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South Central

The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (SC CASC) provides decision-makers with the science, tools, and information they need to address the impacts of climate variability and change. They support multi-institutional and stakeholder-driven approaches to assessing the impacts of climate change, with a research focus on ecosystems, water, drought, wildfires, and climate projections.

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Testing Downscaled Climate Projections: Is Past Performance an Indicator of Future Accuracy?

When climate models are developed, researchers test how well they replicate the climate system by using them to model past climate. Ideally, the model output will match the climate conditions that were actually recorded in the past, indicating that the model correctly characterizes how the climate system works and can be used to reliably project future conditions. However, this approach...
Testing Downscaled Climate Projections: Is Past Performance an Indicator of Future Accuracy?

Testing Downscaled Climate Projections: Is Past Performance an Indicator of Future Accuracy?

When climate models are developed, researchers test how well they replicate the climate system by using them to model past climate. Ideally, the model output will match the climate conditions that were actually recorded in the past, indicating that the model correctly characterizes how the climate system works and can be used to reliably project future conditions. However, this approach assumes
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Understanding the Nexus between Climate, Streamflow, Water Quality, and Ecology in the Arkansas-Red River Basin

Currently, maintaining appropriate flows to support biological integrity is difficult for larger riverine ecosystems. Climate change, through increased temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased rainfall intensity, is expected to reduce water availability and exacerbate the maintenance of ecological flows in the Arkansas-Red River basin. Understanding the nexus among climate change...
Understanding the Nexus between Climate, Streamflow, Water Quality, and Ecology in the Arkansas-Red River Basin

Understanding the Nexus between Climate, Streamflow, Water Quality, and Ecology in the Arkansas-Red River Basin

Currently, maintaining appropriate flows to support biological integrity is difficult for larger riverine ecosystems. Climate change, through increased temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased rainfall intensity, is expected to reduce water availability and exacerbate the maintenance of ecological flows in the Arkansas-Red River basin. Understanding the nexus among climate change effects on
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Analyzing and Communicating the Ability of Data and Models to Simulate Streamflow and Answer Resource Management Questions

To date, hydrological and ecological models have been developed independently from each other, making their application particularly challenging for interdisciplinary studies. The objective of this project was to synthesize and evaluate prevailing hydrological and ecological models in the South-Central U.S., particularly the southern Great Plains region. This analysis aimed to identify...
Analyzing and Communicating the Ability of Data and Models to Simulate Streamflow and Answer Resource Management Questions

Analyzing and Communicating the Ability of Data and Models to Simulate Streamflow and Answer Resource Management Questions

To date, hydrological and ecological models have been developed independently from each other, making their application particularly challenging for interdisciplinary studies. The objective of this project was to synthesize and evaluate prevailing hydrological and ecological models in the South-Central U.S., particularly the southern Great Plains region. This analysis aimed to identify the data
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Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of America

Submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities are highly productive ecosystems that provide significant ecological benefits to coastal areas, including essential calories for wintering waterfowl. However, the potential effects of sea-level rise is posing new questions about the future availability of SAV for waterfowl and other coastal wildlife. Of primary concern is the fact that...
Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of America

Assessing the Potential Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Submersed Aquatic Vegetation and Waterfowl in the Northern Gulf of America

Submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) communities are highly productive ecosystems that provide significant ecological benefits to coastal areas, including essential calories for wintering waterfowl. However, the potential effects of sea-level rise is posing new questions about the future availability of SAV for waterfowl and other coastal wildlife. Of primary concern is the fact that rising seas
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Building Capacity within the CSC Network to Effectively Deliver and Communicate Science to Resource Managers and Planners

A limited amount of valid scientific information about global climate change and its detrimental impacts has reached the public and exerted a positive impact on the public policy process or future planning for adaptation and mitigation. This project was designed to address this limitation by bringing together expertise in the social and communication sciences from targeted academic...
Building Capacity within the CSC Network to Effectively Deliver and Communicate Science to Resource Managers and Planners

Building Capacity within the CSC Network to Effectively Deliver and Communicate Science to Resource Managers and Planners

A limited amount of valid scientific information about global climate change and its detrimental impacts has reached the public and exerted a positive impact on the public policy process or future planning for adaptation and mitigation. This project was designed to address this limitation by bringing together expertise in the social and communication sciences from targeted academic institutions
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Comparing and Evaluating Different Models to Simulate Current and Future Temperature and Precipitation

Regional assessments of the impacts of climate change on both human systems and the natural environment require high-resolution projections to see the effects of global-scale change on the local environment. This project sought to address a critical and generally overlooked assumption inherent to these projections of regional, multi-decadal climate change: that the statistical...
Comparing and Evaluating Different Models to Simulate Current and Future Temperature and Precipitation

Comparing and Evaluating Different Models to Simulate Current and Future Temperature and Precipitation

Regional assessments of the impacts of climate change on both human systems and the natural environment require high-resolution projections to see the effects of global-scale change on the local environment. This project sought to address a critical and generally overlooked assumption inherent to these projections of regional, multi-decadal climate change: that the statistical relationship between
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Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Karst Hydrology and Species Vulnerability

Karst aquifers—formed when the movement of water dissolves bedrock—are critical groundwater resources in North America. Water moving through these aquifers carves out magnificent caves, sinkholes, and other formations. These formations are home to high concentrations of rare and endangered species, but the hydrological conditions that support these species can change rapidly. Managing...
Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Karst Hydrology and Species Vulnerability

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Extremes on Karst Hydrology and Species Vulnerability

Karst aquifers—formed when the movement of water dissolves bedrock—are critical groundwater resources in North America. Water moving through these aquifers carves out magnificent caves, sinkholes, and other formations. These formations are home to high concentrations of rare and endangered species, but the hydrological conditions that support these species can change rapidly. Managing these
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Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S.

Tribal communities are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their reliance on the natural environment to sustain traditional activities and their limited resources to respond to climate change impacts. At the same time, tribes have valuable traditional knowledge that can aid regional efforts to address climate change. There were two overarching goals of this...
Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S.

Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S.

Tribal communities are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their reliance on the natural environment to sustain traditional activities and their limited resources to respond to climate change impacts. At the same time, tribes have valuable traditional knowledge that can aid regional efforts to address climate change. There were two overarching goals of this project
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Mapping Fresh, Intermediate, Brackish and Saline Marshes in the North Central Gulf of America Coast to Inform Future Projections

Spatial data depicting marsh types (e.g. fresh, intermediate, brackish and saline) for the north-central Gulf of America coast are inconsistent across the region, limiting the ability of conservation planners to model the current and future capacity of the coast to sustain priority species. The goal of this study was to (1) update the resolution of coastal Texas vegetation data to match...
Mapping Fresh, Intermediate, Brackish and Saline Marshes in the North Central Gulf of America Coast to Inform Future Projections

Mapping Fresh, Intermediate, Brackish and Saline Marshes in the North Central Gulf of America Coast to Inform Future Projections

Spatial data depicting marsh types (e.g. fresh, intermediate, brackish and saline) for the north-central Gulf of America coast are inconsistent across the region, limiting the ability of conservation planners to model the current and future capacity of the coast to sustain priority species. The goal of this study was to (1) update the resolution of coastal Texas vegetation data to match that of
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Terrestrial Connectivity Across the South Central United States: Implications for the Sustainability of Wildlife Populations and Communities

Habitat fragmentation, modification, and loss have been implicated in the decline of many species, including more than 85% of those considered threatened or endangered. Therefore, connectivity, or the ability of organisms to move among habitat patches, is a critical component of landscape health. In addition to influencing the sustainability of wildlife populations and communities...
Terrestrial Connectivity Across the South Central United States: Implications for the Sustainability of Wildlife Populations and Communities

Terrestrial Connectivity Across the South Central United States: Implications for the Sustainability of Wildlife Populations and Communities

Habitat fragmentation, modification, and loss have been implicated in the decline of many species, including more than 85% of those considered threatened or endangered. Therefore, connectivity, or the ability of organisms to move among habitat patches, is a critical component of landscape health. In addition to influencing the sustainability of wildlife populations and communities, connectivity
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