More than a third of the United States population lives in counties directly on the shoreline, making them vulnerable to hazards associated with changing sea level and storm surges associated with hurricanes and severe storms. The geologic record contains many examples of past intervals of warm climate and high sea level. "Geological Investigation of the Neogene" is examining proxy records of ocean conditions (temperature, salinity, upwelling) and the composition and distribution of marine fossil assemblages during these periods to improve understanding of potential rates, magnitudes, and impacts of change.
Statement of Problem: Our group reconstructs marine environments during past warm intervals using a combination of paleoclimate proxies (e.g. faunal analysis, biomarkers, stratigraphy) from well-dated sediment cores and outcrops. We also compare our paleo reconstructions with those generated by numerical ecosystem and climate models.
Why this Research is Important: We explore the environmental and economic impacts on coastal population centers under different rates and magnitudes of environmental change, using past warm climates as guides. Past warm periods provide a baseline for the impact of changes that can be used to prepare for the effects of the modern warming trend. Large segments of the U.S. population live in coastal communities which rely heavily on local fisheries, agriculture, tourism and national defense installations. This research provides valuable data to inform adaptation strategies related to the ecological health of the marine environment and the threat to infrastructure.
Objective(s): The research focuses on sites within the Atlantic Coastal Plain that preserve evidence from a series of past warm intervals. By documenting patterns and impacts of change during two warm intervals, the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (~16 Ma) and the mid-Piacenzian warm period (~3.2 Ma), the project aims to provide examples of past ecologic, environmental, and physical changes to coastal settings. These examples help anticipate the physical and economic impacts of sea surface warming and changing sea level on modern coasts and communities. In addition, through an iterative process, our results can be used to increase confidence in model projections of future change which are of increasing importance to policy makers.
Methods: We reconstruct past conditions using a variety of techniques. Distributions and abundances of different fossil assemblages can be statistically calibrated to generate estimates of temperature, salinity, productivity and seasonality. Often, the presence or morphological characteristics of individual species can be used to indicate specific environmental conditions. In addition, we analyze organic compounds, called biomarkers, to obtain independent estimates of ocean surface temperature and productivity. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon, found in the calcium carbonate covering of some microfossils can be used to better understand the salinity and global ice volume at the time the organism was alive. These and other types of analyses all require a sound, high resolution temporal framework constructed using calibrated first and last appearances in the fossil record of key species as well as the record of paleomagnetic reversals and select radiometric dates.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Geological Investigations of the Neogene Project
Sea Level and Storm Hazards: Past and Present
Natural Drought and Flood Histories from Lacustrine Archives
Land-Sea Linkages in the Arctic
Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM4)
Eocene Hyperthermals Project
Below are publications associated with this project.
The planktonic foraminiferal response to the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum on the Atlantic coastal plain
Evidence for shelf acidification during the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
PRISM marine sites—The history of PRISM sea surface temperature estimation
Sea surface temperature estimates for the mid-Piacenzian Indian Ocean—Ocean Drilling Program sites 709, 716, 722, 754, 757, 758, and 763
Shallow marine response to global climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Salisbury Embayment, USA
Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future
Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation
The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift
Latitudinal species diversity gradient of marine zooplankton for the last three million years
Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models
Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)
Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information - Paleoceanography
Explore paleoceanographic data.
- Overview
More than a third of the United States population lives in counties directly on the shoreline, making them vulnerable to hazards associated with changing sea level and storm surges associated with hurricanes and severe storms. The geologic record contains many examples of past intervals of warm climate and high sea level. "Geological Investigation of the Neogene" is examining proxy records of ocean conditions (temperature, salinity, upwelling) and the composition and distribution of marine fossil assemblages during these periods to improve understanding of potential rates, magnitudes, and impacts of change.
Photo shows the Calvert Formation (created during Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO)) taken at Plum Point on the Chesapeake Bay, in the late afternoon of October 22, 2018. Statement of Problem: Our group reconstructs marine environments during past warm intervals using a combination of paleoclimate proxies (e.g. faunal analysis, biomarkers, stratigraphy) from well-dated sediment cores and outcrops. We also compare our paleo reconstructions with those generated by numerical ecosystem and climate models.
Why this Research is Important: We explore the environmental and economic impacts on coastal population centers under different rates and magnitudes of environmental change, using past warm climates as guides. Past warm periods provide a baseline for the impact of changes that can be used to prepare for the effects of the modern warming trend. Large segments of the U.S. population live in coastal communities which rely heavily on local fisheries, agriculture, tourism and national defense installations. This research provides valuable data to inform adaptation strategies related to the ecological health of the marine environment and the threat to infrastructure.
Objective(s): The research focuses on sites within the Atlantic Coastal Plain that preserve evidence from a series of past warm intervals. By documenting patterns and impacts of change during two warm intervals, the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (~16 Ma) and the mid-Piacenzian warm period (~3.2 Ma), the project aims to provide examples of past ecologic, environmental, and physical changes to coastal settings. These examples help anticipate the physical and economic impacts of sea surface warming and changing sea level on modern coasts and communities. In addition, through an iterative process, our results can be used to increase confidence in model projections of future change which are of increasing importance to policy makers.
Photo shows the fossil-rich sediments of the mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP) that document the rapid warming and sea level rise between about 3.30 and 3.25 million years agao. The hammer is at the conformable boundary between the Rushmere (below) and Morgarts Beach (above) Members of the Yorktown Formation. Methods: We reconstruct past conditions using a variety of techniques. Distributions and abundances of different fossil assemblages can be statistically calibrated to generate estimates of temperature, salinity, productivity and seasonality. Often, the presence or morphological characteristics of individual species can be used to indicate specific environmental conditions. In addition, we analyze organic compounds, called biomarkers, to obtain independent estimates of ocean surface temperature and productivity. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon, found in the calcium carbonate covering of some microfossils can be used to better understand the salinity and global ice volume at the time the organism was alive. These and other types of analyses all require a sound, high resolution temporal framework constructed using calibrated first and last appearances in the fossil record of key species as well as the record of paleomagnetic reversals and select radiometric dates.
Photo shows USGS geologists obtaining microfossil and biomarker samples from the Calvert Formation at Scientists Cliffs. - Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Geological Investigations of the Neogene Project
Geological Investigations of the Neogene explores past warmer-than-modern climates of the mid-Miocene (about 14-17 million years ago) and Piacenzian (about 3 million years ago) to assess the potential environmental and economic impacts to population centers along the US Atlantic coast under different rates and magnitudes of changes related to warmer temperatures. Specifically, we look at past...Sea Level and Storm Hazards: Past and Present
Sea level and Storm Hazards: Past and Present is a multidisciplinary study of past changes in sea level. Prehistoric shorelines can be used as a baseline for current and future sea level changes under warmer-than-present climate. Emphasis is placed on looking at sea levels during warm periods of the last 500,000 years as well as how base level changes increase the risk of coastal inundation during...Natural Drought and Flood Histories from Lacustrine Archives
Previous work performed as part of the USGS Holocene Synthesis project illuminated complex centennial-scale patterns of drought and wetter-than-average conditions across the North American continent interior during the past two millennia, where paleorecord data coverage is sparse. In order to explain the patterns of naturally-occurring drought, floods, and storms for the past, identified by the...Land-Sea Linkages in the Arctic
The Arctic is undergoing historically unprecedented changes in weather, sea ice, temperature and ecosystems. These changes have led to greater coastal erosion, greater export of freshwater, and changes to marine and terrestrial ecosystems, habitats, and productivity, among other trends. Meanwhile, many believe the Arctic “amplifies” large climate changes during both warm periods and ice ages and...Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM4)
PRISM will help distinguish the USGS as a world leader in paleoclimate research, data generation and delivery for use in addressing the modern world's climate-related needs. We will be recognized for the passion of our researchers and partners in providing quality, innovative paleoclimate interpretation and data analysis to the science (climate change) community and to the public we serve.Eocene Hyperthermals Project
Sudden and extreme global warming events of the past are known as hyperthermals. The most intensely studied of these is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) that occurred about 56 million years ago. During the PETM, global temperatures rose by ~5°C, ocean acidification was widespread, floral and faunal communities were severely disrupted, and changing oceanic circulation and a disrupted... - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 14The planktonic foraminiferal response to the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum on the Atlantic coastal plain
Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in two cores from Maryland and New Jersey show evidence for significant changes in surface ocean habitats on the continental shelf during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). At both sites, significant assemblage shifts occur immediately before the onset of the event. These changes include the appearance of abundant triserial/biserial species as well asAuthorsCaitlin M. Livsey, Tali Babila, Marci M. Robinson, Timothy J. BralowerEvidence for shelf acidification during the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
A transect of paleoshelf cores from Maryland and New Jersey contains a ~0.19 m to 1.61 m thick interval with reduced percentages of carbonate during the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Outer paleoshelf cores are barren of nannofossils and correspond to two minor disconformities. Middle paleoshelf cores contain a mixture of samples devoid of nannofossils and those with rareAuthorsTimothy J. Bralower, Lee R. Kump, Marci M. Robinson, Jean Self-Trail, Shelby L. Lyons, Tali Babila, Edward Ballaron, Katherine H. Freeman, Elizabeth A. Hajek, William Rush, James C. ZachosPRISM marine sites—The history of PRISM sea surface temperature estimation
For more than three decades, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project has compiled paleoenvironmental data with the goal of reconstructing global conditions during the warm interval in the middle of the Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene Epoch (about 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago). Because this is the most recent interval of time in whichAuthorsMarci M. Robinson, Harry J. Dowsett, Kevin M. Foley, Christina R. RiesselmanSea surface temperature estimates for the mid-Piacenzian Indian Ocean—Ocean Drilling Program sites 709, 716, 722, 754, 757, 758, and 763
Despite the wealth of global paleoclimate data available for the warm period in the middle of the Piacenzian Stage of the Pliocene Epoch (about 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago [Ma]; Dowsett and others, 2013, and references therein), the Indian Ocean has remained a region of sparse geographic coverage in terms of microfossil analysis. In an effort to characterize the surface Indian Ocean during this iAuthorsMarci M. Robinson, Harry J. Dowsett, Danielle K. StollShallow marine response to global climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Salisbury Embayment, USA
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of extreme warmth that caused disruption of marine and terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale. Here we examine the sediments, flora, and fauna from an expanded section at Mattawoman Creek-Billingsley Road (MCBR) in Maryland and explore the impact of warming at a nearshore shallow marine (30–100 m water depth) site in the Salisbury EmbayAuthorsJean Self-Trail, Marci M. Robinson, Timothy J. Bralower, Jocelyn A. Sessa, Elizabeth A. Hajek, Lee R. Kump, Sheila M. Trampush, Debra A. Willard, Lucy E. Edwards, David S. Powars, Gregory A. WandlessEmulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future
Multi-millennial transient simulations of climate changes have a range of important applications, such as for investigating key geologic events and transitions for which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy data are available, or for projecting the long-term impacts of future climate evolution on the performance of geological repositories for the disposal of radioactive wastes. However, due tAuthorsNatalie S. Lord, Michel Crucifix, Daniel J. Lunt, Mike C. Thorne, Nabila Bounceur, Harry J. Dowsett, Charlotte L. O'Brien, A. RidgwellSensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation
General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic seAuthorsFergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Steven J. PickeringThe PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift
Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable cAuthorsHarry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Danielle K. Stoll, Kevin M. Foley, Andrew L. A. Johnson, Mark Williams, Christina RiesselmanLatitudinal species diversity gradient of marine zooplankton for the last three million years
High tropical and low polar biodiversity is one of the most fundamental patterns characterising marine ecosystems, and the influence of temperature on such marine latitudinal diversity gradients is increasingly well documented. However, the temporal stability of quantitative relationships among diversity, latitude and temperature is largely unknown. Herein we document marine zooplankton species diAuthorsMoriaki Yasuhara, Gene Hunt, Harry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Danielle K. StollAssessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models
In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared wAuthorsHarry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Alan M. Haywood, Daniel J. Hill, Aisling M. Dolan, Danielle K. Stoll, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Mark A. Chandler, Nan A. Rosenbloom, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran J. Bragg, Daniel J. Lunt, Kevin M. Foley, Christina R. RiesselmanPliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)
The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-onAuthorsA.M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Marci M. Robinson, Danielle K. Stoll, A.M. Dolan, D.J. Lunt, B. Otto-Bliesner, M.A. ChandlerBathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production
The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3.3 to 3.0 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warmAuthorsMarci M. Robinson, P.J. Valdes, A.M. Haywood, H.J. Dowsett, D.J. Hill, S.M. Jones - Web Tools
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information - Paleoceanography
Explore paleoceanographic data.