A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
Lucas Berio Fortini
Specialty: Quantitative methods, including simulation modeling, to make conservation and management efforts more science-based. Expertise in population and community ecology modeling and analyses. Interdisciplinary training and experience in forest mensuration, plant ecophysiology, remote sensing, GIS and natural resource economics, among others.
Research Interests: Applied conservation research focused on decision support. Research focused on how the response of populations and communities to natural and human-made disturbance determine ecological resilience and shape opportunities for conservation and management. Determining impacts of climate change on Pacific Island ecosystems and their interactions with current serious threats of invasives, land cover change, and fire.
Personal Interests: biking, hiking, playing music, drones.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 21
Modeling First Records to Guide Invasive Species Biosurveillance in Hawai‘i
Early detection of invasive species can enable their successful eradication. With climate change and dynamic patterns of global trade, it is difficult to predict which new invasive species will next get introduced and where introduction and establishment will occur. We are analyzing where non-native species have first established in Hawai‘i to develop mapped predictions of the relative risk of new...
Climatic and Ecological Scenarios to Guide Development of a Spatial Resist-Accept-Direct Portfolio at Nāpuʻu, Hawaiʻi
Climate change and invasive species are transforming ecosystems. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework organizes management objectives into those that seek to Resist change and maintain historical ecological communities, those that Accept some or all aspects of ecological transformation, and those that Direct an ecological community to a preferred state. We are evaluating risks posed by climate...
Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants
Hawaiʻi is known as the “endangered species capital of the world,” an unwelcomed label brought on by more than a century of habitat destruction, invasive species spread, and pollinator and seed disperser declines. Hawaiʿi is home to 400 endangered plant species, most of which are found nowhere else in the world. Conservation managers have spent decades putting enormous effort into...
Forecasting the Spread of Invasive Plants
We are using invasive plant data - collected locally and globally by government agencies and citizen scientists - to build advanced computer models to map the potential distribution of invasive plant species. Despite large ecological damage and economic costs associated with invasive species; limited funds are available yearly for invasive species control. These products will increase efficiency...
Mapping Vegetation on Lāna‘i
We are combining high-resolution spatial imagery with ground-collected data to create detailed classification maps of native and non-native plants on Lāna‘i. We are also using the high-resolution maps, historical satellite and aerial imagery to analyze changes in ‘ua‘u - Hawaiian petrel - nesting habitat. For the first time at island scales in Hawai’i, this species-level mapping uses high...
Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 400 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui
Hawaiʻi is often referred to as the endangered species capital of the world, with hundreds of species at risk. While Hawaiian forest birds have garnered attention in the global conservation community as they face imminent extinction due to climate change, climate also poses serious challenges to hundreds of other Hawaiian species. Although traditional recovery plans provide meaningful...
Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Hawaiʻi’s native forest birds are known worldwide for their diversity and beauty. Unfortunately, many species are heading towards extinction because of bird malaria spread by mosquitoes introduced over a century ago. Remaining populations of these highly threatened forest birds tend to be at high elevations near the tree line on mountains, where cooler temperatures limit mosquitoes and...
Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly...
Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawai‘i. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in Hawai‘i for the last 40 years...
Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns both impact ecological systems, but managing these impacts is difficult without detailed information on the magnitude and timing of these climate-related changes.
Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Hawai‘i's precipitation is greatest in upland areas that are typically forested. This precipitation provides water for both people and ecosystems. Precipitation can either run off and contribute to streamflow, or infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants, base flow to streams, or recharge to aquifers. The exact routing that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the...
Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Within a context of human-mediated land cover change, invasive competitors, predators and disease, conservation biologists and practitioners are now concerned that climate change will further impact the beleaguered flora and fauna of the Pacific Islands. Across the region and elsewhere, to determine these potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research efforts have focused...
‘Akepa in the hand
A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i
Blue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.
Blue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 21
Modeling First Records to Guide Invasive Species Biosurveillance in Hawai‘i
Early detection of invasive species can enable their successful eradication. With climate change and dynamic patterns of global trade, it is difficult to predict which new invasive species will next get introduced and where introduction and establishment will occur. We are analyzing where non-native species have first established in Hawai‘i to develop mapped predictions of the relative risk of new...
Climatic and Ecological Scenarios to Guide Development of a Spatial Resist-Accept-Direct Portfolio at Nāpuʻu, Hawaiʻi
Climate change and invasive species are transforming ecosystems. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework organizes management objectives into those that seek to Resist change and maintain historical ecological communities, those that Accept some or all aspects of ecological transformation, and those that Direct an ecological community to a preferred state. We are evaluating risks posed by climate...
Assessing the Effects of Management Interventions and Climate Variability on Reintroduced Hawaiian Rare Plants
Hawaiʻi is known as the “endangered species capital of the world,” an unwelcomed label brought on by more than a century of habitat destruction, invasive species spread, and pollinator and seed disperser declines. Hawaiʿi is home to 400 endangered plant species, most of which are found nowhere else in the world. Conservation managers have spent decades putting enormous effort into...
Forecasting the Spread of Invasive Plants
We are using invasive plant data - collected locally and globally by government agencies and citizen scientists - to build advanced computer models to map the potential distribution of invasive plant species. Despite large ecological damage and economic costs associated with invasive species; limited funds are available yearly for invasive species control. These products will increase efficiency...
Mapping Vegetation on Lāna‘i
We are combining high-resolution spatial imagery with ground-collected data to create detailed classification maps of native and non-native plants on Lāna‘i. We are also using the high-resolution maps, historical satellite and aerial imagery to analyze changes in ‘ua‘u - Hawaiian petrel - nesting habitat. For the first time at island scales in Hawai’i, this species-level mapping uses high...
Applying a Novel Spatial Prioritization Technique to Support Climate Resilient Conservation Planning for the Recovery of 400 Endangered and At Risk Species in Maui Nui
Hawaiʻi is often referred to as the endangered species capital of the world, with hundreds of species at risk. While Hawaiian forest birds have garnered attention in the global conservation community as they face imminent extinction due to climate change, climate also poses serious challenges to hundreds of other Hawaiian species. Although traditional recovery plans provide meaningful...
Predicting and Mitigating the Threat of Avian Disease to Forest Birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Hawaiʻi’s native forest birds are known worldwide for their diversity and beauty. Unfortunately, many species are heading towards extinction because of bird malaria spread by mosquitoes introduced over a century ago. Remaining populations of these highly threatened forest birds tend to be at high elevations near the tree line on mountains, where cooler temperatures limit mosquitoes and...
Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems
2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly...
Using Plant Physiologic Responses to Environmental Conditions to Improve Species and Habitat Management in Hawaii
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawai‘i. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in Hawai‘i for the last 40 years...
Global Climate Change Impacts on Plants of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns both impact ecological systems, but managing these impacts is difficult without detailed information on the magnitude and timing of these climate-related changes.
Climate and Management Effects on Soil Infiltration and Runoff in Hawaiian Forests
Hawai‘i's precipitation is greatest in upland areas that are typically forested. This precipitation provides water for both people and ecosystems. Precipitation can either run off and contribute to streamflow, or infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants, base flow to streams, or recharge to aquifers. The exact routing that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the...
Support to the Pacific Islands LCC
Within a context of human-mediated land cover change, invasive competitors, predators and disease, conservation biologists and practitioners are now concerned that climate change will further impact the beleaguered flora and fauna of the Pacific Islands. Across the region and elsewhere, to determine these potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research efforts have focused...
‘Akepa in the hand
A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
A bright orange male ‘akepa captured in the Hawaiian rainforest on Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i. Akepa are an endangered species found on only 3 of the 8 main Hawaiian islands. Their geographic range has been restricted by land use change, invasive species, and climate change.
Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i
Blue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.
Blue flagging tape marks the path of a research transect in a Hawaiian rainforest on the island of Moloka'i.