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El Niño Coastal Hazards (2026-2027)

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By Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program October 19, 2026

Storm-driven flooding in Capitola, California March 2014

The 2026-2027 El Niño is projected to be the largest and most intense on record. Pacific storms during previous El Niño events have caused widespread coastal hazards along the California coast from flooding and erosion. The USGS is uniquely positioned to assist with coastal monitoring, data collection, science and communications with partners about these pending hazards.

The objectives of this project are to: 

  • Work with federal, state and regional partners to develop a collaborative science and monitoring plan to characterize the impacts of the 2026-2027 El Niño. 
  • Characterize the extent, patterns and trends of coastal change hazards associated with the 2026-2027 El Niño along the California coast through scientific monitoring.  
  • Provide relevant and actionable information about El Niño hazard patterns and trends to federal, state and regional partners that manage coastal lands and resources.  
  • Provide timely and relevant scientific results on the coastal hazard impacts of the 2026-2027 El Niño. 

The USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center has developed several monitoring techniques and data sets to track 2026-2027 El Niño impacts. These techniques include satellite remote sensing, aerial imaging and photogrammetry, ocean measurements of waves and currents, and beach topographic and bathymetric mapping. Coordinated scientific monitoring by the USGS of the 2026-2027 El Niño will be conducted along the broader California coast and also include site-specific studies in San Francisco, Santa Cruz and Ventura. These assessments are designed provide rapid characterizations of impacts to coastal managers across federal, state and regional governments responding to these events. Scientific understanding developed from this work will assist with planning and management for future coastal hazards. 

 

In foreground, man rides a personal watercraft in the water near a beach, in background is an amusement park with carnival rides
Santa Cruz Main Beach bathymetric survey
View down to beach from coastal bluff looking at an all-terrain vehicle that has left very precise, perpendicular tire tracks.
Beach topographic survey with ATV
Man walks along the sandy edge of a river with very colorfully painted apartments in background.
Capitola State Beach mapping
Pelicans and seagulls stand on beach looking disinterested, while a man nearby walks along the beach toward the water.
Gathering topographic data of a beach
Two people on jet skis in the water with a large suspension bridge in the background.
Bathymetric survey on jet skis
3 close-up views of the toe of the Mud Creek landslide created from air photos after the landslide

Remote Sensing Coastal Change

We use remote-sensing technologies—such as aerial photography, satellite imagery, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and lidar (laser-based surveying)—to measure coastal change along U.S. shorelines.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides
Remote Sensing Coastal Change

Remote Sensing Coastal Change

We use remote-sensing technologies—such as aerial photography, satellite imagery, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and lidar (laser-based surveying)—to measure coastal change along U.S. shorelines.
Learn More
Mouth of the Elwha River during dam removal

Landscape Response to Disturbance

This project characterizes and measures sediment-related effects of landscape disturbances (such as major storms, drought, or wildfire) and river management. We focus primarily on the U.S. west coast, and our work relates to natural hazards and resource management.
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Sediment Lab Suite and Carbon Analysis Laboratory, Big Sur Landslides
Landscape Response to Disturbance

Landscape Response to Disturbance

This project characterizes and measures sediment-related effects of landscape disturbances (such as major storms, drought, or wildfire) and river management. We focus primarily on the U.S. west coast, and our work relates to natural hazards and resource management.
Learn More

The 2026-2027 El Niño is projected to be the largest and most intense on record. Pacific storms during previous El Niño events have caused widespread coastal hazards along the California coast from flooding and erosion. The USGS is uniquely positioned to assist with coastal monitoring, data collection, science and communications with partners about these pending hazards.

The objectives of this project are to: 

  • Work with federal, state and regional partners to develop a collaborative science and monitoring plan to characterize the impacts of the 2026-2027 El Niño. 
  • Characterize the extent, patterns and trends of coastal change hazards associated with the 2026-2027 El Niño along the California coast through scientific monitoring.  
  • Provide relevant and actionable information about El Niño hazard patterns and trends to federal, state and regional partners that manage coastal lands and resources.  
  • Provide timely and relevant scientific results on the coastal hazard impacts of the 2026-2027 El Niño. 

The USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center has developed several monitoring techniques and data sets to track 2026-2027 El Niño impacts. These techniques include satellite remote sensing, aerial imaging and photogrammetry, ocean measurements of waves and currents, and beach topographic and bathymetric mapping. Coordinated scientific monitoring by the USGS of the 2026-2027 El Niño will be conducted along the broader California coast and also include site-specific studies in San Francisco, Santa Cruz and Ventura. These assessments are designed provide rapid characterizations of impacts to coastal managers across federal, state and regional governments responding to these events. Scientific understanding developed from this work will assist with planning and management for future coastal hazards. 

 

In foreground, man rides a personal watercraft in the water near a beach, in background is an amusement park with carnival rides
Santa Cruz Main Beach bathymetric survey
View down to beach from coastal bluff looking at an all-terrain vehicle that has left very precise, perpendicular tire tracks.
Beach topographic survey with ATV
Man walks along the sandy edge of a river with very colorfully painted apartments in background.
Capitola State Beach mapping
Pelicans and seagulls stand on beach looking disinterested, while a man nearby walks along the beach toward the water.
Gathering topographic data of a beach
Two people on jet skis in the water with a large suspension bridge in the background.
Bathymetric survey on jet skis
3 close-up views of the toe of the Mud Creek landslide created from air photos after the landslide

Remote Sensing Coastal Change

We use remote-sensing technologies—such as aerial photography, satellite imagery, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and lidar (laser-based surveying)—to measure coastal change along U.S. shorelines.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides
Remote Sensing Coastal Change

Remote Sensing Coastal Change

We use remote-sensing technologies—such as aerial photography, satellite imagery, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and lidar (laser-based surveying)—to measure coastal change along U.S. shorelines.
Learn More
Mouth of the Elwha River during dam removal

Landscape Response to Disturbance

This project characterizes and measures sediment-related effects of landscape disturbances (such as major storms, drought, or wildfire) and river management. We focus primarily on the U.S. west coast, and our work relates to natural hazards and resource management.
By
Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Sediment Lab Suite and Carbon Analysis Laboratory, Big Sur Landslides
Landscape Response to Disturbance

Landscape Response to Disturbance

This project characterizes and measures sediment-related effects of landscape disturbances (such as major storms, drought, or wildfire) and river management. We focus primarily on the U.S. west coast, and our work relates to natural hazards and resource management.
Learn More
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