Publications

On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region. Although the region was then sparsely populated, this quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California's history. Recent studies show that such powerful Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists describe this fault...

In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of...

The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake is perhaps the landmark event in the history of earthquake science. It began with a foreshock at 5:12 a.m. local time in the morning of 18 April 1906. Some 30 sec later, the main event initiated on the San Andreas fault, just off the San Francisco coast (Lawson, 1908). Within 90 sec, nearly 480 km of the San Andreas fault ruptured (see Fig. 1)...

The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) relationships for shallow crustal earthquakes in the western United States predict a rotated geometric mean of horizontal spectral demand, termed GMRotI50, and not maximum spectral demand. Differences between strike-normal, strike-parallel, geometric-mean, and maximum spectral demands in the near-fault region are investigated using 147 pairs of...

A long sequence of earthquakes, eight with magnitudes between 5 and 6, struck the Umbria and Marche regions of central Italy between September 26, 1997 and July 1998. The earthquake swarm caused severe structural damage, particularly to masonry buildings, and resulted in the loss of twelve lives and about 150 injuries. The source of the events was a single seismogenic structure that...

The Philippine Sea and Pacific plate slabs both subduct beneath Tokyo, and so their configuration and seismic potential have been subject to intensive study. Previous work suggests that the Philippine Sea slab extends up to 100 km northwest of Tokyo and subducts to a depth of 90 km beneath the Kanto basin, where it is folded against the underlying Pacific slab. Here we evaluate seismic...

We have used tectonic, geologic, and seismologic observations to reevaluate the mechanisms and seismotectonic significance of the two great (Mw = 8.1 and 8.2) September 1899 Yakutat Bay earthquakes. In their comprehensive study of these earthquakes between 1905 and 1910, Tarr and Martin (1912) showed that these events were accompanied by shoreline changes in Yakutat Bay that ranged from...

We report on a time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for Alaska and the Aleutians to complement our recently completed time-independent map. Whereas the time-independent map treats all sources as statistically independent, the time-dependent analysis is based on calculations of the conditional probability of occurrence for the next 50 years by using a Brownian Passage Time model for the...

The Central Indian Suture (CIS) is a mega-shear zone extending for hundreds of kilometers across central India. Reprocessing of deep seismic reflection data acquired across the CIS was carried out using workstation-based commercial software. The data distinctly indicate different reflectivity characteristics northwest and southeast of the CIS. Reflections northwest of the CIS...

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake...

At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California...

We apply a kinematic finite-fault inversion scheme to Pnl displacement waveforms recorded at 14 regional stations (Δ