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CAP Future of Fire Cohort (2020-2022)

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By Climate Adaptation Science Centers November 30, 2021

National synthesis published!

The Future of Fire cohort developed a new fire use decision model to help guide fire management and policy across the country.

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The inaugural 2021-2023 Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral (CAP) Fellows cohort explores the many ways climate change is altering wildland fire regimes across the country, combining their diverse experiences to synthesize how 21st century fires affect natural and human communities and how managers can prepare for future fires.

About 

Climate change is altering fire dynamics across the country, creating longer, hotter fire seasons that are increasingly destructive. Yet these effects vary considerably across different regions - some communities watch invasive species and hot temperatures ratchet up already smoky summers, while droughts set flame to other areas rarely burned in the past. These changing fire regimes create significant challenges for natural resource managers as they struggle to apply strategies designed for the past to unknown conditions in the future. 

The 2021-2023 "Future of Fires" cohort of the Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral Fellows (CAP Fellows) Program explores regional differences in climate-fire dynamics across the country. They are seeking to: 1) synthesize climate change impacts on fire regimes, management, and response over regional and national scales, 2) explore resulting impacts on fish, wildlife and ecosystems, and 3) develop strategies to help managers adapt to these changes. 

The seven fellows in this cohort are based at regional CASC consortium universities across the country. They work with faculty advisors to lead regionally-focused research projects, while also collaborating with USGS employees and other members of the CASC network on a national-scale synthesis project.

 

Future of Fire Regional Projects

CASC   Project Title Principal Investigator Location Fellow
North Central Future Fire in a Changing Climate:
Science Synthesis & Management Implications		 Jennifer Balch University of Colorado Boulder Jilmarie Stephens
Pacific Islands Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands:
Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland
Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Christian Giardina University of Hawaii Manoa,
USFS Institute of Pacific Islands Forestry		 Alyssa Anderson
Alaska Future of Fire in Alaska:
Towards a National
Synthesis of Wildland Fire
Under a Changing Climate		 Scott Rupp and
Jeremy Littell		 University of Alaska Fairbanks Adam Young
South Central Future of Fire in the South Central:
Towards a National Synthesis
of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Omkar Joshi Oklahoma State University Aaron Russell
Northwest Future of Fire in the North West:
Towards a National Synthesis of
Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Solomon Dobrowski University of Washington Tyler Hoecker
Southwest Future of Fire in the South West:
Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland
Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Beth Rose Middleton
and Hugh Safford		 University of California Davis Nina Fontana
Southeast Fire Climate Synthesis: Development
of an early warning system to identify
changing prescribed burn opportunities
across Southeast US fire-adapted habitats		 Adam Terando North Carolina State University Reetam Majumder

The CAP Fellows Program is supported through the National CASC supported project "Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate." 

 

 

Meet our "Future of Fire" fellows and program leads below! Click on their photos to learn more about each fellow.

Headshot of Alyssa Anderson wearing a white patterned shirt standing in front of tropical green foliage.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Alyssa Anderson, Pacific Islands CASC
 
Headshot of Nina Fontana wearing a black zip up sweater and leaning up against a tree branch.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Nina Fontana, Southwest CASC

​​​​
Headshot of Tyler Hoecker wearing a hat and glasses and standing in front of a forested mountain.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Tyler Hoecker, Northwest CASC
 
Headshot of Reetam Majumder wearing a black shirt
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Reetam Majumder, Southeast CASC

​​
Headshot of Aaron Russell standing in front of a brick wall.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Aaron Russell, South Central CASC
 
Headshot of Jilmarie Stephens wearing a black turtleneck and standing in front of a green pine tree.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Jilmarie Stephens, North Central CASC

 
Headshot of Adam Young, wearing a baseball cap and standing on top of a mountain.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Adam Young, Alaska CASC
 
Headshot of Madeleine Rubenstein standing in front of a stone wall
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details

Madeleine Rubenstein, CAP Fellowship Program Lead, National CASC
Shawn Carter
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details

Shawn Carter, CAP Fellowship Program Lead, National CASC 

 

<< Return to the CAP Fellows Program
link
Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park.

Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information
Learn More
link
Image: A Wall of Fire in Southern California

Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Southwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and their associated disturbances, will change across the landscape. Decision ma
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Southwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and their associated disturbances, will change across the landscape. Decision ma
Learn More
link
sagebrush wildfire

Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Northwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and ecosystem responses, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in na
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Northwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and ecosystem responses, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in na
Learn More
link
Image of fire with large smoke plume

Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time
Learn More
link
Huge blaze engulfing trees

Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Wildfire is a significant yet underappreciated issue on Pacific Islands that threatens ecosystems from ridge-tops to reefs, including native species, waters, human communities, and natural and cultural resources. In the Hawaiian archipelago, the percentage of land burned annually is equal or greater than that burned across the western United States, with most fires occurring in drier nonnative gra
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Wildfire is a significant yet underappreciated issue on Pacific Islands that threatens ecosystems from ridge-tops to reefs, including native species, waters, human communities, and natural and cultural resources. In the Hawaiian archipelago, the percentage of land burned annually is equal or greater than that burned across the western United States, with most fires occurring in drier nonnative gra
Learn More
link
Wildfire in Mason Valley, Nevada

Future of Fire in the North Central: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

As the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) develops a strategic effort around fire science, there is a critical need to develop a national-scale synthesis effort that identifies key regional CASC activities previously conducted, as well as major science gaps that may be addressed by a coordinated CASC network approach. The North Central CASC postdoctoral fellow will play a leadership
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the North Central: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

As the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) develops a strategic effort around fire science, there is a critical need to develop a national-scale synthesis effort that identifies key regional CASC activities previously conducted, as well as major science gaps that may be addressed by a coordinated CASC network approach. The North Central CASC postdoctoral fellow will play a leadership
Learn More
link
Las Conchas Fire

Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize th
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize th
Learn More
link
Controlled burn at Hart Mountain National Wildlife Refuge.

Development of an Early Warning System to Identify Changing Prescribed Burn Opportunities Across Southeast US Fire-Adapted Habitats

Frequent, low-intensity wildfires were once widespread across the Southeast US, which led to a reduction in unchecked vegetation growth that provided fuel for high-intensity fires. Both intentional and unintentional fire suppression and land-use changes have reduced many of these wildfires and the fire-adapted habitats in the region over time. This loss of frequent low-intensity wildfires on the l
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Development of an Early Warning System to Identify Changing Prescribed Burn Opportunities Across Southeast US Fire-Adapted Habitats

Frequent, low-intensity wildfires were once widespread across the Southeast US, which led to a reduction in unchecked vegetation growth that provided fuel for high-intensity fires. Both intentional and unintentional fire suppression and land-use changes have reduced many of these wildfires and the fire-adapted habitats in the region over time. This loss of frequent low-intensity wildfires on the l
Learn More

Through the CAP program, fellows publish research from their individual regional projects, as well as their combined national synthesis project. Check out their publications below!

National Synthesis Project
A fire-use decision model to improve the United States’ wildfire management and support climate change adaptation

A fire-use decision model to improve the United States’ wildfire management and support climate change adaptation

The inaugural 2021-2023 Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral (CAP) Fellows cohort explores the many ways climate change is altering wildland fire regimes across the country, combining their diverse experiences to synthesize how 21st century fires affect natural and human communities and how managers can prepare for future fires.

About 

Climate change is altering fire dynamics across the country, creating longer, hotter fire seasons that are increasingly destructive. Yet these effects vary considerably across different regions - some communities watch invasive species and hot temperatures ratchet up already smoky summers, while droughts set flame to other areas rarely burned in the past. These changing fire regimes create significant challenges for natural resource managers as they struggle to apply strategies designed for the past to unknown conditions in the future. 

The 2021-2023 "Future of Fires" cohort of the Climate Adaptation Postdoctoral Fellows (CAP Fellows) Program explores regional differences in climate-fire dynamics across the country. They are seeking to: 1) synthesize climate change impacts on fire regimes, management, and response over regional and national scales, 2) explore resulting impacts on fish, wildlife and ecosystems, and 3) develop strategies to help managers adapt to these changes. 

The seven fellows in this cohort are based at regional CASC consortium universities across the country. They work with faculty advisors to lead regionally-focused research projects, while also collaborating with USGS employees and other members of the CASC network on a national-scale synthesis project.

 

Future of Fire Regional Projects

CASC   Project Title Principal Investigator Location Fellow
North Central Future Fire in a Changing Climate:
Science Synthesis & Management Implications		 Jennifer Balch University of Colorado Boulder Jilmarie Stephens
Pacific Islands Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands:
Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland
Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Christian Giardina University of Hawaii Manoa,
USFS Institute of Pacific Islands Forestry		 Alyssa Anderson
Alaska Future of Fire in Alaska:
Towards a National
Synthesis of Wildland Fire
Under a Changing Climate		 Scott Rupp and
Jeremy Littell		 University of Alaska Fairbanks Adam Young
South Central Future of Fire in the South Central:
Towards a National Synthesis
of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Omkar Joshi Oklahoma State University Aaron Russell
Northwest Future of Fire in the North West:
Towards a National Synthesis of
Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Solomon Dobrowski University of Washington Tyler Hoecker
Southwest Future of Fire in the South West:
Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland
Fire Under a Changing Climate		 Beth Rose Middleton
and Hugh Safford		 University of California Davis Nina Fontana
Southeast Fire Climate Synthesis: Development
of an early warning system to identify
changing prescribed burn opportunities
across Southeast US fire-adapted habitats		 Adam Terando North Carolina State University Reetam Majumder

The CAP Fellows Program is supported through the National CASC supported project "Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate." 

 

 

Meet our "Future of Fire" fellows and program leads below! Click on their photos to learn more about each fellow.

Headshot of Alyssa Anderson wearing a white patterned shirt standing in front of tropical green foliage.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Alyssa Anderson, Pacific Islands CASC
 
Headshot of Nina Fontana wearing a black zip up sweater and leaning up against a tree branch.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Nina Fontana, Southwest CASC

​​​​
Headshot of Tyler Hoecker wearing a hat and glasses and standing in front of a forested mountain.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Tyler Hoecker, Northwest CASC
 
Headshot of Reetam Majumder wearing a black shirt
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Reetam Majumder, Southeast CASC

​​
Headshot of Aaron Russell standing in front of a brick wall.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Aaron Russell, South Central CASC
 
Headshot of Jilmarie Stephens wearing a black turtleneck and standing in front of a green pine tree.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Jilmarie Stephens, North Central CASC

 
Headshot of Adam Young, wearing a baseball cap and standing on top of a mountain.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Adam Young, Alaska CASC
 
Headshot of Madeleine Rubenstein standing in front of a stone wall
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details

Madeleine Rubenstein, CAP Fellowship Program Lead, National CASC
Shawn Carter
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details

Shawn Carter, CAP Fellowship Program Lead, National CASC 

 

<< Return to the CAP Fellows Program
link
Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park.

Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information
Learn More
link
Image: A Wall of Fire in Southern California

Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Southwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and their associated disturbances, will change across the landscape. Decision ma
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Southwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and their associated disturbances, will change across the landscape. Decision ma
Learn More
link
sagebrush wildfire

Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Northwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and ecosystem responses, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in na
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the Northwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Northwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and ecosystem responses, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in na
Learn More
link
Image of fire with large smoke plume

Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time
Learn More
link
Huge blaze engulfing trees

Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Wildfire is a significant yet underappreciated issue on Pacific Islands that threatens ecosystems from ridge-tops to reefs, including native species, waters, human communities, and natural and cultural resources. In the Hawaiian archipelago, the percentage of land burned annually is equal or greater than that burned across the western United States, with most fires occurring in drier nonnative gra
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the Pacific Islands: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Wildfire is a significant yet underappreciated issue on Pacific Islands that threatens ecosystems from ridge-tops to reefs, including native species, waters, human communities, and natural and cultural resources. In the Hawaiian archipelago, the percentage of land burned annually is equal or greater than that burned across the western United States, with most fires occurring in drier nonnative gra
Learn More
link
Wildfire in Mason Valley, Nevada

Future of Fire in the North Central: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

As the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) develops a strategic effort around fire science, there is a critical need to develop a national-scale synthesis effort that identifies key regional CASC activities previously conducted, as well as major science gaps that may be addressed by a coordinated CASC network approach. The North Central CASC postdoctoral fellow will play a leadership
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the North Central: Towards a National Synthesis for Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

As the National Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) develops a strategic effort around fire science, there is a critical need to develop a national-scale synthesis effort that identifies key regional CASC activities previously conducted, as well as major science gaps that may be addressed by a coordinated CASC network approach. The North Central CASC postdoctoral fellow will play a leadership
Learn More
link
Las Conchas Fire

Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize th
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate

Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize th
Learn More
link
Controlled burn at Hart Mountain National Wildlife Refuge.

Development of an Early Warning System to Identify Changing Prescribed Burn Opportunities Across Southeast US Fire-Adapted Habitats

Frequent, low-intensity wildfires were once widespread across the Southeast US, which led to a reduction in unchecked vegetation growth that provided fuel for high-intensity fires. Both intentional and unintentional fire suppression and land-use changes have reduced many of these wildfires and the fire-adapted habitats in the region over time. This loss of frequent low-intensity wildfires on the l
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Development of an Early Warning System to Identify Changing Prescribed Burn Opportunities Across Southeast US Fire-Adapted Habitats

Frequent, low-intensity wildfires were once widespread across the Southeast US, which led to a reduction in unchecked vegetation growth that provided fuel for high-intensity fires. Both intentional and unintentional fire suppression and land-use changes have reduced many of these wildfires and the fire-adapted habitats in the region over time. This loss of frequent low-intensity wildfires on the l
Learn More

Through the CAP program, fellows publish research from their individual regional projects, as well as their combined national synthesis project. Check out their publications below!

National Synthesis Project
A fire-use decision model to improve the United States’ wildfire management and support climate change adaptation

A fire-use decision model to improve the United States’ wildfire management and support climate change adaptation

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