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Publications

Since its inception in 2008, CASC-funded research projects have generated over 2,000 publications in academic journals across the sciences, including articles in high-impact journals such as Science and Nature. Browse a selection of publications from CASC-funded projects below. For a complete list of our scientific projects, publications, and data, explore our Project Explorer database.

Filter Total Items: 588

Letter from leadership Letter from leadership

No abstract available.
Authors
Aaron Lien, Stephanie Anne McAfee

Creating usable science: A Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center study Creating usable science: A Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center study

The southwestern United States consists of diverse ecosystems that are experiencing increasing pressures from rising temperatures, increasing aridity, and sea level rise. To prepare this region for future uncertainty, there is a need for strong partnerships among researchers and societal partners. The Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC) acts to foster engaged...
Authors
Kinzie Cherrel Bailey, Jia Hu, Alison M. Meadow, Stephanie Anne McAfee, Alexandder Gershunov, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, Daniel Cayan, Beth Rose MIddleton Manning, Elizabeth Fard, Geln MacDonald, Gregg M. Garfin, Michelle Baker, Nancy Huntly, Richard F. Ambroase

Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications

Freshwater species are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet our ability to assess their vulnerability remains incomplete. Typically, climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) evaluate three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a species to adjust to changing conditions, provides critical insight into how...
Authors
Holly Susan Embke, Karen M Alofs, David Bunnell, Christy M. Caudill, Cindy Chu, Corey Garland Dunn, Kaelyn Fogelman, Spencer T. Gardner, Tomas O Hook, Scott A. Jackson, Matthew Keefer, Scott T Koenigbauer, Olivia E. LeDee, Stuart A. Ludsin, Abigail Lynch, Bonnie Myers, Elizabeth A. Nyboer, Travis Seaborn, Cory Suski, Lindsey Thurman, Annika W. Walters, Jacob Thomas Westhoff

Alternative future vegetation pathways reveal potential transformations of western US ecosystems Alternative future vegetation pathways reveal potential transformations of western US ecosystems

Managing ecosystems in an era of rapid change is inherently challenging not only because of uncertainty in future climate but also due to diverse responses of ecosystems to climate. Projections of ecological transformation alongside information about plausible vegetation trajectories can help land managers explore divergent scenarios and consider how modeled outcomes match their...
Authors
Tyler J. Hoecker, Kimberley T. Davis, Caitlin E. Littlefield, Jeffrey C Chandler, Sean A. Parks, Andy John Maguire, Kerry Kemp, Svetlana Yegorova, Solomon Dobrowski

Multireservoir allocation framework considering societal and ecological needs in a time-frequency domain Multireservoir allocation framework considering societal and ecological needs in a time-frequency domain

Existing reservoir management frameworks traditionally consider historical (predam) flow conditions to deliver environmental flows. Such frameworks may not be feasible because current demand and/or climate could be different from predam conditions. Hence, we developed a multireservoir framework that explicitly considers both human water demands and environmental flow requirements to...
Authors
Dol Raj Chalise, Lucas Ford, Kumar Mahinthakumar, Ranji Ranjithan, Mitchell J. Eaton, A. Sankarasubramanian

Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north

As environmental conditions change, land managers are increasingly concerned about the potential for new aquatic invasive species to move into their jurisdictions. Because managers may have limited resources, detecting invasive species early is important as prevention is more effective and less costly than ongoing mitigation of established populations. Tools built to assist early...
Authors
Catherine S. Jarnevich, Peder Engelstad, Shelby K. LeClare, Richard D. Inman, Ian A. Pfingsten, Wesley M. Daniel

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel (Falco sparverius, hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s)...
Authors
Paige E. Howell, Abigail Jean Lawson, Davis Kristin P., Guthrie S. Zimmerman, Orin J. Robinson, Matthew A. Boggie, Mitchell J. Eaton, Fitsum Abadi, Jessi L. Brown, Julie A. Heath, John A. Smallwood, Karen Steenhof, Ted Swem, Brian W. Rolek, Christopher J.W. McClure, Jean-Francois Therrien, Karl E. Miller, Brian A. Milsap

Action in uncertainty: Data-driven decisions that acknowledge emotional responses and transcendental connections Action in uncertainty: Data-driven decisions that acknowledge emotional responses and transcendental connections

The increasing uncertainty with global change often stifles action and results in calls for more data before moving beyond status quo environmental decisions (Mahapatra & Ratha 2017; Ripple et al. 2017; Montefalcone et al. 2025). Advancing science and collecting more data is crucial; however, science alone (i.e., “western” or “positivist” science, as described in Fuller, 2001; Reid et al...
Authors
Nicole K. Ward, Kelly G. Guilbeau, Amanda L. Sesser, Abigail J. Lynch

Background, methods, goals, challenges, opportunities, and information needs Background, methods, goals, challenges, opportunities, and information needs

Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems is crucial for successful grasslands management in the future. In 2020, the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers (that is, those individuals who develop grassland management plans, implement those plans on the...

Ten new insights in climate science 2025 Ten new insights in climate science 2025

Interdisciplinary understanding is vital for delivering sound climate policy advice. However, navigating the ever-growing and increasingly diverse scholarly literature on climate change is challenging for any individual researcher. This annual synthesis highlights and explains recent advances across a variety of fields of climate change research. This year, the 10 insights focus on: (1)...
Authors
Daniel Ospina, Paula Mirazo, Richard P. Allan, Smriti Basnett, Ana Bastos, Nishan Bhattarai, Wendy Broadgate, Derik J. Broekhoff, Mercedes Bustamante, Deliang Chen, Yeonju Choi, Peter Cox, Luiz A. Domeignoz-Horta, Krislie Ebi, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Helge F. Goessling, Nicolas Gruber, Qingyou He, Sophie R. Hebden, Nadja Hedrich, Adrian Heilemann, Marina Hirota, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gustaf Hugelius, Santiago Izquierdo-Tort, Sirkku Juhola, Fumiko Kasuga, Piyu Ke, Douglas I. Kelley, Şiir Kilkiș, Maximilian Kotz, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, William F. Lamb, Shih-Yu Lee, Junguo Liu, Cara N. Maesano, Maria A. Martin, Guilherme G. Mazzochini, Christopher J. Merchant, Akira S. Mori, Jennifer Morris, Åsa Persson, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Benedict S. Probst, Justine Ramage, Estelle Razanatsoa, Aaron Redman, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, Sophie Ruehr, Sadie J. Ryan, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Peter Schlosser, William A. Scott, Jan C. Semenza, Hansjörg Seybold, Drew T. Shindell, Giles B. Sioen, Kathryn E. Smith, Youba Sokona, Annika H. Stechemesser, Thomas F. Stocker, Sophie H.L. Su, Djiby Thiam, Gregory Trencher, Anna-Maria Virkkala, Lila Warszawski, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Henry Wu, Shupeng Zhu

Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations Integrating climate and anthropogenic dynamics can inform multifaceted management for declining mule deer populations

Wildlife and their habitats face profound challenges from climate and landscape-scale changes that extend beyond the influence and time horizon of most biologists and land managers. In this changing environment, long-term datasets can enhance assessments of how demographic trends respond to interactions among local (e.g., habitat restoration decisions) and broad extent drivers, including...
Authors
Teagan A. Hayes, Aaron N. Johnston, L. Embere Hall, Jill E. Randall, Matthew J. Kauffman, Christopher Keefe, Kevin Monteith, Tabitha A. Graves
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