CASC Extreme Weather Highlights

Major Research Themes 

• Impacts of extreme weather on fish and wildlife 
• Modeling future rainfall/weather patterns 
• Identifying vulnerabilities of ecosystems and communities (esp. native communities) to extreme weather events 
• Identifying drivers of extreme events 

Project Highlights 

Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska

Issue: In Alaska, extreme climate events such as very warm days, very cold days, and intense storms can have severe consequences, from damaging infrastructure to disrupting the tourism economy.  

CASC Science: In this project, supported by the Alaska CASC, researchers seek to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme events. They found that not all extreme weather is created equal; some extreme climate events, such as very warm summer days, routinely occur under expected conditions, while others, such as cold summer days, can occur under a much wider range of circulation patterns.  

Applications: By characterizing the variability in the drivers of extreme events in Alaska, the researchers hope to ultimately improve the ability of forecasters to predict the occurrence of these events in the future. 

Slowing the Flow for Climate Resilience: Reducing Vulnerability to Extreme Flood and Drought Events

Issue: Climate change is expected to cause higher air temperatures, less rainfall, and more frequent extreme rain- and snowfall events in the northeastern US, likely exposing the region to more extreme floods and droughts.  

CASC Science: This project, supported by the Northeast CASC, assessed the utility of “slow the flow” watershed management approaches for the region. This strategy uses natural ecosystems to buffer water resources and infrastructure from extreme weather events, for example by conserving wetlands to prevent coastal erosion.  

Applications: Workshops with managers and scientists revealed strong interest among conservation and management professionals in using nature-based solutions to extreme events. The research team also applied computer models to two case studies in the Northeast, revealing that natural infrastructure can significantly reduce floods while providing multiple ecological benefits.  

Structured Decision-Making as a Tool for Coastal Restoration: A Case Study on Ship Island, Mississippi

Issue: Barrier islands protect mainland areas from storm surges but can erode over time and require restoration.  

CASC Science: In a project supported by the Southeast CASC, researchers used the restoration of the barrier island Ship Island, located off the coast of Mississippi, as a case study for applying structured decision-making to coastal restoration management decisions. Researchers created a decision-making framework to inform an effort by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to use approximately 22 million cubic yards of sand to close the gap between East and West Ship Islands, restoring the island’s physical integrity and creating habitat for important species such as sea turtles, shorebirds, and Gulf sturgeon.  

Application: This framework, which incorporated stakeholder and scientist inputs, computational models, and qualitative analyses, ultimately contributed to the successful restoration of Ship Island in 2020, the second largest restoration project in the history of the National Park Service. The project also generated a general decision framework and process that can be expanded and adapted for future restoration projects. 

Product Highlights 

Identifying Tribal Vulnerabilities and Supporting Planning for Extreme Weather Events 

With support from the South Central CASC, the University of Oklahoma (OU) hosted a workshop in 2014 for tribal environmental professionals on planning for extreme weather events. The workshop was attended by tribal environmental professionals representing at least five tribes, as well as a host of interdisciplinary scholars and students from OU who are engaged in climate change research. The workshop helped secure funding from the Bureau of Indian Affairs for OU to work with a select group of tribal partners to develop a deeper understanding of climate change impacts on tribal lands. Partners include the Citizen Potawatomie Nation, Kaw Nation, Otoe-Missouria Tribe, Fort Sill Apache Nation, and the Wichita and Affiliated Tribes. 

High Resolution Rainfall Change Downscaled Climate Data for Hawai'ian Islands

In a project supported by the Pacific Islands CASC, scientists used statistical downscaling to generate high-resolution maps showing seasonal rainfall change projections for Hawaiʻi over the 21st century. These projections suggest that Hawaiʻi’s climate will become drier overall in the second half of the century, but this effect will vary considerably across the islands and by season. The researchers hope that the maps and findings produced by this project can be used by resource managers for adaptation and water management planning or by other researchers as a foundation for further ecological research on the islands. 

Understanding Future Extreme Water Events in the Pacific Northwest and Related Uncertainties to Inform Assessments of Vulnerability

Understanding uncertainty in climate projections, in particular for extreme events, is a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. In this project, supported by the Northwest CASC, researchers developed a set of downscaled projections across the western U.S. that feed into a comprehensive data archive that accounts for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These data sets can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest region.  

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