Mark Petersen (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to...
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as...
Data release for the lower seismogenic depth model of western U.S. earthquakes Data release for the lower seismogenic depth model of western U.S. earthquakes
A model of the lower seismogenic depth distribution of earthquakes in the western United States was developed to support models for seismic hazard assessment that will be included in the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model. This data release presents a recalibration using the hypocentral depths of events M>1 from the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog...
Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii
The 2021 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii succeeds the twenty-year-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the ground shaking forecasts. Output from the model includes probabilistic seismic hazard curves calculated for a 0.02° x 0.02° grid of latitude/longitude locations across Hawaii. The new model provides an expanded...
Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site...
Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023, version 1.0 Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023, version 1.0
This Data Release contains preliminary versions of two related databases: 1) A fault sections database ("NSHM2023_FaultSections_v1"), which depicts the geometry of faults capable of hosting independent earthquakes, and 2) An earthquake geology site information database ("NSHM2023_EQGeoDB_v1"), which contains fault slip-rate constraints at points. These databases were prepared in...
Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data...
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014 Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014
The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities...
Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008 Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008
Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic...
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States
This publication consists of six map sheets (titles and text included in this document, below), geospatial datasets, and metadata. The geospatial datasets consist of ArcInfo export files for the seismic-hazard point and polygon data shown on the sheets. Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and...
Filter Total Items: 72
A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, Jason M. Altekruse
The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model
US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast...
Authors
Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Peter J. Haeussler, Adrian Bender, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, James Andrew Smith, Richard W. Briggs, Robert C. Witter, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Demi Leafar Girot, Julie A. Herrick, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen
Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model
We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to...
Authors
Robert Edward Chase, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Mark D. Petersen
The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models
The US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used to calculate earthquake ground-shaking intensities for design and rehabilitation of structures in the United States. The most recent 2014 and 2018 versions of the NSHM for the conterminous United States included major updates to ground-motion models (GMMs) for active and stable crustal tectonic settings; however...
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Arthur D. Frankel, Erin A. Wirth, James Andrew Smith, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kyle Withers, Julie A. Herrick
Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model
Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential...
Authors
Kyle Withers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Nico Luco, Erin A. Wirth, Sanaz Rezaeian, Eric M. Thompson
The 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground-motion characterization for the conterminous United States The 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground-motion characterization for the conterminous United States
We update the ground-motion characterization for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. The update includes the use of new ground-motion models (GMMs) in the Cascadia subduction zone; an adjustment to the central and eastern United States (CEUS) GMMs to reduce misfits with observed data; an updated boundary for the application of GMMs for...
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Brad T. Aagaard, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Oliver S. Boyd, Arthur D. Frankel, Julie A. Herrick, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Kyle Withers
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to...
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as...
Data release for the lower seismogenic depth model of western U.S. earthquakes Data release for the lower seismogenic depth model of western U.S. earthquakes
A model of the lower seismogenic depth distribution of earthquakes in the western United States was developed to support models for seismic hazard assessment that will be included in the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model. This data release presents a recalibration using the hypocentral depths of events M>1 from the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog...
Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii Data Release for the 2021 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii
The 2021 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii succeeds the twenty-year-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the ground shaking forecasts. Output from the model includes probabilistic seismic hazard curves calculated for a 0.02° x 0.02° grid of latitude/longitude locations across Hawaii. The new model provides an expanded...
Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed Data Release for the 2018 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Where, Why, and How Much Probabilistic Ground Motion Maps Changed
This dataset presents where, why, and how much probabilistic ground motions have changed with the 2018 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) vs. the 2014 NSHM. In the central and eastern U.S., hazard changes are the result of updated ground motion models (further broken down by median and epistemic uncertainty, aleatory variability, and site...
Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023, version 1.0 Earthquake geology inputs for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) 2023, version 1.0
This Data Release contains preliminary versions of two related databases: 1) A fault sections database ("NSHM2023_FaultSections_v1"), which depicts the geometry of faults capable of hosting independent earthquakes, and 2) An earthquake geology site information database ("NSHM2023_EQGeoDB_v1"), which contains fault slip-rate constraints at points. These databases were prepared in...
Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America Seismic Hazard, Risk, and Design for South America
These data were calculated to estimate seismic hazard, risk, and design across South America using the latest data, models, and methods. The input data to the model, as well as the output data are available here. The input data includes a seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground-motion models. Output data...
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014 Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States, 2014
The maps presented here provide an update to the 2008 data contained in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3195 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3195/).Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States for 2014 portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities...
Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008 Seismic-Hazard Maps for the Conterminous United States, 2008
Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic...
Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States
This publication consists of six map sheets (titles and text included in this document, below), geospatial datasets, and metadata. The geospatial datasets consist of ArcInfo export files for the seismic-hazard point and polygon data shown on the sheets. Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and...
Filter Total Items: 72
A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly...
Authors
Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, Jason M. Altekruse
The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model
US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast...
Authors
Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Peter J. Haeussler, Adrian Bender, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, James Andrew Smith, Richard W. Briggs, Robert C. Witter, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Demi Leafar Girot, Julie A. Herrick, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen
Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model
We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to...
Authors
Robert Edward Chase, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Mark D. Petersen
The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models The 2023 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model: Subduction ground motion models
The US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used to calculate earthquake ground-shaking intensities for design and rehabilitation of structures in the United States. The most recent 2014 and 2018 versions of the NSHM for the conterminous United States included major updates to ground-motion models (GMMs) for active and stable crustal tectonic settings; however...
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Arthur D. Frankel, Erin A. Wirth, James Andrew Smith, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kyle Withers, Julie A. Herrick
Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model
Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential...
Authors
Kyle Withers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Nico Luco, Erin A. Wirth, Sanaz Rezaeian, Eric M. Thompson
The 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground-motion characterization for the conterminous United States The 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground-motion characterization for the conterminous United States
We update the ground-motion characterization for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. The update includes the use of new ground-motion models (GMMs) in the Cascadia subduction zone; an adjustment to the central and eastern United States (CEUS) GMMs to reduce misfits with observed data; an updated boundary for the application of GMMs for...
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Brad T. Aagaard, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Jason M. Altekruse, Oliver S. Boyd, Arthur D. Frankel, Julie A. Herrick, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison Shumway, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Kyle Withers
New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US New USGS map shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur in US
USGS scientists and our partners recently revealed the latest National Seismic Hazard Model, showing that nearly 75% of the United States could experience a damaging earthquake, emphasizing seismic hazards span a significant part of the country.