# Extreme Weather

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, blizzards, and floods can devastate human and ecological communities and fundamentally shift dynamics in the region. The CASC network produces knowledge, data, and tools to understand and predict extreme weather events and to help develop strategies for protecting communities and ecosystems.

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#### The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest

The Midwest has experienced some of the costliest flooding events in U.S. history, including many billions of dollars during the past decade alone. The Midwest’s susceptibility to flooding has been exacerbated by a long-term increase in total precipitation and extreme rainfalls, with the 2010s being the region’s wettest decade on record Climate models strongly indicate that these recent trends w

#### The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest

The Midwest has experienced some of the costliest flooding events in U.S. history, including many billions of dollars during the past decade alone. The Midwest’s susceptibility to flooding has been exacerbated by a long-term increase in total precipitation and extreme rainfalls, with the 2010s being the region’s wettest decade on record Climate models strongly indicate that these recent trends w

#### Understanding Extreme Wildfire Events to Manage for Fire-Resistant and Resilient Landscapes

Increasing wildfire activity in the western US poses profound risks for human communities and ecological systems. Recent fire years are characterized not only by expanding area burned but also explosive fire growth. In 2020, several fires grew by >100,000 acres within a 24-hour period. Extreme single-day fire spread events such as these are poorly understood but disproportionately responsible for

#### Understanding Extreme Wildfire Events to Manage for Fire-Resistant and Resilient Landscapes

Increasing wildfire activity in the western US poses profound risks for human communities and ecological systems. Recent fire years are characterized not only by expanding area burned but also explosive fire growth. In 2020, several fires grew by >100,000 acres within a 24-hour period. Extreme single-day fire spread events such as these are poorly understood but disproportionately responsible for

#### Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska

Coastal flooding and erosion are increasingly threatening infrastructure and public safety in Alaska Native communities. While many scientists and projects are attentive to the problem, there are still a limited number of tools that assess vulnerability to coastal flood hazards. Few of the available tools use modeling approaches that can be customized to specific community information needs in a m

#### Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska

Coastal flooding and erosion are increasingly threatening infrastructure and public safety in Alaska Native communities. While many scientists and projects are attentive to the problem, there are still a limited number of tools that assess vulnerability to coastal flood hazards. Few of the available tools use modeling approaches that can be customized to specific community information needs in a m

#### Evaluating how snow avalanches impact mountain goat populations in southeast Alaska

Snow avalanches have a wide variety of effects on mountain environments, with both beneficial and harmful outcomes for wildlife. Avalanches can benefit wildlife by creating open chutes in which to graze but can also be a direct source of mortality when animals are buried by avalanche debris. Mountain goats, which inhabit rugged and steep terrain, are at an increased risk of exposure to avalanches.

#### Evaluating how snow avalanches impact mountain goat populations in southeast Alaska

Snow avalanches have a wide variety of effects on mountain environments, with both beneficial and harmful outcomes for wildlife. Avalanches can benefit wildlife by creating open chutes in which to graze but can also be a direct source of mortality when animals are buried by avalanche debris. Mountain goats, which inhabit rugged and steep terrain, are at an increased risk of exposure to avalanches.

#### Characterizing Climate-Driven Changes to Flood Events and Floodplain Forests in the Upper Mississippi River to Inform Management

Floodplain forests along the Upper Mississippi River are heavily managed but understudied systems that provide critical ecosystem services, including habitat for endangered species. Impacts of a changing climate, such as warmer winters and wetter summers with extreme precipitation events, are already influencing hydrologic patterns in these ecosystems, including altering the duration, frequency, a

#### Characterizing Climate-Driven Changes to Flood Events and Floodplain Forests in the Upper Mississippi River to Inform Management

Floodplain forests along the Upper Mississippi River are heavily managed but understudied systems that provide critical ecosystem services, including habitat for endangered species. Impacts of a changing climate, such as warmer winters and wetter summers with extreme precipitation events, are already influencing hydrologic patterns in these ecosystems, including altering the duration, frequency, a

#### Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures

The observed rate of warming in many National Park Service (NPS) lands in Alaska has accelerated soil subsidence and increased landslide frequency, thereby threatening public access, subsistence activities and infrastructure in NPS regions. Areas most affected by this change are along the Denali Park Road, the proposed Ambler Road through Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the McC

#### Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures

The observed rate of warming in many National Park Service (NPS) lands in Alaska has accelerated soil subsidence and increased landslide frequency, thereby threatening public access, subsistence activities and infrastructure in NPS regions. Areas most affected by this change are along the Denali Park Road, the proposed Ambler Road through Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the McC

#### Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.

Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during the

#### Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S.

Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during the

#### Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska

Changing climate in the “Ridge-to-Reef" (R2R) and “Icefield-to-Ocean" (I2O) ecosystems of Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska is expected to influence freshwater resources, extreme precipitation events, intensity of storms, and drought. Changes in these regions will not be uniform, rather they will depend on elevation and watershed location due to their steep-gradient terrains. A better understanding of

#### Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska

Changing climate in the “Ridge-to-Reef" (R2R) and “Icefield-to-Ocean" (I2O) ecosystems of Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska is expected to influence freshwater resources, extreme precipitation events, intensity of storms, and drought. Changes in these regions will not be uniform, rather they will depend on elevation and watershed location due to their steep-gradient terrains. A better understanding of

#### A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests

California is a world biodiversity hotspot, and also home to hundreds of sensitive, threatened, and endangered species. One of the most vulnerable ecosystems in California is the “sky island” montane forests of southern California, forests of conifers and hardwoods located only in high-elevation mountain regions. Montane forests serve many important ecosystem functions, including protecting the up...

#### A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests

California is a world biodiversity hotspot, and also home to hundreds of sensitive, threatened, and endangered species. One of the most vulnerable ecosystems in California is the “sky island” montane forests of southern California, forests of conifers and hardwoods located only in high-elevation mountain regions. Montane forests serve many important ecosystem functions, including protecting the up...

#### A Climate-Informed Adaptation and Post-Fire Strategy for the Southwestern Region

The Southwest is projected to face significant climate challenges in coming decades; and many of these stresses have already begun. In recent years, multiple climate assessments have been developed for the Southwest that corroborate forecasts of remarkable change to vegetation pattern and the vulnerability of regional ecosystems and suggest that measurable change is already ongoing. Disturbance ev

#### A Climate-Informed Adaptation and Post-Fire Strategy for the Southwestern Region

The Southwest is projected to face significant climate challenges in coming decades; and many of these stresses have already begun. In recent years, multiple climate assessments have been developed for the Southwest that corroborate forecasts of remarkable change to vegetation pattern and the vulnerability of regional ecosystems and suggest that measurable change is already ongoing. Disturbance ev