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Predictive models are indeed useful for causal inference Predictive models are indeed useful for causal inference

The subject of investigating causation in ecology has been widely discussed in recent years, especially by advocates of a structural causal model (SCM) approach. Some of these advocates have criticized the use of predictive models and model selection for drawing inferences about causation. We argue that the comparison of model-based predictions with observations is a key step in...
Authors
James D. Nichols, Evan Cooch

Haunted Summerville: Ghostly lights or earthquake lights? Haunted Summerville: Ghostly lights or earthquake lights?

Among the colorful local lore in the Charleston, South Carolina, area, are a number of ghost stories, shared not only over campfires but also in published books. Among the most well-known of the stories is the tale of the Summerville Light. Local lore holds that a strange light sometimes seen in a remote area is a lantern carried by the ghost of a local woman who once waited hours for...
Authors
Susan E. Hough

Recovering the American horseshoe crab through a commitment to collaboration Recovering the American horseshoe crab through a commitment to collaboration

American horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus populations are recovering because of cooperation among diverse stakeholders and data-driven collective action. Limulus polyphemus is one of four extant species facing common threats, and conservation successes and limitations hold lessons applicable to all the species. We review the advancement in management and monitoring over recent decades...
Authors
David R. Smith, Mark Botton, Paul Shin

Variation in energetic balance among free-ranging polar bears during the spring mating and foraging season Variation in energetic balance among free-ranging polar bears during the spring mating and foraging season

Large carnivores are capable of consuming substantial biomasses that can significantly alter their body mass and condition over short periods. Here we examine the intra-seasonal variation of polar bear (Ursus maritimus Phipps, 1774) body mass, energy intake, and condition in the spring from two subpopulations. We evaluate the biological and temporal factors that may have driven changes...
Authors
Anthony M. Pagano, Stephen N. Atkinson, Louise C. Archer

Multiple dimensions define thresholds for population resilience of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica Multiple dimensions define thresholds for population resilience of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica

A species' distribution depends on its tolerance to environmental conditions. These conditions are defined by a minimum, maximum, and optimal ranges of single and combined factors. Forays into environmental conditions outside the minimum or maximum tolerance of a species (i.e., thresholds) are predicted to have large effects on a species' population and may help predict population...
Authors
Megan K. La Peyre, H. Wang, Shaye E. Sable, Wei Wu, Bin Li, Devin Comba, Carlos Perez, Melanie Bates, Lauren M. Swam

The National Park Service Stratotype Inventory The National Park Service Stratotype Inventory

Beginning in 2020, the National Park Service (NPS) began a systematic effort to document the occurrence of stratotypes exposed within, partially within, and near NPS administrative boundaries. The NPS stratotype inventory project represents an important component of a geologic resource inventory, as these designations are vital to our national geologic heritage (“geoheritage”) and...
Authors
Tim C. Henderson, Vince L. Santucci, Justin S. Tweet, Tim Connors, Nancy R. Stamm, Randall C. Orndorff, David R. Soller, Cullen Scheland

Slow slip detectability in seafloor pressure records offshore Alaska Slow slip detectability in seafloor pressure records offshore Alaska

In subduction zones worldwide, seafloor pressure data are used to observe tectonic deformation, particularly from megathrust earthquakes and slow slip events (SSEs). However, such measurements are also sensitive to oceanographic circulation-generated pressures over a range of frequencies that conflate with tectonic signals of interest. Using seafloor pressure and temperature data from...
Authors
Erik Fredrickson, Joan S. Gomberg, William Wilcock, Susan Hautala, Albert Hermann, H. Paul Johnson

The effectiveness of harvest for limiting wildlife disease: Insights from 20 years of chronic wasting disease in Wyoming The effectiveness of harvest for limiting wildlife disease: Insights from 20 years of chronic wasting disease in Wyoming

Effective, practical options for managing disease in wildlife populations are limited, especially after diseases become established. Removal strategies (e.g., hunting or culling) are used to control wildlife diseases across a wide range of systems, despite conflicting evidence of their effectiveness. This is especially true for chronic wasting disease (CWD), an untreatable, fatal prion...
Authors
Wynne Emily Moss, Justin Binfet, L. Embere Hall, Samantha E. Allen, William H. Edwards, Jessica E. Jennings-Gaines, Paul DELETE Cross

Neonicotinoid exposure causes behavioral impairment and delayed mortality of the federally threatened American burying beetle, Nicrophorus americanus Neonicotinoid exposure causes behavioral impairment and delayed mortality of the federally threatened American burying beetle, Nicrophorus americanus

Among the most immediate drivers of American burying beetle (Nicrophorus americanus Olivier) declines, nontarget toxicity to pesticides is poorly understood. Acute, episodic exposure to neonicotinoid insecticides at environmentally relevant concentrations is linked to negative impacts on beneficial terrestrial insect taxa. Beyond mortality, behavioral indicators of toxicity are often...
Authors
Michael C. Cavallaro, Michelle L. Hladik, R. Shane McMurry, Samantha Hittson, Leon K. Boyles, W. Wyatt Hoback

Fatal interactions: Pneumonia in bighorn lambs following experimental exposure to carriers of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae Fatal interactions: Pneumonia in bighorn lambs following experimental exposure to carriers of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae

We hypothesized that bighorn sheep ewes with chronic nasal Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae carriage are the source of infection that results in fatal lamb pneumonia. We tested this hypothesis in captive bighorn ewes at two study facilities over a 5-year period, by identifying carrier ewes and then comparing lamb fates in groups that did (exposed pens) or did not (non-exposed pens) include one...
Authors
Logan K. Weyand, Brandi L. Felts, E. Frances Cassirer, Jonathan A. Jenks, Daniel P. Walsh, Thomas E. Besser

Hysteretic response of suspended-sediment in wildfire affected watersheds of the Pacific Northwest and Southern Rocky Mountains Hysteretic response of suspended-sediment in wildfire affected watersheds of the Pacific Northwest and Southern Rocky Mountains

Wildfires can have a profound impact on hydrosedimentary interactions, or the relationship between sediment and runoff, in forested headwater streams. Quantification of sediment-runoff dynamics at the event scale is integral for understanding source areas and transport of suspended-sediment through a watershed following wildfire. Here we used high-frequency turbidity and stream discharge...
Authors
Gregory D. Clark, Sheila F. Murphy, Katherine Skalak, David W. Clow, Garrett Alexander Akie, Kurt D. Carpenter, Sean E. Payne, Brian A. Ebel

Post-fire recovery of sagebrush-steppe communities is better explained by elevation than climate-derived indicators of resistance and resilience Post-fire recovery of sagebrush-steppe communities is better explained by elevation than climate-derived indicators of resistance and resilience

More landscapes require restoration than can feasibly be treated, and so decision-support tools to prioritize areas for treatment are needed. Moreover, restoration is complicated by the threat of biological invasion in disturbed areas, and so indicators of ecosystem resistance to invasion and resilience to disturbance (hereafter R&R) are important candidate criteria for prioritizing...
Authors
Cara Applestein, Matthew J. Germino
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