Peter Powers
Science and Products
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS...
Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard forecasts: Hawaii tectonic earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
The selection and weighting of ground‐motion models (GMMs) introduces a significant source of uncertainty in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Modeling Project (NSHMP) forecasts. In this study, we evaluate 18 candidate GMMs using instrumental ground‐motion observations of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5%‐damped...
McNamara, Daniel E.; Wolin, Emily; Powers, Peter M.; Shumway, Allison; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rekoske, John; Thompson, Eric M.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D. Evaluation of ground‐motion models for U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard models: 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, Mw 7.1 subduction zone earthquake sequence
Instrumental ground‐motion recordings from the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska (Mw">Mw 7.1), earthquake sequence provide an independent data set allowing us to evaluate the predictive power of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for intraslab earthquakes associated with the Alaska subduction zone. In this study, we evaluate 15 candidate GMMs using...
McNamara, Daniel E.; Wolin, Emily; Powers, Peter M.; Shumway, Allison; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rekoske, John; Thompson, Eric M.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D. Ground-motion amplification in Cook Inlet region, Alaska from intermediate-depth earthquakes, including the 2018 MW=7.1 Anchorage earthquake
We measure pseudospectral and peak ground motions from 44 intermediate‐depth Mw≥4.9">Mw≥4.9 earthquakes in the Cook Inlet region of southern Alaska, including those from the 2018 Mw">Mw 7.1 earthquake near Anchorage, to identify regional amplification features (0.1–5  s">0.1...
Moschetti, Morgan P.; Thompson, Eric M.; Rekoske, John; Hearne, Mike; Powers, Peter M.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Tape, Carl The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median...
Petersen, Mark D.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Frankel, Arthur; Rezaeian, Sanaz; McNamara, Daniel E.; Luco, Nicolas; Boyd, Oliver S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Thompson, Eric M.; Hoover, Susan M.; Clayton, Brandon; Field, Edward H.; Zeng, Yuehua Evaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.
Ground motion model (GMM) selection and weighting introduces a significant source of uncertainty in United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazard models. The increase in moderate moment magnitude induced earthquakes (Mw 4 to 5.8) in Oklahoma and Kansas since 2009, due to increased wastewater injection related to oil and gas production (...
McNamara, Daniel E.; Petersen, Mark D.; Thompson, Eric M.; Powers, Peter M.; Shumway, Allison; Hoover, Susan M.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Wolin, Emily Preliminary 2018 national seismic hazard model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard model for the conterminous U.S. will be updated in 2018 and 2020 to coincide with the Building Seismic Safety Council’s Project 17 timeline for development of new building code design criteria. The two closely timed updates are planned to allow more time for the Provisions Update Committee to...
Petersen, Mark D.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Mueller, Charles; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Moschetti, Morgan P.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Luco, Nicolas; Hoover, Susan M.; Rukstales, Kenneth S. Ground motions from induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas
Improved predictions of earthquake ground motions are critical to advancing seismic hazard analyses and earthquake response. The high seismicity rate from 2009 to 2016 in Oklahoma and Kansas provides an extensive data set for examining the ground motions from these events. We evaluate the ability of three suites of ground‐motion prediction...
Moschetti, Morgan P.; Thompson, Eric M.; Powers, Peter M.; Hoover, Susan M.; McNamara, Daniel E.
Additional period and site class maps for the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States
The 2014 update of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (2014 NSHM; Petersen and others, 2014, 2015) included probabilistic ground motion maps for 2 percent and 10 percent probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, derived from seismic hazard curves for peak ground...
Shumway, Allison; Petersen, Mark D.; Powers, Peter M.; Rezaeian, Sanaz The science, engineering applications, and policy implications of simulation-based PSHA
We summarize scientific methods for developing probabilistic seismic hazard assessments from 3-D earthquake ground motion simulations, describe current use of simulated ground motions for engineering applications, and discuss on-going efforts to incorporate these effects in the U.S. national seismic hazard model. The 3-D simulations provide...
Moschetti, Morgan P.; Chang, Sandra P.; Crouse, C.B; Frankel, Arthur; Graves, Robert; Puangnak, H; Luco, Nicolas; Goulet, Christine A.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Petersen, Mark D.; Callaghan, Scott; Jordan, T.H.; Milner, Kevin R. 2018 one‐year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes
This article describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2018 one‐year probabilistic seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. For consistency, the updated 2018 forecast is developed using the same probabilistic seismicity‐based methodology as applied in the two previous forecasts....
Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert A.; Shumway, Allison; Powers, Peter M.; Earle, Paul S.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Norbeck, Jack; Cochran, Elizabeth S. A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐...
Field, Edward H.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Page, Morgan T.; Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Biasi, Glenn; Parsons, Thomas E.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Weldon, Ray; Powers, Peter M.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Zeng, Yuehua; Bird, Peter; Felzer, Karen; van der Elst, Nicholas; Madden, Christopher; Arrowsmith, Ramon; Werner, Maximillan J.; Thatcher, Wayne R. Seismic source characterization for the 2014 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters...
Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter M.; Petersen, Mark D.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Chen, Rui; Field, Edward H.; Frankel, Arthur; Haller, Kathleen; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles S.; Wheeler, Russell; Zeng, Yuehua