Hydrogeomorphic history, hydrodynamic conditions, and simulations of water levels and velocities from varying lake levels and streamflow for the Sheboygan Rivermouth and area of concern, Wisconsin

In 2011–13, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study of the hydrogeomorphic setting and hydrodynamic conditions of the lower Sheboygan River and island complex within the backwater zone of Lake Michigan. Analyses of historical aerial photographs from 1938–2010 indicated that the Wildwood Islands complex had experienced mainly erosion and what was mainly one island in 1938 had eroded into about ten smaller islands and bars by 2010. Water levels, velocity and sedimentation patterns in the Sheboygan River mouth are affected by Lake Michigan water levels and seiche-related flow reversals for a potential river length of over 7 km. During the summer of 2012, when water levels in Lake Michigan were below the low water datum, seiche-related water-level fluctuations had a general range of 0.2 m and extended to just upstream of the Wildwood Islands complex, with greater variability in amplitude and frequency in the spring and fall months than in the summer. The low water level associated with the trough of a 60-90-minute seiche-related oscillation was sometimes 0.6 m lower than the low water datum. Runoff events produced river water levels during spring melt or storms that were 0.6 m above coincident Lake Michigan water levels. Frequent ice jams in the winter and early spring of 2012-13 raised river water levels to near the Lake Michigan ordinary high-water mark even though Lake Michigan water levels were at near record lows. Results from trends analyses from 1916 through 2008 indicated average annual streamflow and low flows were increasing in the Sheboygan River, but floods with an annual exceedance probability of 1 percent did not change. Simulations of a range of combinations of Lake Michigan water levels with river flows indicated that a variety of velocity patterns and water levels are possible near the Wildwood Islands complex. Simulated velocities ranged from 0 m/s during high lake levels and small river flows to 2 m/s during high lake levels and floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. Silt deposition recorded in sediment cores matched locations of flow divergence in the model simulations. Time lapse photography confirmed flow reversals in the vicinity of the Wildwood Islands complex from frequent seiche oscillations. The study illustrates the large range in variability in water levels and velocities over short periods of time, and that the lake-effect zone can be greatly extended upstream during high lake levels for low-gradient rivermouth environments.