bramble Cay melomys [Melomys rubicola]) (Fulton 2017), many more are on the path to climate-driven extinction (Andermann et al. 2020; Ceballos et al. 2015; He et al. 201AuthorsErik K. Hofmeister, Emily Cornelius Ruhs, Lucas Fortini, M. Camille Hopkins, Lee C. Jones, Kevin D. Lafferty, Jonathan M. Sleeman, Olivia E. LeDeeComplex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant
Alpine plants are likely to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their restricted distributions and sensitivity to rapid environmental shifts occurring in high-elevation ecosystems. The well-studied Haleakalā silversword (‘āhinahina, Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum) already exhibits substantial climate-associated population decline, and offers the opportunity to uAuthorsLucas Fortini, Paul Krushelnycky, Donald Drake, Forest Starr, Kim Starr, Charles G. ChimeraHawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system
As the most remote archipelago in the world, the Hawaiian Islands are home to a highly endemic and disharmonic biota that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Forests are the dominant terrestrial biome in Hawai‘i, spanning complex, heterogeneous climates across substrates that vary tremendously in age, soil structure, and nutrient availability. Species richness is low in Hawaiian forests compaAuthorsKasey Barton, Andrea Westerband, Rebecca Ostertag, Elizabeth Stacy, Kawika Winter, Don Drake, Lucas Fortini, Creighton M Litton, Susan Cordell, Paul Krushelnycky, Kapua Kawelo, Kealoha Feliciano, Gordon Bennett, Tiffany KnightPerceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization for climate sensitive species in the Hawaiian Islands
Conservation actions to safeguard climate change vulnerable species may not be utilized due to a variety of perceived barriers. Assisted colonization, the intentional movement and release of an organism outside its historical range, is one tool available for species predicted to lose habitat under future climate change scenarios, particularly for single island or single mountain range endemic specAuthorsShannon Rivera, Lucas Fortini, Sheldon M. Plentovich, Melissa PriceLandscape level effects of invasive plants and animals on water infiltration through Hawaiian tropical forests
Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conAuthorsLucas Fortini, Christina Leopold, Kimberlie Perkins, Oliver A. Chadwick, Stephanie G. Yelenik, James D. Jacobi, Kaiena Bishaw, Makani Gregg - Web Tools
Avian Malaria Warning System
Data for this warning system is a compilation of NOAA NCDC Global Historical Climatology Network data, Dark Sky API 2-week forecast data, and calculated historical annual climatic averages based on the NOAA NCDC data. All data has been statistically adjusted for each individual site location based on collected site data.
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