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Karen C. Rice, PhD

My research interests are in watershed biogeochemical processes, specifically in identifying the hydrologic and anthropogenic drivers of those processes. My research focuses on the status and trends of stream flow and stream-water quality in response to stressors, including air pollution, climatic variability, and anthropogenic land-use influences.  

Recent highlights of the impact of my science on society include invited speaking engagements at the Cosmos Club for the Geological Society of Washington, D.C.; a NASA-sponsored public panel discussion in Boulder, Co., along with Jim Hansen, Brian Toon, and Bill Nye (the Science Guy); multiple National Public Radio interviews and broadcasts; and news coverage in The Washington Post, The Baltimore Sun, USA Today, and the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Most of my research has been published in Environmental Science & Technology and Water Resources Research, but other outlets include Applied Geochemistry, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Atmospheric Environment, Chemical Geology, Climatic Change, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Hydrological Processes, and Journal of Hydrology.

I hold a joint appointment as Research Hydrologist with USGS and Research Faculty in the Department of Environmental Sciences at University of Virginia.

Education and Certifications

  • B.S. in Geology from James Madison University

  • M.S. in Geology from Utah State University

  • Ph.D. in Environmental Sciences from the University of Virginia

Science and Products

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Severn River, Annapolis, Maryland, a tributary to Chesapeake Bay, showing high sediment

Climate Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Effects on Riverine Discharge, Ecosystems, and Water Quality

The 64,000-square mile watershed that drains to the Chesapeake Bay is highly populated and has diverse land use, including forested, agricultural, and urbanized areas. Increased precipitation in the eastern United States over the last 100 years has affected stream flow and thus the loading of pollutants delivered to the bay. Such pollutants as suspended sediment and dissolved phosphorus and...
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center
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Climate Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Effects on Riverine Discharge, Ecosystems, and Water Quality

The 64,000-square mile watershed that drains to the Chesapeake Bay is highly populated and has diverse land use, including forested, agricultural, and urbanized areas. Increased precipitation in the eastern United States over the last 100 years has affected stream flow and thus the loading of pollutants delivered to the bay. Such pollutants as suspended sediment and dissolved phosphorus and...
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Appalachian Trail sampling sites on map and photo of a stream on the trail

Appalachian Trail MEGA-Transect Atmospheric Deposition Effects Study

The Appalachian Trail (AT), a 14-state footpath from Maine to Georgia, is a unit of the National Park Service that is cooperatively managed and maintained by the National Park Service (NPS), the Appalachian Trail Conservancy, AT Club volunteers, the USDA Forest Service, and other public land-management agencies. Upper elevation and ridge-top ecosystems, which comprise much of the trail corrido
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New York Water Science Center
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Appalachian Trail MEGA-Transect Atmospheric Deposition Effects Study

The Appalachian Trail (AT), a 14-state footpath from Maine to Georgia, is a unit of the National Park Service that is cooperatively managed and maintained by the National Park Service (NPS), the Appalachian Trail Conservancy, AT Club volunteers, the USDA Forest Service, and other public land-management agencies. Upper elevation and ridge-top ecosystems, which comprise much of the trail corrido
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Map of stream sites and temperature trends (1960-2010) in the Chesapeake Bay region

Stream temperature rising throughout the Chesapeake Bay region

U.S. Geological Survey research, published in the journal Climatic Change
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Chesapeake Bay Activities
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Stream temperature rising throughout the Chesapeake Bay region

U.S. Geological Survey research, published in the journal Climatic Change
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Selected inputs for examining the complex relations between climate and streamflow in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Streams provide water for human activities and consumption in much of the world. Streamflow is largely controlled by climate forces, therefore it is likely sensitive to climate changes. We analyzed daily air temperature (AT), precipitation (P), and stream discharge (Q) metrics for 124 watersheds in Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina, United States, from 1981 through 2020. Spatial-raster datase
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Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Fort Belvoir, Virginia, stream-water, streambed-sediment, and soil data collected in 2019

Field parameters and chemical-analysis results of stream water, streambed sediment, and soil data collected during 2019 at Fort Belvoir, Virginia are presented.
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Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center
Chesapeake Bay coast at St. Michaels, Maryland
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Chesapeake Bay coast at St. Michaels, Maryland
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Groundwater hydrology and chemistry of Jamestown Island, Virginia—Potential effects of tides, storm surges, and sea-level rise on archaeological, cultural, and ecological resources

As the site of the first permanent English settlement in North America in 1607, Jamestown Island, Colonial National Historical Park (COLO), Virginia, contains a rich archaeological record that extends from the Paleoindian period (15,000 to 8,000 years ago) through the 20th century. The island is located on the lower James River near the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Jamestown Island vegetation is domin
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Kurt J. McCoy, Karen C. Rice, Ellyn Rickles, Dave Frederick, Jennifer Cramer, Dorothy Geyer
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Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Chemical constituent concentrations in stream water, streambed sediment, and soils of Fort Belvoir, Virginia—A characterization of ambient conditions in 2019

IntroductionThe U.S. Army Fort Belvoir (FTBL) installation is on the banks of the Potomac River in Fairfax County, northeastern Virginia. The installation was founded by the U.S. Army during World War I. It has been home to a variety of military organizations over the course of its more than 100-year history and currently houses more than 145 mission partners. The installation consists of two nonc
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Karen C. Rice, Douglas B. Chambers
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Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Chronic and episodic acidification of streams along the Appalachian Trail corridor, eastern United States

Acidic atmospheric deposition has adversely affected aquatic ecosystems globally. As emissions and deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) have declined in recent decades across North America and Europe, ecosystem recovery is evident in many surface waters. However, persistent chronic and episodic acidification remain important concerns in vulnerable regions. We evaluated acidification in 269 he
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Douglas A. Burns, Todd McDonnell, Karen C. Rice, Gregory B. Lawrence, Timothy Sullivan
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Water Resources Mission Area, New York Water Science Center

Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term prec
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Karen C. Rice, Doug L. Moyer, Aaron L. Mills
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Water Resources Mission Area, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Air- and stream-water-temperature trends in the Chesapeake Bay region, 1960-2014

Water temperature is a basic, but important, measure of the condition of all aquatic environments, including the flowing waters in the streams that drain our landscape and the receiving waters of those streams. Climatic conditions have a strong influence on water temperature, which is therefore naturally variable both in time and across the landscape. Changes to natural water-temperature regimes,
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John D. Jastram, Karen C. Rice
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Water Resources Mission Area, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities

Acidic deposition along the Appalachian Trail corridor and its effects on acid-sensitive terrestrial and aquatic resources

The Appalachian National Scenic Trail (AT), a unit of the National Park Service (NPS), spans nearly 2,200 miles from Georgia to Maine, encompassing a diverse range of ecosystems. Acidic deposition (acid rain) threatens the AT’s natural resources. Acid rain is a result of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) compounds produced from fossil fuel combustion, motor vehicles, and agricultural practices. The AT i
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Gregory B. Lawrence, Timothy J. Sullivan, Douglas A. Burns, Scott W. Bailey, Bernard J. Cosby, Martin Dovciak, Holly A. Ewing, Todd C. McDonnell, Rakesh Minocha, Rachel Riemann, Juliana Quant, Karen C. Rice, Jason Siemion, Kathleen C. Weathers
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Water Resources Mission Area, New York Water Science Center, Pennsylvania Water Science Center, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960–2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961–1985 and 1985–2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971–2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Stat
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Karen C. Rice, John D. Jastram
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Water Resources Mission Area, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Synthesis of thirty years of surface water quality and aquatic biota data in Shenandoah National Park: Collaboration between the US Geological Survey and the National Park Service

The eastern United States has been the recipient of acidic atmospheric deposition (hereinafter, “acid rain”) for many decades. Deleterious effects of acid rain on natural resources have been well documented for surface water (e.g., Likens et al. 1996; Stoddard et al. 2001), soils (Bailey et al. 2005), forest health (Long et al. 2009), and habitat suitability for stream biota (Baker et al. 1993). S
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Karen C. Rice, John D. Jastram, John E. B. Wofford, James P. Schaberl
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Water Resources Mission Area, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Decreased atmospheric sulfur deposition across the southeastern U.S.: When will watersheds release stored sulfate?

Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the atmosphere lead to atmospheric deposition of sulfate (SO42-), which is the dominant strong acid anion causing acidification of surface waters and soils in the eastern United States (U.S.). Since passage of the Clean Air Act and its Amendments, atmospheric deposition of SO2 in this region has declined by over 80%, but few corresponding decreases in stream-wa
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Karen C. Rice, Todd M. Scanlon, Jason A. Lynch, Bernard J. Cosby
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Water Resources Mission Area, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

From headwaters to coast: Influence of human activities on water quality of the Potomac River Estuary

The natural aging process of Chesapeake Bay and its tributary estuaries has been accelerated by human activities around the shoreline and within the watershed, increasing sediment and nutrient loads delivered to the bay. Riverine nutrients cause algal growth in the bay leading to reductions in light penetration with consequent declines in sea grass growth, smothering of bottom-dwelling organisms,
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Suzanne B. Bricker, Karen C. Rice, Owen P. Bricker
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Water Resources Mission Area, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Comparison of mineral weathering and biomass nutrient uptake in two small forested watersheds underlain by quartzite bedrock, Catoctin Mountain, Maryland, USA

To quantify chemical weathering and biological uptake, mass-balance calculations were performed on two small forested watersheds located in the Blue Ridge Physiographic Province in north-central Maryland, USA. Both watersheds, Bear Branch (BB) and Fishing Creek Tributary (FCT), are underlain by relatively unreactive quartzite bedrock. Such unreactive bedrock and associated low chemical-weathering
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Karen C. Rice, Jason R. Price
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Water Resources Mission Area, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center

Stream water temperature limits occupancy of salamanders in mid-Atlantic protected areas

Stream ecosystems are particularly sensitive to urbanization, and tolerance of water-quality parameters is likely important to population persistence of stream salamanders. Forecasted climate and landscape changes may lead to significant changes in stream flow, chemical composition, and temperatures in coming decades. Protected areas where landscape alterations are minimized will therefore become
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Evan H. Campbell Grant, Amber N. M. Wiewel, Karen C. Rice
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Water Resources Mission Area, Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center
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Chesapeake Bay Region Streams are Warming

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. -- The majority of streams in the Chesapeake Bay region are warming, and that increase appears to be driven largely by rising air...

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Oyster Aquaculture Could Significantly Improve Potomac River Estuary Water Quality

Oyster aquaculture in the Potomac River estuary could result in significant improvements to water quality, according to a new NOAA and U.S. Geological...

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