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The Influence of Climatic, Watershed, and Water-use Changes on Extreme Low Streamflows in the United States Active

By Climate Research and Development Program December 4, 2018

Extreme low streamflows impact water availability for human systems and ecosystems. Numerous researchers have analyzed trends in low streamflows in the U.S. There is no known published work, however, on historical trends over time in the most extreme low streamflows—the flows with the largest impacts on human systems and ecosystems. The current study attempts to fill this gap. The wealth of historical U.S. Geological Survey streamflow, watershed, and water-use data across the country provides a great opportunity to better understand this critical issue.

 

Our Research: We aim to provide better understanding of the effect of historical climatic changes, human watershed changes (such as urbanization and reservoir storage), and water-use changes on extreme low flows in the United States.

Why this Research is Important: Hydrologic drought in the United States can have severe impacts on agriculture, municipal water supply, and ecosystems. It is important to know whether extreme low flows have been changing over time and why, to better inform future drought flows.

Ipswich River in Reading, Massachusetts at low water level
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
Ipswich River at extreme low streamflow in Reading, Massachusetts during September, 2005. 

Objective(s):

  1. Hydrologic drought in the United States can have severe impacts on agriculture, municipal water supply, and ecosystems. It is important to know whether extreme low flows have been changing over time and why, to better inform future drought flows.
     

  2. Identify the climatic influences and direct human influences on extreme low streamflows in the United States by examining trends and variability in extreme low streamflows for both least-disturbed and disturbed basins across the country.

  3. Investigate the influence of winter and spring groundwater recharge on summer low streamflows.

Methods: Research continues with project collaborators to select the best statistical methods for each project objective.

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 19

Northeast

The distinct seasonality of the Northeast’s climate supports a diverse natural landscape adapted to the extremes of cold, snowy winters and warm to hot, humid summers. This natural landscape provides the economic and cultural foundation for many rural communities, which are largely supported by a diverse range of agricultural, tourism, and natural resource-dependent industries (see Ch. 10: Ag & Ru
By
Climate Research and Development Program, Land Change Science Program, Office of Science Quality and Integrity

Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

Concern over the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on flooding has led to a proliferation of studies examining past flood trends. Many studies have analysed annual-maximum flow trends but few have quantified changes in major (25–100 year return period) floods, i.e. those that have the greatest societal impacts. Existing major-flood studies used a limited number of very large catchme
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Land Change Science Program, New England Water Science Center

Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England

Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitor
By
Water Resources Mission Area, New England Water Science Center

The USGS National Streamflow Information Program and the importance of preserving long-term streamgages

Long-term streamflow information is critical for use in several water-related areas that are important to humans and wildlife, including water management, computation of flood and drought flows for water infrastructure, and analysis of climate-related trends. Specific uses are many and diverse and range from informing water rights across state and international boundaries to designing dams and bri
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Groundwater and Streamflow Information Program

The importance of record length in estimating the magnitude of climatic changes: an example using 175 years of lake ice-out dates in New England

Many studies have shown that lake ice-out (break-up) dates in the Northern Hemisphere are useful indicators of late winter/early spring climate change. Trends in lake ice-out dates in New England, USA, were analyzed for 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, and 175 year periods ending in 2008. More than 100 years of ice-out data were available for 19 of the 28 lakes in this study. The magnitude of trends ove
By
Water Resources Mission Area, New England Water Science Center

Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Groundwater and Streamflow Information Program, New England Water Science Center

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic netwo
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Groundwater and Streamflow Information Program, New England Water Science Center

Relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows in New England and implications for summer streamflows

A period of much below normal streamflow in southern New England during April 2012 raised concerns that a long-term period of drought could evolve through late spring and summer, leading to potential water availability issues. To understand better the relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows, April streamflows from 31 streamflow gages in New England that drain relatively n
By
Water Resources Mission Area, New England Water Science Center

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events.
By
Water Resources Mission Area, New England Water Science Center

Streamflow changes in Alaska between the cool phase (1947–1976) and the warm phase (1977–2006) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The influence of glaciers

Streamflow data from 35 stations in and near Alaska were analyzed for changes between the cool phase (1947–1976) and the warm phase (1977–2006) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Winter, spring, and summer flow changes and maximum annual flow changes were different for glaciated basins (more than 10% glacier‐covered area) than for nonglaciated basins, showing the influence of glaciers on historic
By
Water Resources Mission Area, New England Water Science Center

Changes in the timing of winter-spring streamflows in eastern North America, 1913-2002

Changes in the timing and magnitude of winter-spring streamflows were analyzed for gaging stations in eastern North America north of 41?? north latitude during various periods through 2002. Approximately 32 percent of stations north of 44?? have significantly earlier flows over the 50, 60, 70, and 90 year periods; 64 percent have significantly earlier flows over the 80 year period; there are no st
By
Water Resources Mission Area

Changes in late-winter snowpack depth, water equivalent, and density in Maine, 1926-2004

Twenty-three snow-course sites in and near Maine, USA, with records spanning at least 50 years through to 2004 were tested for changes over time in snowpack depth, water equivalent, and density in March and April. Of the 23 sites, 18 had a significant decrease (Mann-Kendall test, p < 0??1) in snowpack depth or a significant increase in snowpack density over time. Data from four sites in the mounta
By
Water Resources Mission Area, New England Water Science Center

Below are news stories associated with this project.

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USGS contributes to the Fourth National Climate Assessment

USGS Research Hydrologist Glenn Hodgkins co-authored the Fourth National Climate Assessment’s Northeast chapter. USGS Research Geologist Erika Lentz...

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