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Lucas Bair

Lucas Bair is an economist with the Southwest Biological Science Center.

Science and Products

Terrestrial survey operations, Birdseye Expedition "X", at LCR Confluence

Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Southwest Biological Science Center
Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
Learn More
Anglers departing the boat dock at Lees Ferry, AZ with canyon walls in the background.

Economics of Outdoor Recreation

Economic research at Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center is used to determine economic benefits of outdoor recreation in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area below Glen Canyon Dam and in Grand Canyon National Park, as affected by operation of Glen Canyon Dam. This research identifies recreationists’ preferences for attributes associated with their trips, spending that occurs regionally...
By
Southwest Biological Science Center
Economics of Outdoor Recreation

Economics of Outdoor Recreation

Economic research at Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center is used to determine economic benefits of outdoor recreation in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area below Glen Canyon Dam and in Grand Canyon National Park, as affected by operation of Glen Canyon Dam. This research identifies recreationists’ preferences for attributes associated with their trips, spending that occurs regionally...
Learn More

Composite relative risk indices for dreissenid mussel introductions in the Missouri River Basin: scripts and output Composite relative risk indices for dreissenid mussel introductions in the Missouri River Basin: scripts and output

This data product develops a composite relative risk index (CRR) for watersheds within the Missouri River Basin, a region in the U.S. on the front line of dreissenid spread. The CRR is developed using datasets in order to account for the direct and indirect damages from a potential infestation along with the risk of an infestation occurring with a HUC10 watershed. Included are indices...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Evaluations of FSim burn probability maps for pyromes of the conterminous United States based on observed wildfire perimeters Evaluations of FSim burn probability maps for pyromes of the conterminous United States based on observed wildfire perimeters

The FSim wildfire simulation model is widely used to generate estimates of burn probability (BP). However, few studies have compared BP models to subsequent wildfires to assess their suitability for estimating near-future wildfire risk. Here, we compared the U.S.D.A. Forest Service’s publicly available BP map for the conterminous U.S. (Short et al., 2020; Dillon et al., 2023) to observed...
By
Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Predicted recreation economics under different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases Predicted recreation economics under different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases

These data were compiled to predict economic impacts to angling in Glen Canyon and whitewater rafting in Grand Canyon. The objective of our study was to estimate recreation impacts, or changes in consumer surplus, under different future Interim Guidelines sEIS and LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data include monthly impacts in nominal 2022 dollars. These data were created for operations...
By
Southwest Biological Science Center

Predicted hydropower impacts of different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases Predicted hydropower impacts of different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases

These data were compiled to predict hourly Glen Canyon Dam operations and hydropower impacts. The objective of our study was to estimate hydropower impacts under different future LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data represent hourly outflow in cubic feet per second, generation in megawatt hours, and economic value of hydropower in nominal dollars. These data were created for operations at...
By
Southwest Biological Science Center

The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory (ver. 2.0, September 2024) The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory (ver. 2.0, September 2024)

The Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Wildland Fire and USGS created the The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory to meet the Monitoring, Maintenance, and Treatment Plan requirements under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). It provides an inventory of key national, regional, and state wildfire risk and fire hazard assessments useful for understanding different
By
Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Human Factors of Water Availability in the Delaware River Basin Human Factors of Water Availability in the Delaware River Basin

Human factors that influence water availability in the Basin were discovered by reviewing hundreds of published literature items and articles from the literature following an extensive keyword search. The different factors were drawn from reviewing the literature, and datasets to support the factor were researched across open data catalogs and the world wide web. Data related to the...
By
Water Resources Mission Area
Map of Missouri River Basin showing risk of Dreissenid Mussel infestation
Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin
Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin
Map of Missouri River Basin showing risk of Dreissenid Mussel infestation

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Example of model results for the Missouri River Basin, illustrating that the risk of infestation is not equal across a watershed. This reinforces the value of using these risk assessment models in places like the Columbia River basin so monitoring, control and mitigation actions can be targeted.

By
Western Fisheries Research Center
Map of Missouri River Basin showing risk of Dreissenid Mussel infestation

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Example of model results for the Missouri River Basin, illustrating that the risk of infestation is not equal across a watershed. This reinforces the value of using these risk assessment models in places like the Columbia River basin so monitoring, control and mitigation actions can be targeted.

By
Western Fisheries Research Center
Filter Total Items: 29

Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous United States Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous United States

Many regions of the world have seen an increase in highly destructive wildfires, driven by well-documented increases in burned area and growth of housing in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which exposes more homes to fire. However, it is unclear whether wildfires are also becoming more destructive due to changes in wildfire behavior or in the development patterns of exposed...
Authors
Amanda Renee Carlson, Todd Hawbaker, Miranda H. Mockrin, Volker C. Radeloff, Lucas Bair, Mike Caggiano, James Meldrum, Patricia Alexandre, H. Anu Kramer, Paul F. Steblein
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center

Status report on the Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Metrics for the Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program Status report on the Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Metrics for the Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program

No abstract available.
Authors
Helen C. Fairley, Gregory Mark Anderson, Andrew Alan Schultz, Joel B. Sankey, Joshua Caster, Lauren Lynn Tango, Bridget Deemer, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Emily C. Palmquist, Maria C. Dzul, Kimberly L. Dibble, David Ward, David L. Rogowski, Emily C. Omana Smith, Jeffrey Arnold, Brian D. Healy, Charles Yackulic, Lucas Bair, David J. Topping, Paul Grams, Katherine Anne Chapman, Robert B. Tusso, Dale Fonken, Josh Korman, Lindsay Erika Hansen, Benjamin John Miller, John M. Fennell, Drew Elliot Eppehimer, Claudia James Dimartini, Nathaniel D. Bransky
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River

Climate change and increasing societal demands for water pose challenges for the management of dam-regulated rivers. Management decisions impact the environment of these rivers, creating the need to balance societal needs with environmental conservation. Here we present a modeling framework that optimizes resource benefits within imposed water use goals for the Colorado River in Grand...
Authors
Gerard Lewis Salter, David J. Topping, Jianghao Wang, John C. Schmidt, Charles Yackulic, Lucas Bair, Erich R. Mueller, Paul E. Grams
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

The Benefits Knowledges Learning Framework: A tool for learning across diverse knowledge systems in ecosystem valuation The Benefits Knowledges Learning Framework: A tool for learning across diverse knowledge systems in ecosystem valuation

Sustainable and just environmental management depends on meaningful consideration of the plural values of nature, as they arise in association with diverse worldviews and understandings of well-being. To achieve value pluralism in decision-making, we must also attend to knowledge pluralism, in terms of recognizing the validity and decision relevance of a broader suite of knowledge forms...
Authors
Kristin R. Hoelting, Doreen E. Martinez, Lucas Bair, Rudy Schuster, Michael C. Gavin
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

Evaluating a simulation-based wildfire burn probability map for the conterminous US Evaluating a simulation-based wildfire burn probability map for the conterminous US

Background Wildfire simulation models are used to derive maps of burn probability (BP) based on fuels, weather, topography and ignition locations, and BP maps are key components of wildfire risk assessments. Aims Few studies have compared BP maps with real-world fires to evaluate their suitability for near-future risk assessment. Here, we evaluated a BP map for the conterminous US based...
Authors
Amanda Renee Carlson, Todd Hawbaker, Lucas Bair, Chad Michael Hoffman, James Meldrum, L. Scott Baggett, Paul F. Steblein
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Wildland Fire Science

Don’t move a mussel: The role of key environmental drivers and management scale in assessing spatial variation in dreissenid spread risk in the Missouri River Basin Don’t move a mussel: The role of key environmental drivers and management scale in assessing spatial variation in dreissenid spread risk in the Missouri River Basin

The spread of non-native freshwater mussels in North America is a growing threat that has already resulted in substantial ecological and economic damage to infested areas. A primary vector by which invasive mussels spread is watercraft that are transported over land from an infested waterbody to an uninfested waterbody. Management efforts such as watercraft inspection and detection...
Authors
Joseph Raymond, Lucas Bair, Timothy D. Counihan, Wesley Daniel, Sofie Duntugan, Matthew Neilson, Michael R. Springborn
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

USGS Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse USGS Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse

This online tool was designed to help identify which wildfire hazard and risk assessments are available across the United States. It provides information about available risk assessments and links to assessment data when publicly available.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

webDR: Spatial exploration of invasion risk of dreissenid mussels in the Missouri River Basin at the HUC10 watershed scale webDR: Spatial exploration of invasion risk of dreissenid mussels in the Missouri River Basin at the HUC10 watershed scale

The spread of non-native dreissenid mussels across North America has resulted in significant ecological and economic damage. Management efforts implementing early detection efforts (including watercraft inspections) may help reduce potential spread and new introductions, but optimizing effective deployment of these efforts in a resource-constrained environment is challenging. Raymond et...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
RESEARCH BRIEF: Cost- benefit analysis of vegetation removal + seeding

RESEARCH BRIEF: Cost- benefit analysis of vegetation removal + seeding

Weighing costs relative to outcomes: woody and invasive plant removal followed by seeding in shrublands and woodlands.

New study by RAMPS...

Read Article

Science and Products

Terrestrial survey operations, Birdseye Expedition "X", at LCR Confluence

Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Southwest Biological Science Center
Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows

Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...
Learn More
Anglers departing the boat dock at Lees Ferry, AZ with canyon walls in the background.

Economics of Outdoor Recreation

Economic research at Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center is used to determine economic benefits of outdoor recreation in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area below Glen Canyon Dam and in Grand Canyon National Park, as affected by operation of Glen Canyon Dam. This research identifies recreationists’ preferences for attributes associated with their trips, spending that occurs regionally...
By
Southwest Biological Science Center
Economics of Outdoor Recreation

Economics of Outdoor Recreation

Economic research at Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center is used to determine economic benefits of outdoor recreation in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area below Glen Canyon Dam and in Grand Canyon National Park, as affected by operation of Glen Canyon Dam. This research identifies recreationists’ preferences for attributes associated with their trips, spending that occurs regionally...
Learn More

Composite relative risk indices for dreissenid mussel introductions in the Missouri River Basin: scripts and output Composite relative risk indices for dreissenid mussel introductions in the Missouri River Basin: scripts and output

This data product develops a composite relative risk index (CRR) for watersheds within the Missouri River Basin, a region in the U.S. on the front line of dreissenid spread. The CRR is developed using datasets in order to account for the direct and indirect damages from a potential infestation along with the risk of an infestation occurring with a HUC10 watershed. Included are indices...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Evaluations of FSim burn probability maps for pyromes of the conterminous United States based on observed wildfire perimeters Evaluations of FSim burn probability maps for pyromes of the conterminous United States based on observed wildfire perimeters

The FSim wildfire simulation model is widely used to generate estimates of burn probability (BP). However, few studies have compared BP models to subsequent wildfires to assess their suitability for estimating near-future wildfire risk. Here, we compared the U.S.D.A. Forest Service’s publicly available BP map for the conterminous U.S. (Short et al., 2020; Dillon et al., 2023) to observed...
By
Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Predicted recreation economics under different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases Predicted recreation economics under different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases

These data were compiled to predict economic impacts to angling in Glen Canyon and whitewater rafting in Grand Canyon. The objective of our study was to estimate recreation impacts, or changes in consumer surplus, under different future Interim Guidelines sEIS and LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data include monthly impacts in nominal 2022 dollars. These data were created for operations...
By
Southwest Biological Science Center

Predicted hydropower impacts of different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases Predicted hydropower impacts of different management scenarios for Lake Powell releases

These data were compiled to predict hourly Glen Canyon Dam operations and hydropower impacts. The objective of our study was to estimate hydropower impacts under different future LTEMP sEIS alternatives. These data represent hourly outflow in cubic feet per second, generation in megawatt hours, and economic value of hydropower in nominal dollars. These data were created for operations at...
By
Southwest Biological Science Center

The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory (ver. 2.0, September 2024) The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory (ver. 2.0, September 2024)

The Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Wildland Fire and USGS created the The Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Inventory to meet the Monitoring, Maintenance, and Treatment Plan requirements under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). It provides an inventory of key national, regional, and state wildfire risk and fire hazard assessments useful for understanding different
By
Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

Human Factors of Water Availability in the Delaware River Basin Human Factors of Water Availability in the Delaware River Basin

Human factors that influence water availability in the Basin were discovered by reviewing hundreds of published literature items and articles from the literature following an extensive keyword search. The different factors were drawn from reviewing the literature, and datasets to support the factor were researched across open data catalogs and the world wide web. Data related to the...
By
Water Resources Mission Area
Map of Missouri River Basin showing risk of Dreissenid Mussel infestation
Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin
Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin
Map of Missouri River Basin showing risk of Dreissenid Mussel infestation

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Example of model results for the Missouri River Basin, illustrating that the risk of infestation is not equal across a watershed. This reinforces the value of using these risk assessment models in places like the Columbia River basin so monitoring, control and mitigation actions can be targeted.

By
Western Fisheries Research Center
Map of Missouri River Basin showing risk of Dreissenid Mussel infestation

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Mussel Infestation Risk for the Missouri River Basin

Example of model results for the Missouri River Basin, illustrating that the risk of infestation is not equal across a watershed. This reinforces the value of using these risk assessment models in places like the Columbia River basin so monitoring, control and mitigation actions can be targeted.

By
Western Fisheries Research Center
Filter Total Items: 29

Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous United States Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous United States

Many regions of the world have seen an increase in highly destructive wildfires, driven by well-documented increases in burned area and growth of housing in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which exposes more homes to fire. However, it is unclear whether wildfires are also becoming more destructive due to changes in wildfire behavior or in the development patterns of exposed...
Authors
Amanda Renee Carlson, Todd Hawbaker, Miranda H. Mockrin, Volker C. Radeloff, Lucas Bair, Mike Caggiano, James Meldrum, Patricia Alexandre, H. Anu Kramer, Paul F. Steblein
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center

Status report on the Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Metrics for the Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program Status report on the Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Metrics for the Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program

No abstract available.
Authors
Helen C. Fairley, Gregory Mark Anderson, Andrew Alan Schultz, Joel B. Sankey, Joshua Caster, Lauren Lynn Tango, Bridget Deemer, Theodore Kennedy, Anya Metcalfe, Emily C. Palmquist, Maria C. Dzul, Kimberly L. Dibble, David Ward, David L. Rogowski, Emily C. Omana Smith, Jeffrey Arnold, Brian D. Healy, Charles Yackulic, Lucas Bair, David J. Topping, Paul Grams, Katherine Anne Chapman, Robert B. Tusso, Dale Fonken, Josh Korman, Lindsay Erika Hansen, Benjamin John Miller, John M. Fennell, Drew Elliot Eppehimer, Claudia James Dimartini, Nathaniel D. Bransky
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River

Climate change and increasing societal demands for water pose challenges for the management of dam-regulated rivers. Management decisions impact the environment of these rivers, creating the need to balance societal needs with environmental conservation. Here we present a modeling framework that optimizes resource benefits within imposed water use goals for the Colorado River in Grand...
Authors
Gerard Lewis Salter, David J. Topping, Jianghao Wang, John C. Schmidt, Charles Yackulic, Lucas Bair, Erich R. Mueller, Paul E. Grams
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

The Benefits Knowledges Learning Framework: A tool for learning across diverse knowledge systems in ecosystem valuation The Benefits Knowledges Learning Framework: A tool for learning across diverse knowledge systems in ecosystem valuation

Sustainable and just environmental management depends on meaningful consideration of the plural values of nature, as they arise in association with diverse worldviews and understandings of well-being. To achieve value pluralism in decision-making, we must also attend to knowledge pluralism, in terms of recognizing the validity and decision relevance of a broader suite of knowledge forms...
Authors
Kristin R. Hoelting, Doreen E. Martinez, Lucas Bair, Rudy Schuster, Michael C. Gavin
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

Evaluating a simulation-based wildfire burn probability map for the conterminous US Evaluating a simulation-based wildfire burn probability map for the conterminous US

Background Wildfire simulation models are used to derive maps of burn probability (BP) based on fuels, weather, topography and ignition locations, and BP maps are key components of wildfire risk assessments. Aims Few studies have compared BP maps with real-world fires to evaluate their suitability for near-future risk assessment. Here, we evaluated a BP map for the conterminous US based...
Authors
Amanda Renee Carlson, Todd Hawbaker, Lucas Bair, Chad Michael Hoffman, James Meldrum, L. Scott Baggett, Paul F. Steblein
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Wildland Fire Science

Don’t move a mussel: The role of key environmental drivers and management scale in assessing spatial variation in dreissenid spread risk in the Missouri River Basin Don’t move a mussel: The role of key environmental drivers and management scale in assessing spatial variation in dreissenid spread risk in the Missouri River Basin

The spread of non-native freshwater mussels in North America is a growing threat that has already resulted in substantial ecological and economic damage to infested areas. A primary vector by which invasive mussels spread is watercraft that are transported over land from an infested waterbody to an uninfested waterbody. Management efforts such as watercraft inspection and detection...
Authors
Joseph Raymond, Lucas Bair, Timothy D. Counihan, Wesley Daniel, Sofie Duntugan, Matthew Neilson, Michael R. Springborn
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Southwest Biological Science Center

USGS Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse USGS Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse

This online tool was designed to help identify which wildfire hazard and risk assessments are available across the United States. It provides information about available risk assessments and links to assessment data when publicly available.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

webDR: Spatial exploration of invasion risk of dreissenid mussels in the Missouri River Basin at the HUC10 watershed scale webDR: Spatial exploration of invasion risk of dreissenid mussels in the Missouri River Basin at the HUC10 watershed scale

The spread of non-native dreissenid mussels across North America has resulted in significant ecological and economic damage. Management efforts implementing early detection efforts (including watercraft inspections) may help reduce potential spread and new introductions, but optimizing effective deployment of these efforts in a resource-constrained environment is challenging. Raymond et...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
RESEARCH BRIEF: Cost- benefit analysis of vegetation removal + seeding

RESEARCH BRIEF: Cost- benefit analysis of vegetation removal + seeding

Weighing costs relative to outcomes: woody and invasive plant removal followed by seeding in shrublands and woodlands.

New study by RAMPS...

Read Article
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